Öz
Orta gelir tuzağı, düşük gelir düzeyinden hızlıca orta gelir düzeyine çıkan fakat bu düzeyde uzun yıllar boyunca kalarak, yüksek gelir grubuna çıkamayan ülkeleri belirtmek amacıyla kullanılan iktisadi bir terimdir. Dünya Bankasının 2007 yılında “Doğu Asya Rönesans’ı Ekonomik Gelişme İçin Fikirler” adlı raporunda bu kavram ortaya çıkmıştır. Türkiye’nin 1980-2019 dönemi için yıllık veriler kullanılarak orta gelir tuzağını etki eden değişkenlerin, orta gelir tuzağının kişi başına düşen gayri safi yurtiçi hasılanın yıllık büyüme oranı, enflasyon oranı, dışa açıklık oranı, yatırım ve tasarrufun yıllık değişim değerleri kullanılmıştır. Yapılan zaman serisi analizinde değişkenler arasındaki ilişki sırasıyla ADF (Augmented Dickey-Fuller) birim kök testi, Johansen eştümleşme ve Granger nedensellik yöntemleriyle araştırılmıştır. Yapılan çalışmada yatırımlardan orta gelir tuzağına doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişki tespit edilmiştir.
Anahtar Kelimeler
orta gelir tuzağı zaman serisi analizi kişi başı düşen gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla
Teşekkür
Danışmanım Doçent Merter AKINCI' ya desteği için teşekkür ederim.
Kaynakça
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Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | Türkçe |
|---|---|
| Konular | Ekonomi |
| Bölüm | Cilt: 4 Sayı:1 |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 19 Haziran 2021 |
| Gönderilme Tarihi | 14 Haziran 2021 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2021 Cilt: 4 Sayı: 1 |
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