Research Article
BibTex RIS Cite

ORTA GELİR TUZAĞI’NIN TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ ÜZERİNE ETKİLERİ AMPİRİK BİR DEĞERLENDİRME (1980-2019)

Year 2021, Volume: 4 Issue: 1, 44 - 56, 19.06.2021

Dilşat Demirel

Abstract

Orta gelir tuzağı, düşük gelir düzeyinden hızlıca orta gelir düzeyine çıkan fakat bu düzeyde uzun yıllar boyunca kalarak, yüksek gelir grubuna çıkamayan ülkeleri belirtmek amacıyla kullanılan iktisadi bir terimdir. Dünya Bankasının 2007 yılında “Doğu Asya Rönesans’ı Ekonomik Gelişme İçin Fikirler” adlı raporunda bu kavram ortaya çıkmıştır. Türkiye’nin 1980-2019 dönemi için yıllık veriler kullanılarak orta gelir tuzağını etki eden değişkenlerin, orta gelir tuzağının kişi başına düşen gayri safi yurtiçi hasılanın yıllık büyüme oranı, enflasyon oranı, dışa açıklık oranı, yatırım ve tasarrufun yıllık değişim değerleri kullanılmıştır. Yapılan zaman serisi analizinde değişkenler arasındaki ilişki sırasıyla ADF (Augmented Dickey-Fuller) birim kök testi, Johansen eştümleşme ve Granger nedensellik yöntemleriyle araştırılmıştır. Yapılan çalışmada yatırımlardan orta gelir tuzağına doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişki tespit edilmiştir.

Keywords

orta gelir tuzağı zaman serisi analizi kişi başı düşen gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla

Thanks

Danışmanım Doçent Merter AKINCI' ya desteği için teşekkür ederim.

References

  • Kharas, H., & Kohli, H. (2011). What is the Middle Income Trap, Why Do Countries Fall into it, and How Can it Be Avoided? Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 3(3),, 280-289.
  • the world bank. (2021, 04 20). 04 20, 2021 tarihinde world bank: https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups adresinden alındı
  • Agenor, P. R., & Canuto, O. (2012). Middle-Income Growth Traps. the world bank, Policy Research Working .
  • Aiyar, S., Duval, R., Puy, D., Wu, Y., & Zhang, L. (2013). Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap. IMF working paper.
  • Alçın, S., & Güler, B. (2015). orta gelir tuzağı: Türkiye üzerine bir inceleme. Marmara Üniversitesi İ.İ.B dergisi, XXXVII(I), 28.
  • Anksiklopedi, Ö. (2020, 4 11). Orta gelir tuzağı. vikipedi: https://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orta_gelir_tuza%C4%9F%C4%B1 adresinden alınmıştır
  • Bozkurt, E. (2014). ORTA GELİR TUZAĞI: TÜRKİYE VE SEÇİLMİŞ GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELER ÜZERİNE BİR İNCELEME, 23.
  • Bozkurt, E., Çakmak , E., Özdemir, D., & Yatakir, S. (2014). ’Orta Gelir Tuzağı ve Türkiye Örneği. Maliye Dergisi,(167).
  • Carnovale, M. (2012). Developing Countries and the Middle-Income Trap:Predetermined to Fall? New York: Leonard N. Stern School of Business.
  • Charemza, W., & Deadman, D. (1993). New Directions in Econometric Practice.
  • Çavuş, Z. (2014). ORTA GELİR TUZAĞI: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ. Yüksek Lisans Tezi. malatya.
  • Eğilmez, M. (2012, 12 16). kendime yazılar. 04 30, 2021 tarihinde Orta Gelir Tuzağı ve Türkiye: https://www.mahfiegilmez.com/2012/12/orta-gelir-tuzag-ve-turkiye.html adresinden alındı
  • Ekonometri . (2018, 02 11). Ekolar.com: http://www.ekolar.com/granger-nedensellik-testi/ adresinden alınmıştır
  • Enders, W. (1995). Applied Econometric Time Series.
  • Erinç, Y., Taşçı, K., Özsan, M. E., & Voyvoda, E. (2012). orta gelir tuzağından çıkış hangi türkiye. istanbul.
  • Flaen, A., Ghani, E., & Saurabh, M. (2013, 6). How to Avoid Middle-Income Traps? Evidence from Malaysia. economic premise(120), 6.
  • Gürsel, S., & Soybilgen, B. (2013). Türkiye Orta Gelir Tuzağının Eşiğinde. Betam Araştırma Notu 13(154).
  • Jesus, F., Abdon, A., & Kumar, U. (2012). Tracking the Middle-income Trap: What Is It, Who Is in It, and Why? Levy Economics Institute, Working Paper No. 715.
  • Karagöz, F. (2010). yoksulluk tuzağı ve dış yardım: eleştirel bir yaklaşım. Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 1-2.
  • Karahan, H. (2012). KALKINMA YOLUNDA YENİ EŞİK: ORTA GELİR TUZAĞI. istanbul: MÜSİAD Araştırma Raporları.
  • Kharas, H., & Kohli, H. (2011). What Is the Middle Income Trap,. Global Journal of Emerging, 281.
  • Öz, S. (2012, ağustos). ekonomik araştırma formu politika notu orta gelir tuzağı. eaf: https://eaf.ku.edu.tr/sites/eaf.ku.edu.tr/files/eaf_pn1206.pdf adresinden alınmıştır
  • Robertson , P., & Ye, L. (2013). On the Existence of a Middle Income Trap. 05 31, 2021 tarihinde No 13-12,Economics Discussion / Working Papers : https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/uwawpaper/13-12.htm adresinden alındı
  • Tüzemen, Ö. B. (2015). YAKINSAMA HİPOTEZİ: BALKAN ÜLKELERİ ÖRNEĞİ. Balkan Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 4(7), 1-8.
  • World Bank. (tarih yok). 04 30, 2021 tarihinde world bank gdp per capita turkey (usd): https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?end=2001&locations=TR&start=1995 adresinden alındı Yaşar, E., & Gezer, M. A. (2014). Türkiye’nin Orta Gelir Tuzağına Yakalanma Riski ve. maliye dergisi(167), 127. 05 06, 2021 tarihinde https://acikerisim.aku.edu.tr/xmlui/bitstream/handle/11630/7260/10300384.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y adresinden alındı
  • Yeldan, p., Taşçı, k., Voyvoda, d., & Özsan, m. e. (2012). orta gelir tuzağından çıkış hangi türkiye . istanbul.

