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OPTİMAL PARA ALANI TEORİSİ ÇERÇEVESİNDE TOPLAM TALEP VE ARZ ŞOKLARININ BENZERLİĞİ, BÜYÜKLÜĞÜ VE UYUM HIZI

Year 2018, Prof. Dr. Harun TERZI Special Issue, 227 - 242, 19.09.2018
https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.450763

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, Euro bölgesinin seçilmiş sekiz AB ülkesi
için optimal para alanının uygun olup olmadığının belirlenmesi amacıyla,
ülkelerin arz ve talep şokların benzerliği diğer bir ifadeyle şokların simetrik
olup olmadığı sınanmıştır. Birliğe üye ülkelerin karşılaştıkları şokların
simetrik olması ve uyum hızlarının yüksek olması, söz konusu şoklara karşı uygulanacak
politikalar arasında uyumun sağlanması olasılığını arttırmaktadır. Öncelikle
her bir ülke ekonomisine ait toplam talep ve arz şoklarını elde etmek amacıyla,
Blanchard ve Quah (1989) tarafından uzun dönemli kısıtlamalara yönelik
geliştirilen SVAR modeli kullanılmıştır. Sonrasında 1999:I-2016:IV dönemi için
sekiz AB ülkesinin Euro bölgesi içerisinde ortak bir optimal para alanı
oluşturup oluşturamayacağının tespit edilmesi amacıyla, ilgili ülke
ekonomilerine ait toplam talep ve arz şoklarının benzerlikleri, büyüklükleri ve
uyum hızları hesaplanmıştır. Arz ve talep şoklarının korelasyon analizi, uyum
hızları ve şok büyüklükleri incelendiğinde ele alınan ülkeler kapsamında
optimal para alanı uygulamasının uygun olmadığı sonucuna varılmıştır. 

References

  • Bayoumi, T. (1994). A Formal Model of Optimal Currency Areas. IMF Staff Papers, 41, 537-554.
  • Bayoumi, T. ve Eichengreen, B. (1991). Is There A Conflict Between EC Enlargement And European Moentary Unification?. Greece Economic Review, 15.
  • Bayoumi, T. ve Eichengreen, B. (1992). Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification. NBER Working Paper, 3949.
  • Bayoumi, T. ve Eichengreen, B. (1994). One Money or Many? Analyzing The Prospects for Monetary Unification in Varios Parts of The World. Princeton Studies in International Finance, No:76, September, Princeton.
  • Blanchard, O. J. ve Quah, D. (1989). The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances”. American Economic Review, 79, 655-673.
  • Chadha, J.S. ve Hudson, S.L. (1998). The Optimum Currency Area Case for EMU: A Structural VAR Approach. University of Southampton Discussion Papers, 9815.
  • Corden, W. M. (1972). Monetary Integration, Essays İn International Finance. International Finance Section, No: 93, Princeton University, Department Of Economics.
  • Cover, J. P., Enders, W. ve Hueng, C. J. (2006). Using The Aggregate Demand-Aggregate Supply Model to Identifying Structural Demand-Side And Supply- Side Shocks: Results Using A Bivariate VAR. Journal of Money, Credit And Banking, 38(3), 777-790.
  • Demirel, B. (2011). Optimal Para Alanları Kuramı ve Türkiye’nin AB Para Sistemine Katılım Durumunun Analizi. (Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi). Gazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Ankara.
  • Eickmeıer, S. ve Bretung, J. (2005). How Synchronized Are Central and East European Economics with The Euro Area? Evidence from Structural Factor Model. Deutsche Bundesbank, Discussion Paper Series 1, Economic Studies No 20/2005.
  • Enders, W. (2004). Applied Econometric Time Series. Willey Series, Second Edition.Fleming, M, J. (1971). On Exchange Rate Unification. Economic Journal, 81, 467-488.
  • Haberler, G. (1970). The International Monetary System: Some Recent Developments and Discussions. Princeton University Press, 115-23.
  • Horvath, R., ve Komarek, L. (2002). Optimum Currency Area Theory: An Approach for Thinking about Monetary Integration. University Of Warwick, Warwick Economic Research Papers, No. 647.
  • Ingram, J. (1973). The Case for European Monetary Integration. Princeton Essays in International Finance, No. 98, April.
  • Ishiyama, Y. (1975). The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas; A Survey. IMF Staff Paper, 22, 344-383.
  • Kenen, P.B. (1969). The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas: An Eclectic View. In Mundell R.A. Ve A.K. Swoboda (Ed.), Problems of The International Economy. Chicago and London: The University of Chicago Press, 41-60.Kenny, P. (2003). The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas. Student Economic Review, 17, 137-149.
  • Kouparıitsas, M. A. (1999). Is EMU A Viable Commend Currency Area? A VAR Analysis of Regional Business Cycle.. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Economic Perspectives, 4.
  • Lucas, R. E. (1972). Econometric Testing of The Natural Rate Hypothesis. In O. Eckstein Ed, The Econometrics of Price Determination. Washington: Board of Governors, Federal Reserve System: 50-59.McKinnon, R.I. (1963). Optimum Currency Areas. American Economic Review, 53(4), 717-725.
  • Mongelli, F. P. (2002). New Views on The Optimum Currency Area Theory: What Is EMU Telling Us?. ECB.
  • Mundell, R.A. (1961). Optimum Currency Areas. American Economic Review, 51(4), 657-665.
  • Ricci, L. A. (2008). A Model of an Optimum Currency Area. The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal Economics, 2, March.
  • Samsar, A. (2003). Optimal Para Alanı Teorisi Çerçevesinde Türkiye Analizi, (TCMB Uzmanlık Yeterlilik Tezi). Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası İstatistik Genel Müdürlüğü, Ankara.
  • Shioji, E. (2000). Monetary Shocks and Endogeneity of The Optimum Currency Area Criteria: Reconsidering The European Monetary Unification. Yokohama National University Working Paper.
  • Tanrıöver B. (2013). Konjonktürel Dalgalanmalar Çerçevesnde İktisadi Şokların Sürekliliği. (Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi). Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Trabzon.
  • Tavlas, G. S. (1993). The New Theory of Optimal Currency Areas. The World Economy, 16, 663-667.
  • Willett, T. ve Tower, E. (1976). The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas and Exchange Rate Flexibility. Special Papers in International Economics, 11.

