TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDE İŞSİZLİĞİN BELİRLEYİCİSİ OLAN TEMEL MAKROEKONOMİK DEĞİŞKENLERİN TESPİTİNE İLİŞKİN BİR UYGULAMA

Year 2019, Issue: 25, 235 - 252, 25.10.2019

Fatih Ayhan

https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.567458

Cited By: 4

Abstract

İşsizlik sorunu ekonomik ve toplumsal boyutları nedeniyle özel önem taşıyan bir sorundur. Türkiye ekonomisi için de kronik bir ekonomik problem haline gelmiş olması ve sürekli işsizlikle mücadeleye ilişkin özel önlemler alınıyor olması, işsizlik sorunun Türkiye ekonomisi için önemini ortaya koymaktadır. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de ekonomisinde işsizliğin makroekonomik belirleyicileri 2005.1-2018.11 dönemi için analiz edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Çalışmada işsiz sayısının belirleyicileri ARDL modeli yanında DOLS, FMOLS ve Eşik regresyon modelleri de kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. ARDL modeli bulgularına göre sanayi üretiminin işsiz sayısını beklentilere uygun olarak negatif, TÜFE ve faiz oranının ise pozitif etkilediği bulunmuştur. Reel efektif döviz kurunun ise işsiz sayısını pozitif etkilediği ancak katsayının istatistiksel olarak anlamsız çıktığı bulunmuştur. Alternatif modeller olan FMOLS ve DOLS ve Eşik Regresyon modellerine de ARDL modeli ile benzer sonuçlar vermiştir.

Keywords

İşsizlik, Makroekonomik değişkenler, ARDL, FMOLS, DOLS

Supporting Institution

Bandırma Onyedi Eylül Üniversitesi

Project Number

BAP-19-1009-005 numaralı proje

Thanks

Bandırma Onyedi Eylül Üniversitesi Bilimsel Araştırma Projeleri Koordinasyon Birimi tarafından BAP-19-1009-005 numaralı proje ile desteklenmiştir.

AN APPLICATION FOR THE VARIABLES DETERMINING UNEMPLOYMENT IN TURKISH ECONOMY

Abstract

The problem
of unemployment has special importance because of its economic and social dimensions.
That also has become a chronic economic problems for Turkey's economy and
continuing the fight against unemployment for special measures to be taken, it
reveals the importance of the unemployment problem for Turkey's economy. In
this study, the macroeconomic determinants of unemployment in Turkey has tried
to be analyzed for 2005.1-2018.11 period. In the study, the determinants of the
number of unemployed were analyzed by using the ARDL model as well as DOLS,
FMOLS and Threshold regression models. According to the findings of the ARDL
model, industrial production affets negatively the number of unemployed people
in line with expectations, and the CPI and interest rate affects positively. The
real effective exchange rate affects the number of unemployed positively, but
its coefficient is statistically insignificant. FMOLS, DOLS and Threshold
Regression models have also similar results with the ARDL model for Turkish
Economy.                                                                      

Project Number

BAP-19-1009-005 numaralı proje

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