İHRACATA DAYALI BÜYÜME HİPOTEZİNE YENİ BİR YAKLAŞIM: TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ ÜZERİNE SEKTÖREL BİR UYGULAMA

Year 2018, Issue: 20, 119 - 134, 10.01.2018

Alper Aslan Ebru Topcu

https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.338806

Cited By: 7

Abstract

İhracata dayalı büyüme hipotezi, ihracatla büyüme arasındaki nedensel ilişkinin yönünün ihracattan
büyümeye doğru olduğunu kabul etmektedir. Büyüme literatüründe ihracata dayalı büyüme hipotezi üzerine
yapılan çalışmalar genellikle makro bazda bulgular sunmaktadır. Mikro boyutta olan çalışmalar ise göreceli
olarak daha az sayıdadır. Bu noktadan hareketle çalışmanın temel amacı, Türkiye’de 2000-2015 döneminde
sektörel ihracatın ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisinin analiz edilmesidir. Bu doğrultuda, sekiz sektöre ait
üçer aylık veriler kullanılarak kurulan ampirik modeller zaman serisi yöntemlerinden Tam Uyarlanmış En Küçük
Kareler (FMOLS-Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares) ve Dinamik En Küçük Kareler (DOLS-Dynamic Ordinary
Least Squares) tahmincileri kullanılarak tahmin edilmiştir. Elde edilen ampirik bulgular makro boyutta ihracata
dayalı büyüme hipotezinin geçerli olduğunu göstermiştir. Mikro bazdaki bulgular ise ihracata dayalı büyüme
hipotezinin altı sektörde geçerli olduğunu göstermiştir. 

Keywords

ihracat; ekonomik büyüme; ihracata dayalı büyüme hipotezi; zaman serisi analizi

A NEW APPROACH TO EXPORT-LED GROWTH HYPOTHESIS: A SECTORAL EVIDENCE FROM TURKISH ECONOMY

Abstract

The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis suggests that the direction of causal relationship between exports and
growth is from exports to growth. Studies on Export-Led Growth Hypothesis in the growth literature have
frequently presented evidences at the aggregate level. The number of the studies at the disaggregate level
are relatively limited. Inspired from this point, the aim of this study is to examine the impact of sectoral
exports on economic growth in Turkey over the period 2000-2015. To this end, empirical models arised herein
are estimated using Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares
(DOLS) estimators in which quarterly data are gathered for eight sectors. Aggregated findings indicate the
validity of Export-Led Growth Hypothesis in Turkey. Disaggregated evidences, on the other hand, reveal the
validity of Export-Led Growth Hypothesis in six sectors.

Keywords

export; economic growth, export-led growth hypothesis, time series analysis.

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