THE SIMILARITY, SIZE AND ADJUSTMENT SPEED OF AGGREGATED DEMAND AND SUPPLY SHOCKS WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF OPTIMAL CURRENCY AREA THEORY

Year 2018, Prof. Dr. Harun TERZI Special Issue, 227 - 242, 19.09.2018
https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.450763

Abstract

In this study, the
similarity of aggregate demand supply and of countries, in other words whether
the shocks are symmetrical has been tested, in order to determine whether the
optimal currency area is suitable for the eight selected EU countries of the Euro
zone. The fact that shocks experienced by member states of the Union are
symmetric and the rates of their adjustment speed of shocks are high increases
the likelihood of ensuring compatibility between the policies to be implemented
against shocks. In this regard, the SVAR model developed by Blanchard and Quah
(1989) for long-term constraints has been used to obtain aggregate demand and
supply shocks for each country’s economy. Afterwards, the similarities, sizes,
and adjustment speeds of shocks for
1999:I-2016:IV have been calculated separately
for aggregate demand and supply shocks of the respective countries’ economies
in order to determine whether the eight EU countries could constitute a common
optimal currency area within the Eurozone. When correlation analysis of sizes,
and adjustment speeds of demand and supply shocks are examined, it has been
found that the application of optimal currency area is not suitable within the
scope of the countries considered.

