THE RELATIVE SENSITIVITIES ANALYSIS BETWEEN THE ECONOMIC GROWTH RATE AND SELECTED MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES: TURKEY CASE

Year 2015, Issue: 15, 381 - 396, 20.06.2015

Dilek Sürekçi Yamaçlı

https://doi.org/10.18092/ijeas.26511

Cited By: 1

Abstract

The aim of this study is the investigation of the relations between the selected macroeconomic variables and the economic growth rate for the period of 1987-2010 in Turkey. Relative Sensitivities Analyasis (RSA) was used to accomplish this aim. This statistical method is used for examining the relationships between variables in the over time. According to the results of study, consumption budget balance has higher relative sensitivity on the economic growth rate than the other variables. On the other hand, changes in the stock of external debt and current account deficit have no effect on the economic growth rate, expect periods of 1991, 1994, 2001 and 2008-2009. In this context, for the stabilization of the economic growth rate, especially consumption expenditure and budget deficit should be considered

Keywords

Economic Growth, Macro Models, Relative Sensitivities Analysis

EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ORANI VE SEÇİLMİŞ MAKROEKONOMİK DEĞİŞKENLER ARASINDA BAĞIL DUYARLILIK ANALİZİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Abstract

Bu çalıĢmanın amacı bazı makroekonomik göstergeler ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki iliĢkileri,1987-
2010 dönemi Türkiye için incelemektir. Bu amaçla Bağıl Duyarlılık Analizi kullanılmıĢtır. Bu istatistiksel
yöntem değiĢkenler arasındaki iliĢkileri, zaman içindeki değiĢimleri dikkate alarak, kapsamlı biçimde
incelemektedir. ÇalıĢmanın sonuçlarına göre, tüketim harcamaları ve bütçe dengesinin ekonomik büyüme
üzerinde diğer değiĢkenlere göre bağıl duyarlılığı yüksektir. Öte yandan, dıĢ borç stoku ve cari açıktaki
değiĢimler ile ekonomik büyüme arasında, 1991, 1994, 2001 ve 2008-2008 dönemleri dıĢında, bağıl duyarlılık zayıftır. Bu kapsamda, ekonomik büyüme hızının istikrar kazanmasında özellikle tüketim harcamaları ve bütçe dengesine kontrol edilmelidir.

