S-CURVE DYNAMICS OF TRADE BETWEEN TURKEY AND HER TRADING PARTNERS

Year 2015, Issue: 15, 179 - 192, 20.06.2015

Reşat Akkay

https://doi.org/10.18092/ijeas.52534

Cited By: 1

Abstract

The S-curve is used to describe the dynamic relation between terms of trade and trade balance. As a result of previous works the S-curve relation was obtained for some developed and developing countries within the framework of their trade with the rest of the world. On the other hand for some countries this relationship is weak or there is no relationship. The possibility of “aggregation bias” problem of the previous works leads researchers to a make the same analysis at bilateral and industry level. In our work this relationship is investigated for Turkey at aggregate level with the rest of the world, with the developing and developed countries and at the bilateral level with the 20 important trade partners for the 2003Q1-2012Q4 period. The results of our analysis for Turkey show that there is a weak S-curve relation with the rest of the world and with the developing countries. On the other hand the relation is strong with the developed countries. At the bilateral level there is a strong S-curve relation in 14 out of 20 cases

Keywords

Terms of trade, trade balance, S-curve, J-curve

TÜRKİYE VE TİCARET ORTAKLARI ARASINDAKİ TİCARETİN S-EĞRİSİ DİNAMİĞİ

Abstract

S-eğrisi ilişkisi, dış ticaret haddi ve dış ticaret dengesi arasındaki dinamik süreci ifade etmekte kullanılmaktadır. Bazı gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerin tüm dünya ile ticareti çerçevesinde yapılan analizler
sonucunda bu ilişkinin varlığına rastlanırken; bazı ülkeler açısından bu ilişkinin zayıf, bazı ülkeler içinse
hiç olmadığı görülmektedir. Bu çalışmalarda toplulaştırma yanlılığı probleminin olma olasılığı, ülkelerin
ticaret ortaklarıyla tek tek karşılıklı olarak ve endüstri kolları düzeyinde değerlendirdiği analizlerin yapılmasına neden olmuştur. Çalışmada Türkiye açısından S-eğrisi ilişkisi 2003(1)-2012(4) dönemi için tüm
dünya, gelişmekte olan ülkeler, gelişmiş ülkeler ve Türkiye’nin dış ticaretindeki en önemli 20 ülke ile
karşılıklı olarak ele alınmıştır. Analiz sonucunda Türkiye açısından S-eğrisi ilişkisinin tüm dünya ve grup
olarak gelişmekte olan ülkeler ile zayıf; grup olarak gelişmekte olan ülkeler ile kuvvetli olduğu tespit
edilmiştir. Türkiye’nin dış ticaretinde önemli olan 20 ülke ile ikili düzeyde yapılan analizin sonucunda ise
S-eğrisi ilişkisinin 14 ülke için kuvvetli olduğu gözlemlenmiştir

Keywords

Ticaret hadleri, ticaret dengesi, S-eğrisi, J-eğrisi

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