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AN ANALYSIS OF THE EXPORT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY OVER THE PERIOD OF 1950-2009

Year 2010, Issue: 5, 0 - , 14.05.2015

Abstract

real GDP) by using annual time series data for the Turkish economy over the period 1950-2006. The
study applies a number of econometric techniques: ADF unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, vector
error correction model (VECM), and Granger causality test.
The results of this dissertation show that all the variables are stationary in the first difference. Moreover,
the Johansen cointegration test confirms the existence of the long run relationship among the two
variables. The Granger test shows one way causality from economic growth to real net exports. The
causality results are consistent with the results reported by the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM).
There is a long run and also short run causality relationship between the real export and the economic
growth. The direction of this causality is from economic growth (real GDP) to real export.

References

  • ABDULAI, A and JAQUET, P. (2002), “ Exports and Economic Growth:
  • Cointegration and Caus ality Evidence for Cote d'Ivoi re”, African Development
  • Review, Vol. 14, No 1, pp. 1-17.
  • ABOU-SAIT, F. (2005), “Are Exports the Engine of Economic Growth? An
  • Application of Cointegration and Caus ality Analysis for Egypt, 1977-2003,
  • Economic Research Working Paper No 76.
  • AHMAD, J. and KWAN, A. C. C. (1991) “Causality between exports and
  • economic growth: Empirical evidence from Africa”, Economics Letters, 37, pp. 243-
  • -
  • ALICI, A. A. and UCAL, M. S. (2003), “Foreign Direct Investment Exports
  • and Output Growth of Turkey: Causality Analysis”, Paper to be presented at the
  • European Trade Study Group (ETSG) Fifth Annual Conference Universidad Carlos
  • III de Madrid.
  • ÁLVAREZ-UDE, F. and GALVEZ, M. G., I. (2008), “Empırıcal Evıdence
  • Of The Balance Of Payments Constraıned Growth In Cuba. The Effects Of
  • Comercıal Regımes Sınce 1960”, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6993.
  • Al-YOUSIF, Y. K. (1999), “On the role of exports in the economic growth of
  • Malaysia: A multivariate analysis”, International Economic Journal 13: 67 – 75.
  • AMADE. C; VASAVADA, U.; “Causality between productivity and exports
  • in agriculture: Evidence from Asia and Latin America”, Journal of Agricultural
  • Economics 46:174-186.
  • ATABEK, A, COSAR, E. and SAHINGOZ, S. (2005), “A New Composite
  • Leading Indicator for Turkish Economic Activity”, Emerging Markets Fianance and
  • Trade, Vol. 40, No.1, pp. 45 – 64.
  • BALASSA, B. (1978), “ Exports and economic growth: further evidence”,
  • Journal of Development Economics, 5, pp. 181-189.
  • BALASSA, B., (1985), “ Exports, Policy Choices, and Economic Growth in
  • developing Countries Aft er the 1973 oil Shock", Journal of Development
  • Economics, vol. 18, pp. 23-35.
  • BERUMET, H. and DĐNÇER, N. (2004), “Do Capital Flows Improve
  • Macroeconomic Performance in Emerging Markets?”, Emerging Markets Finance
  • and Trade, Vol. 40, No.4, pp.20 – 32.
  • CENERRY, H. B., (1979), Structural Change and Development Policy, New
  • York, Oxford University Press.
  • CĐFTÇĐOĞLU, S. and KARAASLAN, C. (2005), “Comparison of
  • Macroeconomic Performance of Turkey and East Asian Countries, and Econometric
  • Analysis of Economic Growth in Turkey”, Problems and Perspectives in
  • Management, Volume 2, pp. 17 – 24.
  • DICKEY, D. and FULLER, W. (1981), “ Likelihood Ratio Statistics for
  • Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica, Vol. 49, 1057-1072.
  • DUTT, S. D. and GHOSH, D. (1994), “An empirical investigation of the
  • export growth – economic growth relationship”, Applied Economics Letters, 1: 44-
  • -
  • ENDERS, W. (2004), Applied Econometric Time Series, Wiley, New York.
  • ENGLE, R.F. and GRANGER, C.W.J. (1987); “Cointegration and Error-
  • Correction: Repres entation, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, Vol. 55, 251-
  • -
  • FOSU, A. K. (1990), “Export Composition and the Impact of Export on
  • Economic Growth of Developing Economies", Economic Letters, vol. 34, pp. 67-71.
  • FOSU, A. K. (1996), “Primary exports and economic growth in developing
  • countries”, World Economy, 19: 465 – 475.
  • GRANGER, C.W.J. (1969), “ Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric
  • and Cross-Spectral Method,” Econometrica, Vol. 37, No. 3, 424-438.
  • _____ (1986), “Development in the Study of Cointegrated Economic
  • Variables,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 48, 213-228.
