PARA ARZININ İÇSELLİĞİ HİPOTEZİ: TÜRKİYE İÇİN AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ (2006-2018)

Year 2019, Issue: 24, 131 - 150, 24.07.2019

Asuman Koç Yurtkur

https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.539915

Cited By: 3

Abstract

Para arzının
içselliğinin tartışılması eskilere dayanan bir konu olmasına rağmen, bir teori
olarak ele alınması Post Keynesyen İktisatçılar’a dayanmaktadır. Para arzının
içselliği hipotezinde Post Keynesyen İktisatçılar, bir ekonomide kredi ile para
arzı ve parasal taban arasında bir nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğunu ileri
sürmektedirler. Bu çalışmada 2006-2018 dönemi aylık verileri kullanılarak Türkiye
ekonomisi için para arzının içselliği hipotezi araştırılmaktadır. Analizde
yöntem olarak Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik prosedürü ve Bootstrap Toda-Yamamoto
nedensellik analizi prosedürü kullanılmaktadır. Ampirik bulgular, krediden para
arzına, parasal tabana ve para çarpanına doğru bir nedensellik ilişkisi
olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca para arzından krediye doğru da bir nedensellik
ilişkisi söz konusudur. Bu durumda, kredi ile para çarpanı arasındaki çift
yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi, para arzının içselliği ile ilgili likidite tercihi
görüşünü desteklemektedir.

Keywords

Para Arzının İçselliği Hipotezi, Uyumcu Görüş, Yapısalcı Görüş, Likidite Tercihi Görüşü

THE ENDOGENOUS MONEY HYPOTHESIS: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR TURKEY (2006-2018)

Abstract

The idea of the hypothesis of the money supply as a theory
is based on the Post Keynesians. This hypothesis suggests that there is
a causal relationship between credit and money supply and monetary base in an
economy. With
the developing financial system and financial innovations, the endogeneity of
money supply is one of the priority issues to be studied. For this reason
it is important to consider the endogeneity of money supply in a theoretical
and empirical context. In this study, the hypothesis of endogeneity money supply
for Turkey's economy was investigated by Toda-Yamamoto and Bootstrap
Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis procedures for the period 2006-2018. Empirical
findings show that there is a causal relationship between credit and money
supply, monetary base and money multiplier. There is also a causal relationship
from money supply to credit. In this case,
the bidirectional causality relationship between credit and money multiplier
supports the view of liquidity preference regarding the endogeneity of money
supply.

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