Sert Gücün Gölgesinde Rusya’nın Askeri Kapasitesi ve Yakın Çevresinde Güvenlik Dinamikleri: Post-Sovyet Coğrafyada Askeri Baskı ve Caydırıcılık Stratejileri

Year 2026, Volume: 6 Issue: 1, 57 - 75, 10.01.2026

Zeynep Deniz Altınsoy

https://doi.org/10.62334/ulipod.1835748

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Rusya’nın sert güç kapasitesini post-Sovyet coğrafyada güvenlik dinamiklerini şekillendirme aracı olarak analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Özellikle Kremlin’in askeri baskı ve caydırıcılık stratejileri üzerinden bölgesel düzen kurma çabaları incelenmektedir. Araştırmanın temel amacı, Rusya’nın yakın çevresinde uyguladığı askeri müdahale biçimlerinin hem fiziksel hem de psikolojik etkilerini ortaya koymak ve bu stratejilerin uluslararası hukuk, bölgesel istikrar ve normatif düzen açısından sonuçlarını değerlendirmektir. Çalışma, nitel araştırma yöntemine dayanmaktadır. Olay temelli analiz yaklaşımıyla Gürcistan (2008), Ukrayna (2014 ve 2022) gibi örnek vakalar üzerinden Rusya’nın askeri kapasite kullanımı incelenmiş; resmi doktrinler, güvenlik belgeleri ve bölgesel aktörlerin tepkileri karşılaştırmalı olarak değerlendirilmiştir. Literatür taraması, söylem analizi ve stratejik belge incelemesi yoluyla Rusya’nın caydırıcılık mimarisi çok katmanlı bir perspektifle ele alınmıştır.

Keywords

Caydırıcılık Stratejileri , Post-Sovyet Güvenlik Alanı , Rusya'nın Askerî Güç Projeksiyonu , Sert Güç Rusya , Yakın Çevre.

In the Shadow of Hard Power Russia’s Military Capacity and Security Dynamics in its Near Abroad: Military Coercion and Deterrence Strategies in the Post-Soviet Space

Abstract

This study aims to analyze Russia’s hard power capacity as an instrument for shaping security dynamics in the post-Soviet space. In particular, it examines the Kremlin’s efforts to establish a regional order through strategies of military coercion and deterrence. The main objective of the research is to reveal the physical and psychological effects of Russia’s modes of military intervention in its near abroad and to evaluate the consequences of these strategies in terms of international law, regional stability, and the normative order. The study is based on qualitative research methods. Using an event-based analytical approach, it examines Russia’s use of military power through case studies such as Georgia (2008) and Ukraine (2014 and 2022), while official doctrines, security documents, and the reactions of regional actors are evaluated comparatively. Through literature review, discourse analysis, and the examination of strategic documents, Russia’s deterrence architecture is addressed from a multi-layered perspective.

Keywords

Deterrence Strategies , Near Abroad , Post-Soviet Security Space , Russia’s Military Power Projection , Russian Hard Power.

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