  • GRANGER, C.W.J. (1988), “Some Recent Developments in a Concept o f
  • Causality,” Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 39, 199-211.
  • HALICIOĞLU, F. (2007); "A Multivariate Causality Analysis of Export and
  • Growth for Turkey”, MPRA Paper 3565, University Library of Munich, Germany,
  • revised .
  • HENRIQUES, I. and SADORSKY, P. (1996), “Export-led growth or growthdriven
  • export?”, Canadian Journal of Economics, 3: 440-555.
  • ISMIHAN, M., OZCAN, K. and TANSEL, A. (2005), “The role of
  • macroeconomic instability in public and private capital accumulation and growth:
  • the case of Turkey 1963 – 1999”, Applied Economics, Vol. 37, pp. 239 – 251.
  • JOANSEN, S. and JUSELIUS, K. (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation
  • and Inference on Cointegration with Application to the Demand for Money,” Oxford
  • Bulletin of Economic and Statistics, Vol. 52, 169-210.
  • KARAGÖZ, M. and SEN, A. (2005), “ Exports and Economic Growth o f
  • Turkey: Co-integration and Error-Correction Analysis” Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler
  • Dergisi www.e-sosder.com ISSN:1304-0278 Yaz 2005 C.4 S. 13 (1-15)
  • KAVOUSSI, R. M. (1984), “ Export Expansion and Economic Growth:
  • Further Empirical Evidence", Journal of Development Economics, vol.14, pp. 241-
  • -
  • KAWAN, A. C. C and COTSOMITIS, J. (1990), “Economic growth and the
  • Expanding Export Sector: China 1952-1985, International Economic Review, vol. 5,
  • pp. 105-117.
  • KRUEGER, A. (1978), Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development:
  • Liberalization attempts and Consequences, National Bureau of Economic Research,
  • New York.
  • KRUGMAN, P.R. (1984), “ Import protection as export promotion, in: H.
  • Kierzkowski (ed) Monopolistic competition in international trade, Oxford: Oxford
  • University Press.
  • NAS, T. and PERRY, M. (2001), “Turkish Inflation and Real Output
  • Growth, 1963 – 2000”, Russian and East European Finance and Trade, Vol. 37, No.
  • , pp. 31 – 46.
  • OXLEY, L. (1993), “Cointegration, Causality and Export-led growth in
  • Portugal, 1865- 1985”, Economic Letters, vol. 43, pp. 163-166.
  • RAM, R. (1985), “Exports and economic growth: some additional evidence”,
  • Economic Development and Cultural Change, 33, pp. 415-425.
  • RAM, R. (1987), “Exports and Economic growth in Developing Countries:
  • Evidence from Time Series and Cross-Section Data”, Economic Development and
  • Cultural Change, vol.36, pp.51-72.
  • RUIZ-NAPOLES, P. (2001), “ Liberalization, Exports and Growth in Mexico
  • -94: A Structural Analysis”, International Review of Applied Economics, Vol.
  • : 163-180.
  • SALVATORE, D. and ATCER, T. (1991), “ Inward Oriented and Outward
  • Oriented Trade Strategies”, The Journal of Development Studies, vol. 27, pp. 7-25.
  • SAN, J. and SUN, F. (1998), “Export-led growth hypothesis for Australia:
  • An empirical reinvestigation”, Applied Economics Letters 5: 423-428.
  • TEKIN, A. (2006), “Turkey’s Aborted Attempt at Export – Led Growth
  • Strategy: Anatomy of the 1970 Economic Reform”, Middle Eastern Studies, Vol.
  • , No: 1, pp. 33 – 163.
  • THOMTON, J. (1997), “ Export and economic growth: Evidence from 19th
  • century Europe”, Economics Letters, 55: 235-240.
  • TOSUN, M. and ABIZADE, S (2005), “Economic growth and tax
  • components: an analysis of tax changes in OECD”, Applied Economics, Vol. 37, pp.
  • – 2263.
  • TYLER, W. G. (1981), “Growth and Export Expansion in Developing
  • Countries: Some Empirical Evidence", Journal of Development Economics, vol. 9,
  • pp. 121-130.
  • YAGHMAIAN, B. (1994), “An Empirical Investigation of Exports,
  • Development and Growth in Developing Countries: Challenging the Neoclassical
  • Theory of Export- Led Growth, World Development, vol. 22.
  • YILMAZ, B. (2002), “The Role of Trade Strategies for Economic
  • Development”, Russian and East European Finance and Trade, Vol.38, No.2, pp. 59
  • – 78.
  • Web Page of the Central Bank of Turkey; web page: www.tcmb.gov.tr (last
  • visiten on 30.11.2207)
  • Web Page of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (2008), A Synopsis of the
  • Turkish Foreign Policy; web page
  • http://www.mfa.gov.tr/MFA/ForeignPolicy/Synopsis/economy.htm, [last visited
  • on 30.11.2007].
  • Web Page of the Undersecret ariat of Treasury; web page:
  • http://www.treasury.gov.tr/stat/egosterge/I-Uretim/Uretim.xls, [last visited on
  • 11.2007].
  • Web Page of Under Secret ariat of Foreign Trade; web page:
  • www.dtm.gov.tr, [last visited on 30.11.2007].
  • Web Page of Turkish Statistical Institute; web page: www.tuik.gov.tr, The
  • Foreign Statistics Bulletin, No: 190, 30.11.2007, [last visited on 30.11.2007].

