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Comparison Between One and Two Dose Vaccine Applications Based on COVID-19 Cases with Simulation Method

Year 2022, Volume 14, Issue 1, 186 - 194, 31.01.2022
https://doi.org/10.29137/umagd.999729

Abstract

COVID-19 pandemic started Wuhan city in China affected world for almost one and half years and caused millions of infected and death people and great loss in economic activities. The most effective intervention strategy is vaccination to stop COVID-19 pandemic as it stopped other pandemics in history. The number of shots produced so far is insufficient for societies even though studies for developing vaccines started with the pandemic. Insufficient number of vaccines and the reasonable level protection of one-dose shot on individuals caused widespread criticisms of applications of two doses. In this study, applications of one dose and two dose vaccines are compared based on the number of cases by considering different efficacy levels, the number of shots, and delivery periods. SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) Network model where individuals can directly interact with others only in homes, schools, and workplaces while indirectly interacting with the remainings is used to mimic the pandemic. Thirty trials are conducted for each scenario included an application of one or two dose vaccines and independent sample t tests are carried out to understand whether differences between results are statistically significant for the model a-year pandemic duration and a-million population are considered in. The application of one dose vaccine significantly decreases the number of cases compared to two doses for the 60-day delivery period.

References

  • BBC News, "One Covid vaccine cuts infection rate in all age groups", BBC News, 23 Nisan 2021, Available: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-56844220, [Accessed: 2 Eylül 2021].
  • Calvó-Armengol A. and Jackson M. O. (2007). Networks in labor markets: Wage and employment dynamics and inequality, J. Econ. Theory, 132(1), 27–46. Doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2005.07.007
  • Carey Goldberg, "COVID-19 survivors may need just one shot of a two-dose vaccine", The Japan Times, 18 Nisan 2021, Available: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/04/18/world/coronavirus-vaccine-doses/, [Accessed: 2 Eylül 2021].
  • Catherine Schuster-Bruce, "How much protection you get from one shot of the Pfizer, AstraZeneca, and Moderna vaccines, according to the best available data", Insider, 9 Temmuz 2021, https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-vaccine-one-shot-effectiveness-pfizer-moderna-astrazeneca-vaccines-dose-2021-3, [Accessed: 2 Eylül 2021].
  • Cedars Sinai, "COVID-19 Survivors Might Need Just One Dose of Two-Part Vaccine", Cedars Sinai, 1 Nisan 2021, Available: https://www.cedars-sinai.org/newsroom/covid-19-survivors-might-need-just-one-dose-of-two-part-vaccine/, [Accessed: 2 Eylül 2021].
  • Chaney T. (2014). The network structure of international trade, Am. Econ. Rev., 104(11), 3600–3634. DOI: 10.1257/aer.104.11.3600
  • Craig B. R., Phelan T., Siedlarek J. P., and Steinberg J. (2020). Improving Epidemic Modeling with Networks, Econ. Comment. (Federal Reserv. Bank Cleveland), 1–8. DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202023
  • Demirbilek M. (2020). YAYsim: Salgın Modelleme ve Karar Destek Sistemi, Bilecik Şeyh Edebali Üniversitesi Fen Bilim. Dergisi, 7(1), 104–112. DOI: 10.35193/bseufbd.675734
  • Demirbilek, M. (2021). The Effect of School/Workplace Closures on COVID-19 Related Incidents. Avrupa Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi, (23), 62-69. Doi.org/10.31590/ejosat.842793
  • Demirbilek, M. (2021). Tam ve Kısmi Kapanma Stratejilerinin COVID-19 Salgını Üzerinden Karşılaştırılması. El-Cezeri, 8 (2) , 1024-1034, DOI: 10.31202/ecjse.909927.
  • Elliott M., Golub B., and Jackson M. O. (2014). Financial networks and contagion, American Economic Review, 104(10), 3115–3153. DOI: 10.1257/aer.104.10.3115
  • Hethcote, H.W. (2000). The mathematics of infectious diseases, SIAM review, 42(4), 599-653. Doi.org/10.1137/S0036144500371907 Joydeep Bose, "Covid-19 vaccine: One dose isn't enough. Govt explains why you need both", India News, 16 Nisan 2021, Available: https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/covid19-vaccine-one-dose-isn-t-enough-govt-explains-why-you-need-both-101618552568387.html, [Accessed: 2 Eylül 2021].
  • Lindsey Dawson, "What Does a Multi-Dose Series Mean for the COVID-19 Vaccination Effort?", KFF, 5 Şubat 2021, https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/what-does-a-multi-dose-series-mean-for-the-covid-19-vaccination-effort/, [Accessed: 2 Eylül 2021].
  • Mary Van Beusekom, "Real-world trial of Pfizer COVID vaccine finds high 2-dose, good 1-dose protection", CIDRAP, 24 Şubat 2021, https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/02/real-world-trial-pfizer-covid-vaccine-finds-high-2-dose-good-1-dose, [Accessed: 2 Eylül 2021].
  • Medlock, J. and Galvani, A.P. (2009). Optimizing influenza vaccine distribution, Science, 325(5948), 1705-1708. DOI: 10.1126/science.1175570
  • Oluwatosin Goje, "Why It’s Important to Get Your Second COVID-19 Vaccine Dose", Cleveland Clinic, 4 Mayıs 2021, https://health.clevelandclinic.org/why-its-important-to-get-your-second-covid-19-vaccine-dose/, [Accessed: 2 Eylül 2021].
  • Siegrist, C. A. (2008). Vaccine immunology. Vaccines, 5(1), 17-36.
  • Worldometers.info, “COVID19 Statistics”, Worldometers, 24 Mayıs 2021, Available: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/, [Accessed: 24 Mayıs 2021].
  • WHO, https://covid19.who.int/, 24 Mayıs 2021.
  • Zaria Gorvett, "How effective is a single vaccine dose against Covid-19?", BBC Future, 15 Ocak 2021, Available: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210114-covid-19-how-effective-is-a-single-vaccine-dose, [Accessed: 2 Eylül 2021].
  • Zaric, G.S. and Brandeau, M.L. (2001). Resource allocation for epidemic control over short time horizons, Mathematical Biosciences, 171(1), 33-58. Doi.org/10.1016/S0025-5564(01)00050-5