Year 2021, Volume: 4 Issue: 1, 44 - 56, 19.06.2021

Dilşat Demirel

Abstract

References

  • Kharas, H., & Kohli, H. (2011). What is the Middle Income Trap, Why Do Countries Fall into it, and How Can it Be Avoided? Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 3(3),, 280-289.
  • the world bank. (2021, 04 20). 04 20, 2021 tarihinde world bank: https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups adresinden alındı
  • Agenor, P. R., & Canuto, O. (2012). Middle-Income Growth Traps. the world bank, Policy Research Working .
  • Aiyar, S., Duval, R., Puy, D., Wu, Y., & Zhang, L. (2013). Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap. IMF working paper.
  • Alçın, S., & Güler, B. (2015). orta gelir tuzağı: Türkiye üzerine bir inceleme. Marmara Üniversitesi İ.İ.B dergisi, XXXVII(I), 28.
  • Anksiklopedi, Ö. (2020, 4 11). Orta gelir tuzağı. vikipedi: https://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orta_gelir_tuza%C4%9F%C4%B1 adresinden alınmıştır
  • Bozkurt, E. (2014). ORTA GELİR TUZAĞI: TÜRKİYE VE SEÇİLMİŞ GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELER ÜZERİNE BİR İNCELEME, 23.
  • Bozkurt, E., Çakmak , E., Özdemir, D., & Yatakir, S. (2014). ’Orta Gelir Tuzağı ve Türkiye Örneği. Maliye Dergisi,(167).
  • Carnovale, M. (2012). Developing Countries and the Middle-Income Trap:Predetermined to Fall? New York: Leonard N. Stern School of Business.
  • Charemza, W., & Deadman, D. (1993). New Directions in Econometric Practice.
  • Çavuş, Z. (2014). ORTA GELİR TUZAĞI: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ. Yüksek Lisans Tezi. malatya.
  • Eğilmez, M. (2012, 12 16). kendime yazılar. 04 30, 2021 tarihinde Orta Gelir Tuzağı ve Türkiye: https://www.mahfiegilmez.com/2012/12/orta-gelir-tuzag-ve-turkiye.html adresinden alındı
  • Ekonometri . (2018, 02 11). Ekolar.com: http://www.ekolar.com/granger-nedensellik-testi/ adresinden alınmıştır
  • Enders, W. (1995). Applied Econometric Time Series.
  • Erinç, Y., Taşçı, K., Özsan, M. E., & Voyvoda, E. (2012). orta gelir tuzağından çıkış hangi türkiye. istanbul.
  • Flaen, A., Ghani, E., & Saurabh, M. (2013, 6). How to Avoid Middle-Income Traps? Evidence from Malaysia. economic premise(120), 6.
  • Gürsel, S., & Soybilgen, B. (2013). Türkiye Orta Gelir Tuzağının Eşiğinde. Betam Araştırma Notu 13(154).
  • Jesus, F., Abdon, A., & Kumar, U. (2012). Tracking the Middle-income Trap: What Is It, Who Is in It, and Why? Levy Economics Institute, Working Paper No. 715.
  • Karagöz, F. (2010). yoksulluk tuzağı ve dış yardım: eleştirel bir yaklaşım. Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 1-2.
  • Karahan, H. (2012). KALKINMA YOLUNDA YENİ EŞİK: ORTA GELİR TUZAĞI. istanbul: MÜSİAD Araştırma Raporları.
  • Kharas, H., & Kohli, H. (2011). What Is the Middle Income Trap,. Global Journal of Emerging, 281.
  • Öz, S. (2012, ağustos). ekonomik araştırma formu politika notu orta gelir tuzağı. eaf: https://eaf.ku.edu.tr/sites/eaf.ku.edu.tr/files/eaf_pn1206.pdf adresinden alınmıştır
  • Robertson , P., & Ye, L. (2013). On the Existence of a Middle Income Trap. 05 31, 2021 tarihinde No 13-12,Economics Discussion / Working Papers : https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/uwawpaper/13-12.htm adresinden alındı
  • Tüzemen, Ö. B. (2015). YAKINSAMA HİPOTEZİ: BALKAN ÜLKELERİ ÖRNEĞİ. Balkan Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 4(7), 1-8.
  • World Bank. (tarih yok). 04 30, 2021 tarihinde world bank gdp per capita turkey (usd): https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?end=2001&locations=TR&start=1995 adresinden alındı Yaşar, E., & Gezer, M. A. (2014). Türkiye’nin Orta Gelir Tuzağına Yakalanma Riski ve. maliye dergisi(167), 127. 05 06, 2021 tarihinde https://acikerisim.aku.edu.tr/xmlui/bitstream/handle/11630/7260/10300384.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y adresinden alındı
  • Yeldan, p., Taşçı, k., Voyvoda, d., & Özsan, m. e. (2012). orta gelir tuzağından çıkış hangi türkiye . istanbul.
There are 26 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Cilt: 4 Sayı:1
Authors