AN ANALYSIS OF THE EXPORT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY OVER THE PERIOD OF 1950-2009

Year 2010, Issue: 5, 0 - , 14.05.2015

Abstract

real GDP) by using annual time series data for the Turkish economy over the period 1950-2006. The
study applies a number of econometric techniques: ADF unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, vector
error correction model (VECM), and Granger causality test.
The results of this dissertation show that all the variables are stationary in the first difference. Moreover,
the Johansen cointegration test confirms the existence of the long run relationship among the two
variables. The Granger test shows one way causality from economic growth to real net exports. The
causality results are consistent with the results reported by the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM).
There is a long run and also short run causality relationship between the real export and the economic
growth. The direction of this causality is from economic growth (real GDP) to real export.

References

  • ABDULAI, A and JAQUET, P. (2002), “ Exports and Economic Growth:
  • Cointegration and Caus ality Evidence for Cote d'Ivoi re”, African Development
  • Review, Vol. 14, No 1, pp. 1-17.
  • ABOU-SAIT, F. (2005), “Are Exports the Engine of Economic Growth? An
  • Application of Cointegration and Caus ality Analysis for Egypt, 1977-2003,
  • Economic Research Working Paper No 76.
  • AHMAD, J. and KWAN, A. C. C. (1991) “Causality between exports and
  • economic growth: Empirical evidence from Africa”, Economics Letters, 37, pp. 243-
  • -
  • ALICI, A. A. and UCAL, M. S. (2003), “Foreign Direct Investment Exports
  • and Output Growth of Turkey: Causality Analysis”, Paper to be presented at the
  • European Trade Study Group (ETSG) Fifth Annual Conference Universidad Carlos
  • III de Madrid.
  • ÁLVAREZ-UDE, F. and GALVEZ, M. G., I. (2008), “Empırıcal Evıdence
  • Of The Balance Of Payments Constraıned Growth In Cuba. The Effects Of
  • Comercıal Regımes Sınce 1960”, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6993.
  • Al-YOUSIF, Y. K. (1999), “On the role of exports in the economic growth of
  • Malaysia: A multivariate analysis”, International Economic Journal 13: 67 – 75.
  • AMADE. C; VASAVADA, U.; “Causality between productivity and exports
  • in agriculture: Evidence from Asia and Latin America”, Journal of Agricultural
  • Economics 46:174-186.
  • ATABEK, A, COSAR, E. and SAHINGOZ, S. (2005), “A New Composite
  • Leading Indicator for Turkish Economic Activity”, Emerging Markets Fianance and
  • Trade, Vol. 40, No.1, pp. 45 – 64.
  • BALASSA, B. (1978), “ Exports and economic growth: further evidence”,
  • Journal of Development Economics, 5, pp. 181-189.
  • BALASSA, B., (1985), “ Exports, Policy Choices, and Economic Growth in
  • developing Countries Aft er the 1973 oil Shock", Journal of Development
  • Economics, vol. 18, pp. 23-35.
  • BERUMET, H. and DĐNÇER, N. (2004), “Do Capital Flows Improve
  • Macroeconomic Performance in Emerging Markets?”, Emerging Markets Finance
  • and Trade, Vol. 40, No.4, pp.20 – 32.
  • CENERRY, H. B., (1979), Structural Change and Development Policy, New
  • York, Oxford University Press.
  • CĐFTÇĐOĞLU, S. and KARAASLAN, C. (2005), “Comparison of