Tek ve Çift Doz Aşı Uygulamalarının COVID-19 Vaka Sayıları Üzerinden Benzetim Yöntemiyle Karşılaştırılması

Year 2022, Volume 14, Issue 1, 186 - 194, 31.01.2022
https://doi.org/10.29137/umagd.999729

Abstract

Çin’in Wuhan şehrinde başlayan COVID-19 salgını yaklaşık bir buçuk yıllık bir sürede dünyayı etkisi altına almış, milyonlarca insanın hastalanmasına ve ölmesine, ekonomik faaliyetlerde büyük kayıplara neden olmuştur. Geçmişte diğer salgınların durdurulmasında kullanıldığı gibi COVID-19 salgınını durdurmak için kullanılacak en etkili müdahale stratejisi aşılamadır. Aşı geliştirme çalışmaları salgınla beraber başlamasına rağmen üretilen aşı sayısı toplumlar için hala çok yetersizdir. Kıt aşı miktarı ve tek doz aşı uygulamasının bireylerde belli ölçüde koruma sağlayabilmesi, iki doz halinde aşı uygulamasının birçok platformda eleştirilmesine yol açmıştır. Bu çalışmada farklı etkinlik düzeyleri, aşı miktarları ve dağıtım zamanları düşünülerek, Biontech aşısının tek ve çift doz halinde uygulanması, vaka sayıları üzerinden karşılaştırılmıştır. Salgının modellenmesinde, bireylerin diğer bireylerle, sadece ev, iş yeri ve okul gibi ortamlarda direkt etkileşim içinde, kalan bireylerle endirekt etkileşim içinde olabileceği SIR (Korunmasız-Hasta-İyileşen) Ağ modeli kullanılmıştır. Bir yıllık salgın süreci ve bir milyon kişilik popülasyonun düşünüldüğü modelde, tek ve çift doz aşı uygulama üzerine oluşturulan her senaryo için 30 koşum yapılmış ve sonuçlar arasındaki farklılıklar bağımsız örneklem t testi kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Altmış günlük dağıtım zamanı için çift doz uygulama ile karşılaştırıldığında, tek doz aşı uygulaması tüm etkinlik seviyelerinde vaka sayılarını önemli oranda düşürmüştür.