Keywords

Ekonomik Büyüme, Makro Modeller, Bağıl Duyarlılık Analizi

References

• ARNOLD, J., JAVORCIK, B.S., MATTOO, A. (2011), “Does Services Liberalization Benefit Manufacturing Firms? Evidence from the Czech Republic”, Journal of International Economics, 85(1), 136-146.
• BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, M., DOMAC, I. (1995), “Export growth and economic growth in Turkey: Evidence from cointegration analysis”, METU Studies in Development, 22, 67-77.
• ISENRING, E. A., BAUER, J. D., GASKILL, D., BANKS, M. (2009), “The Malnutrition Screening Tool is a useful tool for identifying malnutrition risk in residential aged care”, Journal of Human Nutrition and Dietetics, 22(6), 545–550.
• BORGONOVO, E. AND PECCATI, L. (2004), “Sensitivity Analysis in Investment Project Evaluation”, International Journal of Production Economics, 90 (1), 17-25.
• BORGONOVO, E. AND PECCATI, L. (2006), “Uncertainity and Global Sensitivity Analysis in the Evaluation of Investment Projects”, Int. J. of Production Economics, 104(1), 62-73.
• BUSSIERE, M., FRATZSCHER, M., MULLER, G. (2004), “Current Account Dynamics in OECD and EU Acceding Countries: An Intertemporal Approach”, European Central Bank Working Paper. No. 311, http://ssrn.com/
• abstract=515074, Access date: 15.05.2004.
• CALDERON, A., C., CHONG, A., LOAYZO, N. V. (2002), “Determinants of Current Account Deficits in Developing Countries”, The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2(1), 1-33.
• CHINN, M. AND PARASAD, E. S. (2000), “Medium Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration”, NBER Working Paper. No.7581, http://www.nber.org/papers/w7581, Access date: 01.03.2000.
• DAVIDSON R., MACKINNON, J.G. (1993), “Estimation and Inference in Econometrics”, London: Oxford University Press.
• DEBELLE, G. AND FARUQEE H. (1996), “What Determines the Current Account?”, IMF Working Paper, No.96/58.
• DEMİRBAŞ, S. (1999), “Cointegration Analysis-Causality Testing and Wagner's Law: The Case of Turkey 1950-1990”, University of Leicster Discussion Papers,99/2,http://www2.le.ac.uk/departments/economics/research/discussion-papers/discussion-papers-in-economics, Access date: 01.05.1999.
• DOLLAR, D. (1992), “Outward-Oriented Developing Economies Really Do More Grow more Rapidly: Evidence form 95 LDC’s, 1976-1985”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 40(3), 523-44.
• DOMINGUEZ, K. (2005), Economics Perspective in Singapore”, (http//www.personalumich.edu/kathrynd/SIngapore),
• ENDERS, WALTER (1995), Applied Econometric Time Series, John Wiley&Sons: New York.
• FRANKEL, J.A., ROMER, D., (1999), “Does Trade Cause Growth?”, American Economic Review, 89, (3), 379-399.
• FINE, B. (2000), “Endogenous growth theory: a critical assesment”, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 24, (2), 245-265.
• FREUND, C. (2005), “Current Account Deficits in Industrial Countries: The Bigger They are, The Harder They Fall?”, NBER Working Paper, No.11823, İnternet Adresi; http://www.nber.org/papers/w11823, Access date: 01.11.2005.
• GUJARATI, DOMADOR N. (2001), Temel Ekonometri, (Çeviren: Ümit Şenesen, Gülay Günlük Şenesen), 2. Baskı, Literatür Yayıncılık: İstanbul.
• HALICIOĞLU, F. (2003), “Testing Wagner's Law for Turkey, 1960-2000”, Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, 1(2), 129-140.
• JAYARAMAN, T, K. (2001), “Effiency of Fiscal and Monetary Policies in the South Pacific Island Countries: Some Empirical Evidence”, Indian Economic Journal, 49, 63-72.
• KANDIL, M., GREENE, J. (2002), “The Impact of Cyclical Factors on the U.S. Balance of Payments”, IMF Working Paper, No.45.
• KWIATKOWSKI D., PHILLIPS P., SCHMIDT P., SHIN Y. (1992), "Testing the null hypothesis of stationary against the alternative of a unit root: how sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?", Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159-178.
• SARI, R. (2003), “Kamu Harcamalarının Dünyada ve Türkiye'deki Gelişimi ve Türkiye'de Ulusal Gelir ile İlişkisi”, İktisat İşletme ve Finans Dergisi,18(209), 25-38.
• SACHS, J.D., WARNER, A. (1995), “Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.
• SATTAR, Z. (1993), Public Expenditure and Economic Performance: A Comparison of Developed and Low-Income Developing Economies, Journal of International Development, 5(1), 27-49.
• ŞİMŞEK, M. (2004), “Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme, 1965-2002”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 18(1/2), 37-52.
• MILLER, S.M., UPADHYAY, M.P. (2000), “The Effects of Openness, Trade Orientation, and Human Capital on Total Factor Productivity”, Journal of Development Economics, 63, 399- 423.
• ÖZMEN, E. ve Furtun G. (1998), “Export-led growth hypothesis and the Turkish data: An empirical investication”, METU Studies in Development, 25(3), 491-503.
• TERZİ, H. (1998), “Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Kalkınma İlişkisi Üze-rine Ekonometrik Bir İnceleme”, İktisat İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, 142, 67-78.
• ULUSOY, A., ZENGİN, A. (1998), “Türkiye’de Kamu Ekonomisi ve Mali Kriz”, XII. Türkiye Maliye Sempozyumu Bildiri Kitabı, İ.Ü Maliye Bölümü Yayın-ları, No: 83, İstanbul.
• UTKULU, U., ÖZDEMİR, D. (2004), “Does Trade Liberalization Cause a Long Run Economic Growth in Turkey?”, Economics of Planning, 37, 245-266.
• YAMAK, R., ZENGİN, A. (1996), “Kalman Filtre Yöntemi ve Wagner Ya-sası”, DİE Araştırma Sempozyumu, Ankara.
• YİĞİDİM, A., KÖSE, N. (1997), “İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki, İthalatın Rolü: Türkiye Örneği (1980-1996)”, Ekonomik Yaklaşım. 8(26), 71-85.