Dilşat Demirel 0000-0002-2706-0164

Publication Date June 19, 2021
Submission Date June 14, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021 Volume: 4 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Demirel, D. (2021). ORTA GELİR TUZAĞI’NIN TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ ÜZERİNE ETKİLERİ AMPİRİK BİR DEĞERLENDİRME (1980-2019). Ünye İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 4(1), 44-56.

Publication Principles
1. Manuscripts submitted to The Journal of Ünye Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences must not have been published anywhere before and should not have been submitted for publication.
2. Articles written in either Turkish or English languages are published in the journal. The scientific and linguistic responsibility of the studies published in the journal belongs to the author(s).
3. In our journal, not only studies coming from academicians but also studies coming from researchers will be evaluated.
4. Studies that had been presented at conferences before and have not been published in full text, only had been published abstracts, can be accepted into the publication evaluation process provided that it is stated in the study.
5. Articles should be submitted to our journal electronically. To submissions of articles online through the website and follow the stage of the article in the referee evaluation process, it is necessary to be a member and log in to the Journal. The personal information entered on the journal's website will only be used for the stated purposes of the journal and will not be accessible for any other purpose or to any party.
6. The authors are informed about the refereeing process of the articles submitted to The Journal of Ünye Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences through the system and the evaluation reports can be easily followed by them via the system.
7. When applying, an article file without author information will be uploaded to the system.
8. The journal is based on the blind peer-review process. In the articles to be sent to the referee, the confidentiality of the information regarding the author's identity is ensured.
9. The articles submitted to the journal are sent to at least two referees after the preliminary examination in terms of form and content. Manuscripts that receive positive feedback from the referees are included in the publication process. If one positive and one negative report is received from the referees, the study is sent to a third referee by the Journal Editor.
10. It is aimed that the articles submitted to the journal will complete the referee process within two months. However, the authors of the articles for which corrections are requested must make the relevant corrections within one month and send them to the editorial board.
11. In line with the reports from the referees, it is decided to publish the article, to request revisions, additional information and abbreviations from the authors within the framework of the report, or not to publish it, and this decision is announced to the authors through the system. The authors are answerable for making all changes requested by the referees. Studies will not be published without constructing the desired changes.
12. The articles whose evaluation process is completed are queued by the journal editorial office and published in the relevant issue of the journal.
13. Manuscripts that do not comply with the journal's subject, spelling or grammar rules are returned to the authors after the preliminary review without being sent to the referees. All kinds of changes in form and content may be requested from the authors of the manuscripts received for preliminary evaluation.
14. All publication rights of the articles accepted and published in the journal in written and electronic media belong to The Journal of Ünye Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences.
15. No royalties are paid to the authors for the works published in the journal and the author does not have any claim rights.
16. The opinions in the articles published in the journal are subject to the responsibility of the corresponding authors.
17. In line with the reports received from the referees, it is decided to publish the article, to request corrections, additional information and abbreviations from the authors within the framework of the report, or not to publish the article, and this decision is notified to the authors via the system. Authors are obliged to make all changes requested by the referees. The manuscripts are not published until the requested changes are made.
18. All publication rights of the articles accepted and published in the journal in written and electronic media belong to The Journal of Ünye Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences.
19. No royalties are paid to the authors for the works published in the journal and the author does not have any claim rights.
20. The opinions in the articles published in the journal are subject to the responsibility of the relevant authors.
21. Articles accepted for publication cannot be reproduced and published in any way without the written permission of The Journal of Ünye Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences. However, it can be quoted provided that the source is cited.
22. If a research study has been supported by any institution or produced from the thesis, this should be indicated as a footnote on the same page by placing (*) on the last word of the title of the work.