Türkiye’de Sanayi ve Tarım Sektörlerinde Seragazı Emisyonlarının Belirleyicileri: İndeks Ayrıştırma Analizi

Year 2017, , 175 - 195, 01.06.2017

Mustafa Özçağ Burcu Yılmaz , Emrah Sofuoğlu

https://doi.org/10.33458/uidergisi.513242

Cited By: 4

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de 1990-2014 döneminde sanayi ve tarım sektörlerindeki seragazı emisyonlarında ortaya çıkan değişim LMDI yöntemi kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Söz konusu değişim, emisyonu etkileyen faktörler olarak literatürde genel kabul görmüş dört faktöre (emisyon-faktör etkisi, yoğunluk etkisi, yapısal etki ve faaliyet etkileri) ayrıştırılmıştır. Analiz sonuçları, sanayi ve tarım sektörlerinde seragazı emisyonundaki değişimin temel belirleyicisinin enerji yoğunluğu etkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Diğer taraftan, Türkiye’de 1990-2010 döneminde ekonomik büyüme ve seragazı emisyonları arasında aynı yönlü gerçekleşen bir değişmenin varlığı görülürken, 2010 yılından itibaren ekonomik büyüme rakamlarında oluşan artış oranı seragazı emisyonlarında meydana gelen artış oranından daha yüksek olmuş ve böylece değişkenler arasında ayrışma meydana gelmiştir.

Keywords

Seragazı Emisyonları, Indeks Ayrıştırma Analizi, LMDI, İklim Değişikliği, Türkiye

Determinants of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Industry and Agricultural Sectors in Turkey: Index Decomposition Analysis

Abstract

This study aims to analyze greenhouse gas emissions changes in industry and agricultural sectors by utilizing LMDI method over the period of 1990-2014 in Turkey. For this purpose, these changes have been decomposed to four factors (emissions-factor effect, intensity effect, structural effect and activity effect) generally accepted in the literature as factors affecting emissions. Analysis findings indicate that key determinants of greenhouse gas emissions in industry and agricultural sectors are energy intensity effect. On the other hand, according to the Decoupling Analyse, there is a same direction change between economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions in Turkey between the years of 1990- 2010. After 2010, the rate of increase occuring in the economic growth is higher than the rate of increase occuring in greenhouse gas emissions, and thus, decouplin in seen between the variables. 

Keywords

Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Index Decomposition Analysis, LMDI, Climate Change, Turkey

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