Bölgesel Güç Aktarımı ve Türkiye’nin Geleceği

Year 2016, Special Issue: Turkish Foreign Policy, 23 - 46, 01.12.2016

Birol Ali Yeşilada Osman Göktuğ Tanrıkulu

https://doi.org/10.33458/uidergisi.463082

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Bu çalışma Türkiye için bölgesel güç aktarımlarını incelemektedir. Yazarlar Türkiye’nin gelecekteki bölgesel ilişkilerini öngörebilmek için hem Güç Aktarımı hem de İnsani Kalkınma teorilerinden faydalanmışlardır. Sonuçlar Türkiye’nin AB, Rusya ve İran ile ilişkilerinde zorluklar yaşayacağını göstermektedir. Tahminler gelecekteki Türkiye-Rusya ve Türkiye-İran ilişkilerinde çatışma olasılığının yüksek olduğunu göstermektedir. İran’a kıyasla Rusya ile ilişkilerde çatışma riski daha yüksek gözükmektedir. Sadece AB’ye katılma senaryosu Türkiye’nin Rusya ve İran ile çatışma riskini azaltmaktadır. AB üyeliği Türkiye’nin zorlu bölgesel ilişkilerine istikrar getirebilmektedir. Diğer taraftan, İnsani Kalkınma Dinamikleri Türkiye’nin değerler bakımından Avrupa’nın önde gelen ülkelerinden giderek uzaklaşmakta olduğunu göstermektedir. Sekülerlik zayıflamakta, geleneksel değerler güçlenmektedir. İstatistiksel modeller, değerlerdeki yakınlaşmanın entegrasyondaki önemli faktörlerden biri olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu durum Türkiye’nin AB ile entegrasyon ihtimalinin çok zayıf olduğuna işaret etmektedir.

Keywords

Güç Aktarımları, İnsani Kalkınma, Bölgesel Hiyerarşi, Değerler, Entegrasyon

Regional Power Transition and the Future of Turkey

Abstract

This study analyzes the regional power transitions for Turkey. The authors utilize both the Power Transitions
Theory and the Human Development Theory to foresee Turkey’s future regional relations. The findings indicate
that Turkey’s relations with the EU, Russia and Iran will be quite challenging. According to the forecasting, the
probability of conflict between Turkey-Russia and Turkey-Iran will increase. Compared to Iran, Turkey’s propensity
of conflict with Russia will be higher. Only in a scenario of joining the EU, Turkey’s probability of conflict with
Russia and Iran decreases. EU membership stabilizes Turkey’s most challenging regional relationships. On the other
hand, Human Development Dynamics demonstrate that Turkey is moving away from major European countries in
terms of values, becoming less secular and more traditional. Our statistical models display that value convergence is
a significant factor in integration, indicating that the likelihood of Turkey’s European integration is slim.

