İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİ GELİŞEN PİYASA EKONOMİLERİNDE ENFLASYONU NASIL ETKİLEMEKTEDİR?

Year 2025, Issue: 47, 245 - 266, 06.05.2025

Elif Duygu Kömürcüoğlu , Seyfettin Artan

https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.1624464

Abstract

İklim değişikliğinin ekonomik faaliyetler üzerindeki etkileri, literatürde giderek daha fazla önem kazanmaktadır. Son yıllarda ise özellikle enflasyon dinamiklerine yönelik yansımaları tartışılmaktadır. İklim değişikliğinden kaynaklanan arz şokları ve ekonomik kırılganlıklar, fiyat seviyelerinde dalgalanmalara yol açarak merkez bankalarının fiyat istikrarı hedeflerini gerçekleştirmesini zorlaştırabilmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, iklim değişikliğinin enflasyon üzerindeki etkisini gelişen piyasa ekonomileri için Driscoll-Kraay dirençli standart hatalar yöntemi aracılığıyla analiz etmektir. Çalışmada, 2000-2022 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanılmış ve iklim değişikliğini temsilen bir endeks hesaplanmıştır. Analiz bulguları, iklim değişikliğinin gelişen piyasa ekonomilerinde enflasyonu yukarı yönlü etkilediğini ortaya koymaktadır. Bu sonuçlar, merkez bankalarının fiyat istikrarı görevini yerine getirirken iklim değişikliğini dikkate almaları gerektiğini işaret etmektedir.

Keywords

İklim Değişikliği, Merkez Bankacılığı, Enflasyon

HOW DOES CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT INFLATION IN EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES?

Abstract

The effects of climate change on economic activities are growing in importance in the literature. In recent years, especially its implications on inflation dynamics have been discussed. Supply shocks and economic vulnerabilities caused by climate change may lead to fluctuations in price levels, making it difficult for central banks to achieve their price stability targets. The aim of this study is to analyze the impact of climate change on inflation for emerging market economies using the Driscoll-Kraay robust standard errors method. This study uses annual data for the period 2000-2022 and an index representing climate change is constructed. The findings of the analysis reveal that climate change has an upward impact on inflation in emerging market economies. These results suggest that central banks should take climate change into account while achieving their price stability mandate.

Keywords

Climate Change, Central Banking, Inflation

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