LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SAVINGS AND MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS: THE CASE OF OECD COUNTRIES

Year 2018, Prof. Dr. Harun TERZI Special Issue, 207 - 226, 19.09.2018

Esra Bulut , Aykut Karakaya

https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.444201

Cited By: 2

Abstract

Succeeding the
specified economic targets of national economies, productive investments and
their financing are critical. In this sense, savings can be considered as
catalyst for investments. Taking this mission into account, the determinants of
savings raise a great concern. In this framework, the main objective of this study
is to estimate the effects of macroeconomic variables on saving types for the
21 OECD countries during the 2006-2015 period by using Dynamic Ordinary Least
Squares Mean Group (DOLSMG) panel cointegration method. Per capita income,
short-term real interest rates and the inflation decrease private savings but
the liquidity increases private savings. Inflation increases public savings; on
the other hand, growth rate, per capita income, short term real interest rates
and liquidity decrease public savings. The growth rate and liquidity increase
national savings while per capita income, short-term real interest rates, and
inflation decrease national savings. The findings in the study indicate that
negative relationship between the growth rate and the public savings supports the
Permanent Income Hypothesis while positive relationship between the growth rate
and national savings supports the Life-Cycle Income Hypothesis. However, our
analysis displays that the real interest rates influence savings negatively and
this implies that the income effect exceeds the substitution effect.

Keywords

Saving, Macroeconomic Indicators, Panel Unit Root Test, Panel Cointegration Analysis, OECD Countries

TASARRUFLAR VE MAKROEKONOMİK DEĞİŞKENLER ARASINDAKİ UZUN DÖNEMLİ İLİŞKİ: OECD ÜLKELERİ ÖRNEĞİ

Abstract

Ülke ekonomilerinin belirlenen iktisadi hedeflere erişmesinde, üretken
yatırımlar ve bu yatırımların finansmanı kritiktir. Bu yönüyle tasarruflar
yatırımların lokomotifi olarak değerlendirilebilir. Tasarrufların bu misyonu
göz önünde bulundurulduğunda, belirleyicilerinin neler olduğu dikkat çekicidir.
Bu çerçevede, çalışmanın amacı 2006-2015 döneminde 21 OECD ülkesi için tasarruf
türlerine göre makroekonomik değişkenlerin etkilerinin Ortalama Grup Dinamik En
Küçük Kareler (DOLSMG) panel eş bütünleşme yöntemiyle tahmin edilmesidir. Tahmin
sonuçlarına göre; özel tasarrufları kişi başına gelirin, kısa dönem reel faiz
oranının ve enflasyonun azalttığı; likiditenin ise artırdığı görülmüştür. Kamu
tasarruflarını enflasyonun artırdığı; büyüme oranı, kişi başına gelir, kısa
dönem reel faiz oranı ve likiditenin ise azalttığı gözlenmiştir. Ulusal
tasarrufları büyüme oranı ve likidite artırırken; kişi başına gelir, kısa dönem
reel faiz oranı ve enflasyonun azalttığı tespit edilmiştir. Çalışmada büyüme
oranı ve kamu tasarrufları arasındaki negatif ilişki Sürekli Gelir Hipotezi’ne
işaret ederken; büyüme oranı ve ulusal tasarruflar arasındaki pozitif ilişki
Yaşam Boyu Gelir Hipotezi’ni desteklemektedir. Reel faiz oranlarının
tasarruflar üzerindeki negatif etkisi ise gelir etkisinin ikame etkisini
aştığını göstermektedir.

Keywords

Tasarruf, Makroekonomik Değişkenler, Panel Birim Kök Testi, Panel Eş Bütünleşme Analizi

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