  • Macroeconomic Performance of Turkey and East Asian Countries, and Econometric
  • Analysis of Economic Growth in Turkey”, Problems and Perspectives in
  • Management, Volume 2, pp. 17 – 24.
  • DICKEY, D. and FULLER, W. (1981), “ Likelihood Ratio Statistics for
  • Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica, Vol. 49, 1057-1072.
  • DUTT, S. D. and GHOSH, D. (1994), “An empirical investigation of the
  • export growth – economic growth relationship”, Applied Economics Letters, 1: 44-
  • -
  • ENDERS, W. (2004), Applied Econometric Time Series, Wiley, New York.
  • ENGLE, R.F. and GRANGER, C.W.J. (1987); “Cointegration and Error-
  • Correction: Repres entation, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, Vol. 55, 251-
  • -
  • FOSU, A. K. (1990), “Export Composition and the Impact of Export on
  • Economic Growth of Developing Economies", Economic Letters, vol. 34, pp. 67-71.
  • FOSU, A. K. (1996), “Primary exports and economic growth in developing
  • countries”, World Economy, 19: 465 – 475.
  • GRANGER, C.W.J. (1969), “ Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric
  • and Cross-Spectral Method,” Econometrica, Vol. 37, No. 3, 424-438.
  • _____ (1986), “Development in the Study of Cointegrated Economic
  • Variables,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 48, 213-228.
  • GRANGER, C.W.J. (1988), “Some Recent Developments in a Concept o f
  • Causality,” Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 39, 199-211.
  • HALICIOĞLU, F. (2007); "A Multivariate Causality Analysis of Export and
  • Growth for Turkey”, MPRA Paper 3565, University Library of Munich, Germany,
  • revised .
  • HENRIQUES, I. and SADORSKY, P. (1996), “Export-led growth or growthdriven
  • export?”, Canadian Journal of Economics, 3: 440-555.
  • ISMIHAN, M., OZCAN, K. and TANSEL, A. (2005), “The role of
  • macroeconomic instability in public and private capital accumulation and growth:
  • the case of Turkey 1963 – 1999”, Applied Economics, Vol. 37, pp. 239 – 251.
  • JOANSEN, S. and JUSELIUS, K. (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation
  • and Inference on Cointegration with Application to the Demand for Money,” Oxford
  • Bulletin of Economic and Statistics, Vol. 52, 169-210.
  • KARAGÖZ, M. and SEN, A. (2005), “ Exports and Economic Growth o f
  • Turkey: Co-integration and Error-Correction Analysis” Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler
  • Dergisi www.e-sosder.com ISSN:1304-0278 Yaz 2005 C.4 S. 13 (1-15)
  • KAVOUSSI, R. M. (1984), “ Export Expansion and Economic Growth:
  • Further Empirical Evidence", Journal of Development Economics, vol.14, pp. 241-
  • -
  • KAWAN, A. C. C and COTSOMITIS, J. (1990), “Economic growth and the
  • Expanding Export Sector: China 1952-1985, International Economic Review, vol. 5,
  • pp. 105-117.
  • KRUEGER, A. (1978), Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development:
  • Liberalization attempts and Consequences, National Bureau of Economic Research,
  • New York.
  • KRUGMAN, P.R. (1984), “ Import protection as export promotion, in: H.
  • Kierzkowski (ed) Monopolistic competition in international trade, Oxford: Oxford
  • University Press.
  • NAS, T. and PERRY, M. (2001), “Turkish Inflation and Real Output
