TURİZM GELİRLERİNE YÖNELİK BİR YAKINSAMA ANALİZİ

Year 2015, Issue: 15, 0 - , 20.06.2015

Kurtuluş Bozkurt Ozan Bahar

https://doi.org/10.18092/ijeas.14404

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’nin uluslararası turizm sektöründe hem en yakın rakipleri olan hem de Türkiye’nin de içerisinde yer aldığı dünyanın en gelişmiş dokuz turizm ekonomisi ile Türkiye arasında herhangi bir yakınsama sürecinin olup olmadığını araştırmak ve turizm ekonomisi anlamında turizm-yakınsama ilişkisini ortaya koymaktır. Bu bağlamda; 1995-2009 dönemini kapsayan bir panel veri seti oluşturulmuş ve söz konusu ülkelerin turist sayısı başına düşen turizm gelirlerinin yakınsaması Panel Birim Kök analizi kapsamında sınanmaya çalışılmıştır. Yapılan analizler sonucunda Türkiye’nin diğer ülkelerle olan yakınsama sürecinin reddedilemediği, buna karşın bireysel birim kök süreci dikkate alındığında, test tekniklerine göre ufak farklılıklar gösterse de genel anlamda Türkiye’nin ABD, Fransa, İspanya ve Çin ile yakınsama süreci içerisinde olduğunun reddedilemediği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Yakınsama Hipotezi, Turizm Gelirleri, Panel Veri Analizi

JEL Sınıflandırması: L83, E00, C23

 

CONVERGENCE ANALYSIS FOR THE TOURISM RECEIPT

 

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine whether there is a convergence relationship process or not between Turkey, one of the ten most developed tourism economies in the world, and other nine tourism economies which are also Turkey’s major competitors in international tourism sector and to reveal the relationship between tourism and convergence in terms of tourism economy. In this respect, this study forms a panel data set for the term 1995-2009 and tests the convergence of subject countries international tourism receipts per international visitor arrivals within the framework of Panel Unit Root Analysis. Results of the analysis show that it is not possible to deny the convergence process between Turkey and the subject countries concerning the common unit root process. Despite the minor differences occurred due to different test techniques, when the individual unit root process is considered, it is concluded that it is not possible to deny Turkey’s general convergence process with USA, France, Spain and China.

Keywords: Convergence Hypothesis, Tourism Receipts, Panel Data Analysis

JEL Classification: L83, E00, C23

 