Keywords

Power Transitions, Human Development, Regional Hierarchy, Values, Integration

References

• Abdollahian, Mark A., et al. “Dynamics of Cultural Change: The Human Development Perspective”, International Studies Quarterly, Vol.56, No.4, 1 December 2012, p.827–842.
• Acemoglu, Daron and James A. Robinson. Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty, 1st ed, New York, Crown Publishers, 2012.
• Barnett, Thomas P. M. The Pentagon’s New Map: War and Peace in the Twenty-First Century, New York, GPPutnam’s Sons, 2004.
• Chua, Amy. World on Fire: How Exporting Free Market Democracy Breeds Ethnic Hatred and Global Instability, New York, Doubleday, 2003.
• Efird, Brian and Gaspare M. Genna. “Structural Conditions and the Propensity for Regional Integration”, European Union Politics, Vol.3, No. 3, 2002, P.267–295.
• Efird, Brian, Jacek Kugler, and Gaspare M. Genna. “From War to Integration: Generalizing the Dynamic of Power Transitions”, International Interactions, 2003.
• Esmer, Yilmaz R. “Globalization, ‘McDonaldization’ and Values: Quo Vadis”, Yilmaz Esmer and Thorleif Pettersson (eds.), Measuring and Mapping Cultures: 25 Years of Comparative Value Surveys, International Studies in Sociology and Social Anthropology, Vol.104, Leiden; Boston, Brill, 2007.
• Eurobarometer. “Trust - European Union.” European Commission: Public Opinion, http://ec.europa.eu/ COMMFrontOffice/PublicOpinion/index.cfm/Chart/getChart/themeKy/18/groupKy/97, (Accessed on 16 April 2016).
• Genna, Gaspare and Taeko Hiroi. “Power Preponderance and Domestic Politics: Explaining Regional Economic Integration in Latin America and the Caribbean: 1960–1997”, International Interactions, Vol.30, No.1, 2004, p.143–165.
• Gurr, Ted Robert. Why Men Rebel, Princeton, NJ, Princeton University Press, 1971.
• “Guttman Scaling”, http://www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/scalgutt.php. Huntington, Samuel P. “The Change to Change: Modernization, Development, and Politics”, Comparative Politics, Vol.3, No.3, 1971, p.283–322.
• Huntington, Samuel P. The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, New York, Simon & Schuster, 1996.
• Inglehart, Ronald. “Mapping Global Values”, Yilmaz Esmer and Thorleif Pettersson (eds.), Measuring and Mapping Cultures: 25 Years of Comparative Value Surveys, International Studies in Sociology and Social Anthropology, Vol.104, Leiden; Boston, Brill, 2007.
• Inglehart, Ronald and Wayne E. Baker. “Modernization, Cultural Change, and the Persistence of Traditional Values”, American Sociological Review, Vol.65, 2000, p.19-51.
• Inglehart, Ronald F. “Changing Values among Western Publics from 1970 to 2006”, West European Politics, Vol.31, No.1–2, 1 January 2008, p.130-146.
• Inglehart, Ronald and Christian Welzel. Modernization, Cultural Change, and Democracy: The Human Development Sequence, Cambridge, UK ; New York, Cambridge University Press, 2005.
• “International Futures”, http://www.ifs.du.edu/ifs/, (Accessed on 30 April 2016).
• International Monetary Fund. “Gross Domestic Product Based on Purchasing-Power-Parity (PPP) Share of World Total”, World Economic Outlook Database April 2016, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/01/weodata/index.aspx, (Accessed on 16 April 2016).
• International Monetary Fund. “Population.” World Economic Outlook Database April 2016, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/01/weodata/index.aspx, (Accessed on 16 April 2016).
• Kugler, Jacek, and Ronald L. Tammen. (eds.), The Performance of Nations, Lanham, Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc, 2012.
• Lemke, Douglas. Regions of War and Peace, Cambridge Studies in International Relations, Vol.80. Cambridge, UK ; New York, Cambridge University Press, 2002.
• Lemke, Douglas and William Reed. “Regime Types and Status Quo Evaluations: Power Transition Theory and the Democratic Peace”, International Interactions, Vol.22, No.2, October 1996, p.143-164.
• Levy, Marion J. Jr. “Social Patterns (Structures) and Problems of Modernization”, Wilbert Moore and Robert Cook (eds.), Readings on Social Change, Prentice-Hall Readings in Modern Sociology Series. Englewood Cliffs, NJ, Prentice-Hall, 1967.
• Merkel, Wolfgang. “Embedded and Defective Democracies”, Democratization, Vol.11, No.5, 1 December 2004, p. 33–58.
• Organski, Abramo F. K. World Politics, Borzoi Books in Political Science, New York, Knopf, 1958.
• Organski, Abramo F. K., and Jacek Kugler. The War Ledger, Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 1980.
• Sachs, Jeffrey. The End of Poverty: Economic Possibilities for Our Time, New York, Penguin Press, 2005.
• Tammen, Ronald L., et al. Power Transitions: Strategies for the 21st Century, 1st edition, New York, Seven Bridges Press, LLC / Chatham House, 2000.
• Welzel, Christian. Freedom Rising: Human Empowerment and the Quest for Emancipation, New York, Cambridge University Press, 2013.
• “Wave 2 1990-1994 Official Aggregate”, World Values Survey, 29 April 2014, http://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/WVSDocumentationWV2.jsp.
• “Wave 3 1995-1998 Official Aggregate”, World Values Survey, 29 April 2014, http://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/WVSDocumentationWV3.jsp.
• “Wave 4 1999-2004 Official Aggregate”, World Values Survey, 29 April 2014, http://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/WVSDocumentationWV4.jsp.
• “Wave 5 2005-2008 Official Aggregate”, World Values Survey, 29 April 2014, http://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/WVSDocumentationWV5.jsp.
• “Wave 6 2010-2014 Official Aggregate”, World Values Survey, 29 April 2014, http://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/WVSDocumentationWV6.jsp.
• Yeşilada, Birol, Brian Efird, and Peter Noordijk. “Competition among Giants: A Look at How Future Enlargement of the European Union Could Affect Global Power Transition.” International Studies Review, Vol.8, No.4, December 2006, p.607–622