THE TWIN DEFICITS OR NEGATIVE REVERSE CAUSALITY? A NONLINEAR APPROACH TO THE TURKISH BUDGET AND CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES

Year 2022, Issue: 36, 1 - 20, 07.08.2022

Osman Murat Telatar

https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.1124266

Abstract

The budget deficit causing an increase in the current account deficit is named twin deficits. In addition, the budget and current account balances represent the internal and external balance of the economy. As in many developed and developing countries, revealing the relationship between internal and external imbalances in the Turkish economy in terms of determining economic policies is very important. Most of the studies on twin deficits in the literature are based on analyzes with linear models. The aim of this study, unlike other studies in the literature, is to examine the relationship between the budget and current account balance in the Turkish economy with non-linear time series analysis. For this purpose, nonlinear unit root and cointegration tests were applied to the data covering the period 1994-2021. The findings show that the negative reverse causality hypothesis is valid instead of the twin deficits hypothesis in the Turkish economy in the analyzed period. Accordingly, there is a negative relationship from the current account balance to the budget balance in both the long and short run.

Keywords

Budget Balance, Current Account Balance, Nonlinear Unit Root Test, Nonlinear Cointegration Test, STAR-ARDL Model

İKİZ AÇIKLAR MI YOKSA NEGATİF TERS NEDENSELLİK Mİ? TÜRKİYE BÜTÇE VE CARİ İŞLEMLER DENGELERİ ÜZERİNE DOĞRUSAL OLMAYAN BİR YAKLAŞIM

Abstract

Bütçe açığının cari işlemler açığında artışa neden olması ikiz açıklar olarak adlandırılır. Ayrıca bütçe ve cari işlemler dengeleri ekonominin iç ve dış dengesini de temsil etmektedir. Gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan birçok ülkede olduğu gibi Türkiye ekonomisinde de iç ve dış dengesizlikler arasındaki ilişkinin ortaya konulması ekonomik politikaların belirlenmesi açısından oldukça önemlidir. Literatürdeki ikiz açıklarla ilgili çalışmaların çok büyük bir kısmı doğrusal modellerle yapılan analizlere dayanmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, literatürdeki diğer çalışmalardan farklı olarak, Türkiye ekonomisinde bütçe ve cari işlemler dengesi arasındaki ilişkiyi doğrusal olmayan zaman serileri analizi ile incelemektir. Bu amaçla 1994-2021 dönemini kapsayan verilere doğrusal olmayan birim kök ve eşbütünleşme testleri uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, incelen dönemde Türkiye ekonomisinde ikiz açıklar hipotezi yerine negatif ters nedensellik hipotezinin geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir. Buna göre hem uzun hem de ksa dönemde cari işlemler dengesinden bütçe dengesine doğru negatif bir ilişki bulunmaktadır.

Keywords

Bütçe Dengesi, Cari İşlemler Dengesi, Doğrusal Olmayan Birim Kök Testi, Doğrusal Olmayan Eştümleşme Testi, STAR- ARDL Modeli

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