IS THE PUBLIC FINANCE DEFICIT A RISK ON INFLATION IN TURKEY?

Year 2023, Issue: C-iasoS 2022 Özel Sayısı, 1 - 10, 30.03.2023

Huriye Gonca Diler

https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.1219713

Abstract

Price stability is the goal of economic policy. The policies implemented to achieve this goal can cause various problems such as financing the public deficit in economies. In this study, it is investigated whether public deficit financing has an impact on inflation in the period of 1975-2021 in Turkey. In the analysis, the financing of the public deficit is represented by the public sector borrowing requirement. Since the money to be released to the market due to the public sector borrowing requirement will affect the consumer price index, it has been chosen as the dependent variable. After the stationarity analysis of the series, the causality relationship between the series was investigated with the Toda-Yamamoto causality test. A relationship from inflation indicator to public deficit financing has been determined. The findings of the analysis for the period examined showed that, contrary to the widely accepted opinion in the literature, public deficit financing in Turkey did not cause an inflationary effect.

Keywords

Inflatıon, Public Finance Debt, ADF Unit Root Test, LM Unit Root Test, Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test

TÜRKİYE'DE KAMU AÇIĞI FİNANSMANI ENFLASYON ÜZERİNDE RİSK MİDİR?

Abstract

Fiyat istikrarı, ekonomi politikasının amacıdır. Bu amaca ulaşmak için uygulanan politikalar ekonomilerde kamu açığı finansmanı gibi çeşitli sorunlara yol açabilmektedir. Kamu açığının finansmanı GSYH'den yapıldığı için finansman değerinin GSYİH'ya oranı önemlidir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de 1975-2021 döneminde kamu açığı finansmanının enflasyona etki edip etmediği araştırılmaktadır. Bu amaçla yapılacak analizde kamu açığının finansmanı kamu kesimi borçlanma gereği ile temsil edilmektedir ve GSYİH içindeki payı ekonometrik değişken olarak kabul edilmektedir. Ayrıca kamu kesiminin borçlanma gereği nedeniyle piyasaya çıkacak paranın öncelikle tüketici fiyat endeksini etkileyeceği düşünülmüştür. Analizde bağımlı değişken olarak kabul edilen enflasyon göstergesi TÜFE ile temsil edilmektedir. Değişken serilerinin durağanlığı incelendikten sonra Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi ile seriler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi araştırılmıştır. Araştırma sonucunda enflasyon göstergesinden kamu açığı finansmanına doğru bir ilişki tespit edilmiştir. İncelenen döneme ilişkin analiz bulguları, literatürde yaygın olarak kabul edilen görüşün aksine Türkiye'de kamu açığı finansmanının enflasyonist bir etkiye yol açmadığını göstermiştir.

Keywords

Enflasyon, Kamu Açığı Finansmanı, ADF Birim Kök Testi, LM Birim Kök Testi, Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Testi

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