References

  • Bayoumi, T. (1994). A Formal Model of Optimal Currency Areas. IMF Staff Papers, 41, 537-554.
  • Bayoumi, T. ve Eichengreen, B. (1991). Is There A Conflict Between EC Enlargement And European Moentary Unification?. Greece Economic Review, 15.
  • Bayoumi, T. ve Eichengreen, B. (1992). Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification. NBER Working Paper, 3949.
  • Bayoumi, T. ve Eichengreen, B. (1994). One Money or Many? Analyzing The Prospects for Monetary Unification in Varios Parts of The World. Princeton Studies in International Finance, No:76, September, Princeton.
  • Blanchard, O. J. ve Quah, D. (1989). The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances”. American Economic Review, 79, 655-673.
  • Chadha, J.S. ve Hudson, S.L. (1998). The Optimum Currency Area Case for EMU: A Structural VAR Approach. University of Southampton Discussion Papers, 9815.
  • Corden, W. M. (1972). Monetary Integration, Essays İn International Finance. International Finance Section, No: 93, Princeton University, Department Of Economics.
  • Cover, J. P., Enders, W. ve Hueng, C. J. (2006). Using The Aggregate Demand-Aggregate Supply Model to Identifying Structural Demand-Side And Supply- Side Shocks: Results Using A Bivariate VAR. Journal of Money, Credit And Banking, 38(3), 777-790.
  • Demirel, B. (2011). Optimal Para Alanları Kuramı ve Türkiye’nin AB Para Sistemine Katılım Durumunun Analizi. (Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi). Gazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Ankara.
  • Eickmeıer, S. ve Bretung, J. (2005). How Synchronized Are Central and East European Economics with The Euro Area? Evidence from Structural Factor Model. Deutsche Bundesbank, Discussion Paper Series 1, Economic Studies No 20/2005.
  • Enders, W. (2004). Applied Econometric Time Series. Willey Series, Second Edition.Fleming, M, J. (1971). On Exchange Rate Unification. Economic Journal, 81, 467-488.
  • Haberler, G. (1970). The International Monetary System: Some Recent Developments and Discussions. Princeton University Press, 115-23.
  • Horvath, R., ve Komarek, L. (2002). Optimum Currency Area Theory: An Approach for Thinking about Monetary Integration. University Of Warwick, Warwick Economic Research Papers, No. 647.
  • Ingram, J. (1973). The Case for European Monetary Integration. Princeton Essays in International Finance, No. 98, April.
  • Ishiyama, Y. (1975). The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas; A Survey. IMF Staff Paper, 22, 344-383.
  • Kenen, P.B. (1969). The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas: An Eclectic View. In Mundell R.A. Ve A.K. Swoboda (Ed.), Problems of The International Economy. Chicago and London: The University of Chicago Press, 41-60.Kenny, P. (2003). The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas. Student Economic Review, 17, 137-149.
  • Kouparıitsas, M. A. (1999). Is EMU A Viable Commend Currency Area? A VAR Analysis of Regional Business Cycle.. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Economic Perspectives, 4.
  • Lucas, R. E. (1972). Econometric Testing of The Natural Rate Hypothesis. In O. Eckstein Ed, The Econometrics of Price Determination. Washington: Board of Governors, Federal Reserve System: 50-59.McKinnon, R.I. (1963). Optimum Currency Areas. American Economic Review, 53(4), 717-725.
  • Mongelli, F. P. (2002). New Views on The Optimum Currency Area Theory: What Is EMU Telling Us?. ECB.
  • Mundell, R.A. (1961). Optimum Currency Areas. American Economic Review, 51(4), 657-665.
  • Ricci, L. A. (2008). A Model of an Optimum Currency Area. The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal Economics, 2, March.
  • Samsar, A. (2003). Optimal Para Alanı Teorisi Çerçevesinde Türkiye Analizi, (TCMB Uzmanlık Yeterlilik Tezi). Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası İstatistik Genel Müdürlüğü, Ankara.
  • Shioji, E. (2000). Monetary Shocks and Endogeneity of The Optimum Currency Area Criteria: Reconsidering The European Monetary Unification. Yokohama National University Working Paper.
  • Tanrıöver B. (2013). Konjonktürel Dalgalanmalar Çerçevesnde İktisadi Şokların Sürekliliği. (Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi). Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Trabzon.
  • Tavlas, G. S. (1993). The New Theory of Optimal Currency Areas. The World Economy, 16, 663-667.
  • Willett, T. ve Tower, E. (1976). The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas and Exchange Rate Flexibility. Special Papers in International Economics, 11.
There are 26 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Banu Tanrıöver

Serdar Kurt This is me

Publication Date September 19, 2018
Published in Issue Year 2018 Prof. Dr. Harun TERZI Special Issue

Cite

APA Tanrıöver, B., & Kurt, S. (2018). OPTİMAL PARA ALANI TEORİSİ ÇERÇEVESİNDE TOPLAM TALEP VE ARZ ŞOKLARININ BENZERLİĞİ, BÜYÜKLÜĞÜ VE UYUM HIZI. Uluslararası İktisadi Ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi227-242. https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.450763

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