Lizbon Protokolünden İşgale Giden Süreç: Ukrayna’nın Nükleer Silahsızlanması

Year 2026, Volume: 7 Issue: 1, 288 - 319, 02.03.2026

Elnur İsmayıl

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18814615

https://izlik.org/JA52FA24UC

Abstract

Rusya’nın Ukrayna’yla savaş halinin uzaması, süresinin ve sonucunun öngörülememesi, Ukrayna’nın nükleer silahsızlanma kararları ile ilgili tartışmaları da beraberinde getirmiştir. Bağımsızlığının üzerinden 30 yıldan fazla bir zaman geçse de Ukrayna’nın devlet bütünlüğünün ve güvenliğinin büyük sorunlarla karşı karşıya kalması, nükleer silahsızlanma politikasıyla ilişkilendirilmektedir. Ukrayna topraklarının işgal edilmiş olması ve Ukrayna’nın egemenliğinin Rusya-Batı rekabetinde tartışma konusu olması, Kiev hükümetinin 1990’lı yıllarda aldığı nükleer silahsızlanma kararlarından kaynaklı olduğu iddia edilmektedir. Bu makalenin amacı, Ukrayna’nın bağımsızlığının ilk yıllarında aldığı nükleer silahsızlanma ile ilgili dış politika kararlarını incelemektir. Makalede, Rusya ve ABD’nin 1990’lı yıllarda Kiev hükümetine uyguladıkları baskıların uluslararası sistemde değişen jeopolitik dengeler perspektifinde Ukrayna’nın güvenliğine etkisi ele alınmaktadır. 2014 yılında Kırım’ın işgaliyle başlayan Rusya’nın Ukrayna’yı işgal sürecinin, dönemin Kravçuk hükümetinin nükleer silahsızlanma kararları ile ne kadar ilişkili olabileceği değerlendirilmektedir. Sonuç olarak Budapeşte Memorandumunun günümüzde herhangi bir hükmünün kalmadığı söylenebilir. Rusya’nın askeri müdahalesinin devam ettiği bir zamanda ise Ukrayna’nın nükleer statüsünü yeniden kazanması zor gözükmektedir.

Keywords

Lizbon Protokolü , Budapeşte Memorandumu , Nükleer silahsızlanma , Rusya-Ukrayna savaşı , NSYÖ Antlaşması

The Period from the Lisbon Protocol to the Occupation: Nuclear Disarmament of Ukraine

https://izlik.org/JA52FA24UC

Abstract

The prolongation of Russia’s war with Ukraine and the unpredictability of the duration and outcome of the war has been accompanied by discussions about Ukraine’s nuclear disarmament decisions. Even though more than 30 years have passed since its independence, Ukraine’s statehood and security problems are related to the policy of nuclear disarmament. It is assumed that occupation of Ukraine’s territories and discussions on Ukraine’s sovereignty as a subject of Russia-West competition, due to the Kiev government’s nuclear disarmament decision in the 1990s. The aim of the article is to describe the foreign policy decisions regarding nuclear disarmament taken by Ukraine in the first years of its independence. Additionally, the impact of the pressures exerted by both Russia and the USA on the Kiev government in the 1990s on Ukraine’s security is mentioned in the perspective of changing geopolitical balances in the international system. It is evaluated how Russia’s occupation of Ukraine, which started with the invasion of Crimea in 2014, may be related to the nuclear disarmament decisions of the then Kravchuk government. As a result, it can be said that the Budapest Memorandum has no validity today. At a time when Russia’s military intervention continues, the possibility of Ukraine regaining its nuclear status seems difficult.

Keywords

Lisbon Protocol , Budapest Memorandum , nuclear disarmament , Russia-Ukraine war , NPT Treaty

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