AN ANALYSIS OF THE EXPORT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY OVER THE PERIOD OF 1950-2009

Year 2010, Issue: 5, 0 - , 14.05.2015

Aytaç Gökmen Dilek Temiz

Abstract

real GDP) by using annual time series data for the Turkish economy over the period 1950-2006. The
study applies a number of econometric techniques: ADF unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, vector
error correction model (VECM), and Granger causality test.
The results of this dissertation show that all the variables are stationary in the first difference. Moreover,
the Johansen cointegration test confirms the existence of the long run relationship among the two
variables. The Granger test shows one way causality from economic growth to real net exports. The
causality results are consistent with the results reported by the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM).
There is a long run and also short run causality relationship between the real export and the economic
growth. The direction of this causality is from economic growth (real GDP) to real export.

Keywords

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