Yıl 2016, Cilt 13 , Sayı 52, Sayfalar 23 - 46 2016-12-01

Regional Power Transition and the Future of Turkey
Bölgesel Güç Aktarımı ve Türkiye’nin Geleceği

Birol Ali YEŞİLADA [1] , Osman Göktuğ TANRIKULU [2]


This study analyzes the regional power transitions for Turkey. The authors utilize both the Power Transitions Theory and the Human Development Theory to foresee Turkey’s future regional relations. The findings indicate that Turkey’s relations with the EU, Russia and Iran will be quite challenging. According to the forecasting, the probability of conflict between Turkey-Russia and Turkey-Iran will increase. Compared to Iran, Turkey’s propensity of conflict with Russia will be higher. Only in a scenario of joining the EU, Turkey’s probability of conflict with Russia and Iran decreases. EU membership stabilizes Turkey’s most challenging regional relationships. On the other hand, Human Development Dynamics demonstrate that Turkey is moving away from major European countries in terms of values, becoming less secular and more traditional. Our statistical models display that value convergence is a significant factor in integration, indicating that the likelihood of Turkey’s European integration is slim.
Bu çalışma Türkiye için bölgesel güç aktarımlarını incelemektedir. Yazarlar Türkiye’nin gelecekteki bölgesel ilişkilerini öngörebilmek için hem Güç Aktarımı hem de İnsani Kalkınma teorilerinden faydalanmışlardır. Sonuçlar Türkiye’nin AB, Rusya ve İran ile ilişkilerinde zorluklar yaşayacağını göstermektedir. Tahminler gelecekteki Türkiye-Rusya ve Türkiye-İran ilişkilerinde çatışma olasılığının yüksek olduğunu göstermektedir. İran’a kıyasla Rusya ile ilişkilerde çatışma riski daha yüksek gözükmektedir. Sadece AB’ye katılma senaryosu Türkiye’nin Rusya ve İran ile çatışma riskini azaltmaktadır. AB üyeliği Türkiye’nin zorlu bölgesel ilişkilerine istikrar getirebilmektedir. Diğer taraftan, İnsani Kalkınma Dinamikleri Türkiye’nin değerler bakımından Avrupa’nın önde gelen ülkelerinden giderek uzaklaşmakta olduğunu göstermektedir. Sekülerlik zayıflamakta, geleneksel değerler güçlenmektedir. İstatistiksel modeller, değerlerdeki yakınlaşmanın entegrasyondaki önemli faktörlerden biri olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu durum Türkiye’nin AB ile entegrasyon ihtimalinin çok zayıf olduğuna işaret etmektedir.
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Birincil Dil en
Konular Sosyal
Diğer ID JA79PG96MM
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Yazar: Birol Ali YEŞİLADA
Kurum: Middle East Studies Center, Portland State University

Yazar: Osman Göktuğ TANRIKULU
Kurum: Hatfield School of Government, Portland State University

Tarihler

Yayımlanma Tarihi : 1 Aralık 2016

Bibtex @araştırma makalesi { uidergisi463082, journal = {Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi}, issn = {1304-7310}, eissn = {1304-7175}, address = {Kadir Has Üniversitesi, Cibali Kampüsü, Beyaz Ev, Oda No: 13, 34083}, publisher = {Uluslararası İlişkiler Konseyi Derneği İktisadi İşletmesi}, year = {2016}, volume = {13}, pages = {23 - 46}, doi = {10.33458/uidergisi.463082}, title = {Regional Power Transition and the Future of Turkey}, key = {cite}, author = {Yeşilada, Birol Ali and Tanrıkulu, Osman Göktuğ} }
APA Yeşilada, B , Tanrıkulu, O . (2016). Regional Power Transition and the Future of Turkey . Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi , Özel Sayı: Türk Dış Politikası , 23-46 . DOI: 10.33458/uidergisi.463082
MLA Yeşilada, B , Tanrıkulu, O . "Regional Power Transition and the Future of Turkey" . Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi 13 (2016 ): 23-46 <https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/uidergisi/issue/39310/463082>
Chicago Yeşilada, B , Tanrıkulu, O . "Regional Power Transition and the Future of Turkey". Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi 13 (2016 ): 23-46
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Regional Power Transition and the Future of Turkey AU - Birol Ali Yeşilada , Osman Göktuğ Tanrıkulu Y1 - 2016 PY - 2016 N1 - doi: 10.33458/uidergisi.463082 DO - 10.33458/uidergisi.463082 T2 - Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 23 EP - 46 VL - 13 IS - 52 SN - 1304-7310-1304-7175 M3 - doi: 10.33458/uidergisi.463082 UR - https://doi.org/10.33458/uidergisi.463082 Y2 - 2021 ER -
EndNote %0 Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi Regional Power Transition and the Future of Turkey %A Birol Ali Yeşilada , Osman Göktuğ Tanrıkulu %T Regional Power Transition and the Future of Turkey %D 2016 %J Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi %P 1304-7310-1304-7175 %V 13 %N 52 %R doi: 10.33458/uidergisi.463082 %U 10.33458/uidergisi.463082
ISNAD Yeşilada, Birol Ali , Tanrıkulu, Osman Göktuğ . "Regional Power Transition and the Future of Turkey". Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi 13 / 52 (Aralık 2016): 23-46 . https://doi.org/10.33458/uidergisi.463082
AMA Yeşilada B , Tanrıkulu O . Regional Power Transition and the Future of Turkey. Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi. 2016; 13(52): 23-46.
Vancouver Yeşilada B , Tanrıkulu O . Regional Power Transition and the Future of Turkey. Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi. 2016; 13(52): 23-46.
IEEE B. Yeşilada ve O. Tanrıkulu , "Regional Power Transition and the Future of Turkey", Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi, c. 13, sayı. 52, ss. 23-46, Ara. 2016, doi:10.33458/uidergisi.463082