  • Growth, 1963 – 2000”, Russian and East European Finance and Trade, Vol. 37, No.
  • , pp. 31 – 46.
  • OXLEY, L. (1993), “Cointegration, Causality and Export-led growth in
  • Portugal, 1865- 1985”, Economic Letters, vol. 43, pp. 163-166.
  • RAM, R. (1985), “Exports and economic growth: some additional evidence”,
  • Economic Development and Cultural Change, 33, pp. 415-425.
  • RAM, R. (1987), “Exports and Economic growth in Developing Countries:
  • Evidence from Time Series and Cross-Section Data”, Economic Development and
  • Cultural Change, vol.36, pp.51-72.
  • RUIZ-NAPOLES, P. (2001), “ Liberalization, Exports and Growth in Mexico
  • -94: A Structural Analysis”, International Review of Applied Economics, Vol.
  • : 163-180.
  • SALVATORE, D. and ATCER, T. (1991), “ Inward Oriented and Outward
  • Oriented Trade Strategies”, The Journal of Development Studies, vol. 27, pp. 7-25.
  • SAN, J. and SUN, F. (1998), “Export-led growth hypothesis for Australia:
  • An empirical reinvestigation”, Applied Economics Letters 5: 423-428.
  • TEKIN, A. (2006), “Turkey’s Aborted Attempt at Export – Led Growth
  • Strategy: Anatomy of the 1970 Economic Reform”, Middle Eastern Studies, Vol.
  • , No: 1, pp. 33 – 163.
  • THOMTON, J. (1997), “ Export and economic growth: Evidence from 19th
  • century Europe”, Economics Letters, 55: 235-240.
  • TOSUN, M. and ABIZADE, S (2005), “Economic growth and tax
  • components: an analysis of tax changes in OECD”, Applied Economics, Vol. 37, pp.
  • – 2263.
  • TYLER, W. G. (1981), “Growth and Export Expansion in Developing
  • Countries: Some Empirical Evidence", Journal of Development Economics, vol. 9,
  • pp. 121-130.
  • YAGHMAIAN, B. (1994), “An Empirical Investigation of Exports,
  • Development and Growth in Developing Countries: Challenging the Neoclassical
  • Theory of Export- Led Growth, World Development, vol. 22.
  • YILMAZ, B. (2002), “The Role of Trade Strategies for Economic
  • Development”, Russian and East European Finance and Trade, Vol.38, No.2, pp. 59
  • – 78.
  • Web Page of the Central Bank of Turkey; web page: www.tcmb.gov.tr (last
  • visiten on 30.11.2207)
  • Web Page of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (2008), A Synopsis of the
  • Turkish Foreign Policy; web page
  • http://www.mfa.gov.tr/MFA/ForeignPolicy/Synopsis/economy.htm, [last visited
  • on 30.11.2007].
  • Web Page of the Undersecret ariat of Treasury; web page:
  • http://www.treasury.gov.tr/stat/egosterge/I-Uretim/Uretim.xls, [last visited on
  • 11.2007].
  • Web Page of Under Secret ariat of Foreign Trade; web page:
  • www.dtm.gov.tr, [last visited on 30.11.2007].
  • Web Page of Turkish Statistical Institute; web page: www.tuik.gov.tr, The
  • Foreign Statistics Bulletin, No: 190, 30.11.2007, [last visited on 30.11.2007].
There are 130 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Aytaç Gökmen This is me

Dilek Temiz This is me

Publication Date May 14, 2015
Published in Issue Year 2010 Issue: 5

Cite

APA Gökmen, A., & Temiz, D. (2015). AN ANALYSIS OF THE EXPORT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY OVER THE PERIOD OF 1950-2009. Uluslararası İktisadi Ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi(5). https://doi.org/10.18092/ijeas.65518

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