Keywords

Yakınsama Hipotezi, Turizm Gelirleri, Panel Veri Analizi

References

• ABBOTT, A., VITA, G. D. & ALTINAY, L. (2011), “Revisiting the Convergence Hypothesis for Tourism Markets: Evidence from Turkey Using the Pairwise Approach”, Tourism Management, (Article in Press).
• BAHAR, O. & BOZKURT, K. (2010), “Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Turizm-Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi”, Anatolia: Turizm Araş-tırmaları Dergisi, 21 (2): 255-265.
• BAHAR, O. & KOZAK M. (2007), “Advancing Destination Competitiveness Research: Comparison Between Tourists and Service Providers”, Journal of Travel and Tourism Marketing, 22 (2): 61-71.
• BAHAR, O. & KOZAK M. (2008), Tourism Economics Concepts and Practices, New York: Nova Science Publishers, Inc.
• BALAGUER, J., & JORDA, M. C. (2002), “Tourism as a Long-run Economic Growth Factor: the Spanish Case”, Applied Economics, 34: 877-884.
• BALTAGI, B. H. & KAO, C. (2000), “Nonstationary Panels, Cointegration in Panels and Dynamic Panels: A Survey”, Advances in Econometrics, 15, 7-51.
• BARRO, R & SALA-I-MARTIN, X. (1990), “Economic Growth and Convergence Across United States”, www.nber.org/papers/w3419, Erişim Tarihi: 16.10.2013
• BARRO, R & SALA-I-MARTİN, X. (1995), Economic Growth, Eastern Economy Edition, Second Edition, Prentice Hall of India.
• BAUMOL, W. J. (1986), “Productivity Growth, Convergence and Welfare: What the LongRun Data Show?”, The American Economic Review, 76 (5): 1072-85.
• BENOS, N. & KARAGIANNIS, S. (2008), “Convergence and Economic Performance in Greece: Evıdence at Regıonal and Prefecture Level”, Review of Ur-ban & Regional Development Studies, 20 (1): 52-69.
• BRAGA, V. (2006), “Regional Growth an Local Convergence: Evidence for Portugal”, http://www.ersa.org/ersaconfs/ersa03/cdrom/papers/323.pdf, Erişim Tarihi: 16.10.2013
• CHO, V. (2003), “A Comparison of Three Different Approaches to Tourist Arrival Forecasting”, Tourism Management, 24 (3): 323–330.
• CHOI, I. (2001), “Unit Roots Tests for Panel Data”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 20, 229-272.
• CHRISTOPOULOS, D. K. & TSIONAS, E. G. (2004), “Convergence and Regional Productivity Differences: Evidence from Greek Prefectures”, The Annals of Regional Science, 38: 387-396.
• DOBSON, S. & RAMLOGAN, C. (2002), “Convergence and Divergence in Latin America, 1970-1998”, Applied Economics, 34 (4): 465-470.
• DURBARRY, R. (2004), “Tourism and Economic Growth: the Case of Mauritius”, Tourism Economics, 10(4): 389-401.
• GÖKOVALI, U. & BAHAR, O. (2006), “Contribution of Tourism to Economic Growth in Mediterrranean Countries: A Panel Data Approach”, Anatolia An International Journal of Tourism And Hospitality Research, 17 (2): 155-168.
• HADRI, K. (2000), “Testing for Stationarity in Heterogenous Panels”, Econometrics Journal, 3: 148-161.
• HAZARI, B. R., & Ng, A. (1993), “An Analysis of Tourists’ Consumption of Non-traded Goods and Services on the Welfare of the Domestic Consumers”, International Review of Economics and Finance, 2: 3-58.
• HAZARI, B. R., & SGRO, P. M. (1995), “Tourism and Growth in a Dynamic Model of Trade”, The Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 4 (2): 243-252.
• HOOI, L. H. & SMYTH, R. (2006), “Marketing, Malaysia Welcomes the World: Are Malaysia’s Tourism Markets Converging?”, Monash University Business and Economics, ABERU Discussion, Paper 26.
• IM, K. S., PESARAN, H. & SHIN, Y. (1997), “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogenous Panels”, http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/faculty/pesaran/lm.pdf, Erişim Tarihi: 16.10.2013
• Im, K. S., Pesaran, H. & Shin, Y. (2003), “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogenous Panels”, Journal of Econometrics, 115 (1), 53-74.
• ISSA, I. A. & ALTINAY, L. (2006), “Impacts of Political Instability on Tourism Planning and Development: the Case of Lebanon”, Tourism Economics, 12 (3): 361-381.
• KANGASHARJU, A. (1998), “Β convergence in Finland: Regional Differences in Speed of Convergence”, Applied Economics, 30 (5): 679-687.