References

  • BBC News, "One Covid vaccine cuts infection rate in all age groups", BBC News, 23 Nisan 2021, Available: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-56844220, [Accessed: 2 Eylül 2021].
  • Calvó-Armengol A. and Jackson M. O. (2007). Networks in labor markets: Wage and employment dynamics and inequality, J. Econ. Theory, 132(1), 27–46. Doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2005.07.007
  • Carey Goldberg, "COVID-19 survivors may need just one shot of a two-dose vaccine", The Japan Times, 18 Nisan 2021, Available: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/04/18/world/coronavirus-vaccine-doses/, [Accessed: 2 Eylül 2021].
  • Catherine Schuster-Bruce, "How much protection you get from one shot of the Pfizer, AstraZeneca, and Moderna vaccines, according to the best available data", Insider, 9 Temmuz 2021, https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-vaccine-one-shot-effectiveness-pfizer-moderna-astrazeneca-vaccines-dose-2021-3, [Accessed: 2 Eylül 2021].
  • Cedars Sinai, "COVID-19 Survivors Might Need Just One Dose of Two-Part Vaccine", Cedars Sinai, 1 Nisan 2021, Available: https://www.cedars-sinai.org/newsroom/covid-19-survivors-might-need-just-one-dose-of-two-part-vaccine/, [Accessed: 2 Eylül 2021].
  • Chaney T. (2014). The network structure of international trade, Am. Econ. Rev., 104(11), 3600–3634. DOI: 10.1257/aer.104.11.3600
  • Craig B. R., Phelan T., Siedlarek J. P., and Steinberg J. (2020). Improving Epidemic Modeling with Networks, Econ. Comment. (Federal Reserv. Bank Cleveland), 1–8. DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202023
  • Demirbilek M. (2020). YAYsim: Salgın Modelleme ve Karar Destek Sistemi, Bilecik Şeyh Edebali Üniversitesi Fen Bilim. Dergisi, 7(1), 104–112. DOI: 10.35193/bseufbd.675734
  • Demirbilek, M. (2021). The Effect of School/Workplace Closures on COVID-19 Related Incidents. Avrupa Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi, (23), 62-69. Doi.org/10.31590/ejosat.842793
  • Demirbilek, M. (2021). Tam ve Kısmi Kapanma Stratejilerinin COVID-19 Salgını Üzerinden Karşılaştırılması. El-Cezeri, 8 (2) , 1024-1034, DOI: 10.31202/ecjse.909927.
  • Elliott M., Golub B., and Jackson M. O. (2014). Financial networks and contagion, American Economic Review, 104(10), 3115–3153. DOI: 10.1257/aer.104.10.3115
  • Hethcote, H.W. (2000). The mathematics of infectious diseases, SIAM review, 42(4), 599-653. Doi.org/10.1137/S0036144500371907 Joydeep Bose, "Covid-19 vaccine: One dose isn't enough. Govt explains why you need both", India News, 16 Nisan 2021, Available: https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/covid19-vaccine-one-dose-isn-t-enough-govt-explains-why-you-need-both-101618552568387.html, [Accessed: 2 Eylül 2021].
  • Lindsey Dawson, "What Does a Multi-Dose Series Mean for the COVID-19 Vaccination Effort?", KFF, 5 Şubat 2021, https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/what-does-a-multi-dose-series-mean-for-the-covid-19-vaccination-effort/, [Accessed: 2 Eylül 2021].
  • Mary Van Beusekom, "Real-world trial of Pfizer COVID vaccine finds high 2-dose, good 1-dose protection", CIDRAP, 24 Şubat 2021, https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/02/real-world-trial-pfizer-covid-vaccine-finds-high-2-dose-good-1-dose, [Accessed: 2 Eylül 2021].
  • Medlock, J. and Galvani, A.P. (2009). Optimizing influenza vaccine distribution, Science, 325(5948), 1705-1708. DOI: 10.1126/science.1175570
  • Oluwatosin Goje, "Why It’s Important to Get Your Second COVID-19 Vaccine Dose", Cleveland Clinic, 4 Mayıs 2021, https://health.clevelandclinic.org/why-its-important-to-get-your-second-covid-19-vaccine-dose/, [Accessed: 2 Eylül 2021].
  • Siegrist, C. A. (2008). Vaccine immunology. Vaccines, 5(1), 17-36.
  • Worldometers.info, “COVID19 Statistics”, Worldometers, 24 Mayıs 2021, Available: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/, [Accessed: 24 Mayıs 2021].
  • WHO, https://covid19.who.int/, 24 Mayıs 2021.
  • Zaria Gorvett, "How effective is a single vaccine dose against Covid-19?", BBC Future, 15 Ocak 2021, Available: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210114-covid-19-how-effective-is-a-single-vaccine-dose, [Accessed: 2 Eylül 2021].
  • Zaric, G.S. and Brandeau, M.L. (2001). Resource allocation for epidemic control over short time horizons, Mathematical Biosciences, 171(1), 33-58. Doi.org/10.1016/S0025-5564(01)00050-5

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Industrial Engineering
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Mustafa DEMİRBİLEK (Primary Author)
Gaziantep Islam Bilim ve Teknoloji Universitesi
0000-0002-1520-2882
Türkiye

Publication Date January 31, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2022, Volume 14, Issue 1

Cite

APA Demirbilek, M. (2022). Tek ve Çift Doz Aşı Uygulamalarının COVID-19 Vaka Sayıları Üzerinden Benzetim Yöntemiyle Karşılaştırılması . International Journal of Engineering Research and Development , 14 (1) , 186-194 . DOI: 10.29137/umagd.999729

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