ANALYSIS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN FOOD PRODUCT SECTOR IN TURKEY

Year 2019, , 251 - 266, 01.01.2019

Ferhat Çıtak , Patricia Duffy

https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.471099

Abstract

This
paper analyzes the determinants of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the food
products sector in Turkey.  An
Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is applied to the monthly data over
the period of January 2009 to December 2016.
In the model, FDI inflows are modeled as a function of the degree
of openness, exchange rate, export price, and wage rate. The
empirical results confirm there is an evidence of a long-run equilibrium
relationship among these variables in Turkey. Findings indicate that the degree of
openness and export price have a positive sign and are statistically
significant, while the wage rate has a negative sign and is statistically
significant. The error correction term (ECT) of the estimated model is negative
(0,92) and statistically significant which
indicates that deviations of actual FDI from the previous period’s shock will be converged
to the long-run equilibrium. 

Keywords

FDI, ARDL, Bound Testing Approach, Macroeconomics

ANALYSIS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN FOOD PROUCT SECTOR IN TURKEY

Abstract

Bu
makalede, Türkiye’ye gıda sektöründe yapılan doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları, ARDL
metodu ile 2009-2016 yılları arası dönemde aylık veriler kullanılarak
analiz edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Çalışmada; bağımlı değişken olarak doğrudan yabancı
sermaye yatırımları ve bağımsız değişkenler olarak da ticaret açıklığı,
döviz kuru, ihracat fiyatı ve ücret oranı verilerinden yararlanılmıştır. Çalışmanın sonuçlarına göre, incelenen faktörlerden ticaret
açıklığı ve ihracat fiyatı gıda sektörüne yapılan yabancı sermaye yatırımlarını pozitif etkilerken, ücret oranı arttıkça
yabancı sermaye yatırımları azaltmaktadır. Hata düzeltme teriminin katsayısı,
istatistiki olarak anlamlı ve beklenildiği gibi negatiftir.  Bu değer, kısa
dönemde meydana gelecek şoklar nedeniyle uzun dönemde
meydana gelen dengeden sapmanın %92’sinin bir
dönem sonra yani bir ay sonra dengeye yakınsayarak
düzeleceğini belirtmektedir. Son olarak, CUSUM ve CUSUMQ
testlerinden elde edilen eğriler, %5 güven aralığı içerisinde
olduğundan dolayı ARDL modeli analizinden elde edilen
katsayılar istikrarlıdır.

Keywords

Doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları, Sınır testi yaklaşımı, ARDL, Makroekonomi

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