• KIM, H. J., CHEN, M. H. & JANG S. (2006), “Tourism Expansion and Economic Development: The case of Taiwan”, Tourism Management, 27 (5): 925-933.
• KOZAK, M., BALOĞLU, Ş. & BAHAR O. (2010), “Measuring Destination Competitiveness: Multiple Destinations Vs Multiple Nationalities”, Journal of Hospitality Marketing & Management, 19 (1):56-71.
• LEAN, H. H & SMYTH, R. (2008), “Are Malaysia’s Tourism Markets Converging? Evidence From Univarete and Panel Unit Root Tests with Structural Breaks”, Tourism Economics, 14 (1): 97-112.
• LEE, C. G. (2009), “The Convergence Hypothesis For Tourism Markets: Evidence From Singapore”, Tourism Economics, 15 (4): 875–881.
• LEE, J. (2009), “Trade, FDI, and Productivity Convergence: A dynamic Pa-nel Data Approach in 25 Countries”, Japan and the World Economy, 21: 226–238.
• LEVIN, A. & LIN, C. (1992), “Unit Roots Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties”, University of California-San Diego Discussion Paper, No: 92-23.
• LEVIN, A. & LIN, C. (1993), “Unit Roots Tests in Panel Data: New Result”, University of California-San Diego Discussion Paper, No: 93-56.
• LORDE, T. & MOORE, W. (2008), “Co-movement in Tourist Arrivals in the Caribbean”, Tourism Economics, 14 (3), 631–643
• LUNDBERG, E. D. et al. (1995), Tourism Economics, Canada: John Wiley&Sons,Inc.
• MANKIW, N. G. (2007), Macroeconomics, Sixth Edition, New York: Worth Publishers.
• MCKINNON, T. (1964), “Foreign Exchange Constraint in Economic Development and Efficient Aid Allocation”, Economic Journal, 74: 388–409.
• MODESTE, N. C. (1995), “The Impact of Growth in the Tourism Sector on Economic Development: the Experience of Selected Caribbean Countries”, Economia Internazionale, 48: 375-385.
• NARAYAN, P. K. (2006), “Are Australia’s Tourism Markets Converging?”, Applied Economics, 38 (10): 1153–1162.
• NARAYAN, P. K. (2007), “Testing Convergence of Fiji’s Tourism Markets”, Pacific Economic Review, 12 (5): 651–663.
• NOWAK, J., SAHLI, M. & SGRO, P. M. (2004), “Tourism, Trade and Domestic Welfare”, FEEM Working Paper Series, No: 24.2004.
• PIZAM, A. (1999), “Life and Tourism in the Year 2050”, International Journal of Hospitality Management, 18 (4): 331–343.
• PROENÇA, S. & SOUKIAZİ, E. (2008), “Tourism as an Alternative Source of Regional Growth in Portugal: a Panal Data Analysis at NUTS II and III Levels”, Portuguese Economic Journal, 7 (1): 43-61.
• RASSEKH, F. (1998), “The Convergence Hypothesis: History, Theory, and Evidence”, Open Economies Review, 9: 85-105.
• RASSEKH, F., PANIK, M. J. & KOLLURI, B. R. (2001), “A test of the Convergence Hypothesis: the OECD Experience, 1950-1990”, International Review of Economics and Finance, 10: 147-157.
• SACHS, J. D., BAJPAI, N. & RAMIAH, A. (2002), “Understanding Regional Economic Growth in India”, Harvard CID Working Paper, No: 88.
• SALA-I-MARTIN, X. (1996), “The Classical Aproach to Convergence Analysis”, The Economic Journal, 106 (437): 1019–1036.
• SAMIRKAŞ, M. & BAHAR, O. (2011), “Turizm Sektörünün Bölgelerarası Gelişmişlik Farklılıklarını Gidermedeki Etkisi: Yakınsama Modeli”, Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar Dergisi, 48 (557): 85-98.
• SIRIOPOULOS, C. & ASTERIOU, D. (1998), “Testing for Convergence Across The Greek Regions”, Regional Studies, 32 (6): 537–546.
• SOLOW, R. M. (1956), “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70 (1): 65-94.
• SOLOW, R. M. (1957), “Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function”,Review of Economics and Statistics, 3 (3): 312-320.
• SOUKIAZİ, E. & PROENÇA, S. (2008), “Tourism as an Economic Growth Factor: a Case Study for Southern European Countries”, Tourism Economics, 14 (4): 791–806.
• TSE, R. Y. C. (2001), “Estimating the Impact of Economics Factors on Tourism: Evidence from Hong Kong”, Tourism Economics, 7 (3): 277–297.
• UNGER, K. (2005), “Regional Economic Development and Mexican out-Migration”, http://www.nber.org/papers/W11432, Erişim Tarihi: 16.10.2013
• VANEGAS, M. & CROES, R. R. (2003), “Growth, Development and Tourism in a Small Economy: Evidence from Aruba”, The International Journal of Tourism Research, 5 (5): 315-330.
• WTO (2010), Tourism Highlights 2010 Edition, Spain.