PV Güç Santrallerinden Elde Edilecek Enerjinin Makine Öğrenmesi Metotları Kullanılarak Tahmin Edilmesi

Year 2019, Volume: 11 Issue: 3, 769 - 779, 31.12.2019

Sinan UĞUZ Okan ORAL Nuri ÇAĞLAYAN

https://doi.org/10.29137/umagd.514933

Cited By: 4

Abstract

Elektrik enerjisi ihtiyacının artması, ülkeleri güvenilir, ucuz ve temiz enerji teminine yöneltmiştir. Son zamanlarda, bu enerji kaynakları arasından fotovoltaik güç sistemlerine dayalı olanlar öne çıkmıştır. Güneş enerjisi potansiyelinin yüksek olduğu Türkiye’de devlet teşvikleriyle birlikte fotovoltaik güç santrallerine olan yatırımların sayısı artmaktadır. Fotovoltaik santrallerin kuruluş yeri seçimi için fizibilite çalışmalarının yapılması ve buna bağlı olarak sistemlerin tasarlanması, yapılacak yatırımların ekonomikliliğinin belirlenmesi açısından önemli bir konu olarak görülmektedir. Santral kurulmadan önce ışınım enerjisine göre elde edilebilecek elektrik enerjisinin hesaplanması için eşitlikler ve yöntemler geliştirilmiştir. Bu yöntemlerden biri de makine öğrenme modellerinin geliştirilmesi ve simülasyon sonuçlarının elde edilmesidir. Bu çalışmada; Türkiye’de 125 farklı bölge için kurulması planlanan PV santrallerinin üreteceği elektrik gücünün, makine öğrenmesi modelleri ile tahmin edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda PV sistemler için güneş ışınımı tahmin edilmesinde artificial neural networks (ANN), multiple linear regression (MLR) ve k-nearest neighbors regression (KNNR) makine öğrenimi metodolojileri kullanılmıştır. Bu metodolojilerin performansını analiz etmek amacıyla bir dizi deneysel değerlendirmeler yapılmıştır. Değerlendirmeler için veri seti, Numpy, Pandas, Scipy gibi temel python kütüphanelerinin yanı sıra makine öğrenmesi uygulamaları için geliştirilmiş olan scikit-learn kütüphanesinde test edilmiştir. Deneysel sonuçlar, girdi olarak kullanılmış yedi adet bağımsız değişkenin, makine öğrenimine dayalı tahmin algoritmalarının çalıştırılmasıyla PV tarafında üretilen elektrik gücünü tahmin edebildiğini göstermiştir.

Keywords

Yenilenebilir enerji, makine öğrenmesi, multiple lineae regression (MLR), k-nearest neighbors regression (KNNR)

Estimation of Energy to be Obtained from PV Power Plants Using Machine Learning Methods

Abstract

The increase in the need for electricity has led the countries to provide reliable, inexpensive and clean energy. Recently, among those energy sources, those based on photovoltaic power systems have come forward. Solar energy potential in Turkey is high, the number of investments in photovoltaic power plants with government incentives are increasing. The feasibility studies for the selection of the location of photovoltaic plants and the design of the systems are considered as an important issue in terms of determining the economic value of the investments to be made. Equations and methods have been developed to calculate the electrical energy that can be obtained according to the radiant energy before the plant is established. One of these methods is to develop machine learning models and to obtain simulation results. In this study; The establishment of the 125 planned for different areas of electric power to be generated by the PV power plant in Turkey, aimed to estimate with machine learning models. For this purpose, in the estimation of solar radiation for PV systems; artificial neural networks (ANN), multiple linear regression (MLR) and k-nearest neighbors regression (KNNR) machine learning methodologies were used. In order to analyze the performance of these methodologies, a series of experimental evaluations were made. The data set for evaluations has been tested in basic python libraries such as Numpy, Pandas, Scipy, as well as in the scikit-learn library developed for machine learning applications. Experimental results have shown that seven independent variables used as input can predict the electrical power produced by PV based on the study of prediction algorithms based on machine learning.

Keywords

Renewable energy, machine learning, multiple lineae regression (MLR), k-nearest neighbors regression (KNNR)

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