INTELLIGENCE FAILURE AND IDEOLOGICAL FOREIGN POLICY: TURKEY’S POLICY TO OVERTHROW BASHAR AL-ASSAD DURING THE ARAB SPRING

Year 2023, Volume: 4 Issue: 2 - Special edition on Türkiye, 4 - 30, 31.08.2023

Hasan Mesut Önder , Timuçin Kodaman

Abstract

Intelligence is one of the most important tools that enable the decision-maker to
understand the problem or threat while making policy at the state level. However, when the
literature is examined in detail, it is seen that intelligence often fails to adequately warn
decision-makers. It stands before us as a concrete case where intelligence failure has many
dimensions and each dimension affects the failure. There are many studies on the causes of
intelligence failure from analysis and collection. However, there are not enough studies on the
relationship between the ideological foreign policy and intelligence failure and how they
trigger each other. In this study, the framework of ideological foreign policy and intelligence
failure and how these two factors affect each other will be outlined, and in this context,
Turkey’s policy of overthrowing Bashar al Assad during the Arab Spring will be examined.

Keywords

Intelligence failure, Ideological foreign policy, Turkey’s Syria policy, Bashar alAssad, Ahmet Davutoğlu

References

• Akpınar, Pınar (2016), “The limits of mediation in the Arab Spring: the case of Syria”, Third World Quarterly, Cilt 37, Sayı: 12, ss. 2288-2303.
• Allport, Floyd (1955), Theories of Perception and the Concept of Structure, New York: John Wiley & Sons.
• Anadolu Ajansı (2012), “Halk ayaklanması "bir" sloganla başladı”, 14.03.2012, Erişim Tarihi: 21.07.2023, Erişim Adresi: https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/halk-ayaklanmasi-bir-sloganlabasladi/377401.
• Anadolu Ajansı (2020), “Esed'in oligark kuzeni Mahluf ile rejim arasındaki gerginlik sürüyor”, 10.11.2020, Erişim Tarihi:23.07.2023, Erişim Adresi: https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/esedin-oligark-kuzeni-mahluf-ile-rejim-arasindaki-gerginliksuruyor/2039238.
• Arceneaux, Kevin (2012), “Cognitive Biases and the Strength of Political Arguments”, American Journal of Political Science, Cilt 56, Sayı: 2, ss. 271-285.
• Ataie, Mohammad (2015), “Mohammad Nassif: The Shadow Man of the Syria-Iran Axis”, Syria Comment, 16.06.2015, Erişim Tarihi: 23.07.2023, Erişim Adresi: https://www.joshualandis.com/blog/mohammad-nassif-the-shadow-man-of-the-syria-iranaxis-by-mohammad-ataie/.
• Aydıntaşbaş, Aslı (2013), “Esad’ın Problemi Annesi”, Milliyet, 25.05.2023, Erişim Tarihi: 22.07.2023, Erişim Adresi: https://www.milliyet.com.tr/yazarlar/asli-aydintasbas/esad-inproblemi-annesi-1713801.
• Barabandi, Bassam & Thompson, Tyler Jess (2014), “A Friend of My Father: Iran’s Manipulation of Bashar al-Assad”, Atlantic Council, 28.08.2014, Erişim Tarihi: 24.07.2023, Erişim Adresi: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/a-friend-of-my-father-irans-manipulation-of-bashar-al-assad/.
• BBC News Türkçe (2011), “Türkiye Suriye'ye yaptırım uygulamaya başlıyor”, 30.10.2011, Erişim Tarihi: 21.07.2023, Erişim Adresi: https://www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler/2011/11/111130_turkey_syria.
• Betts, Richard K. (1978), “Analysis, War, and Decision: Why Intelligence Failures Are Inevitable”, World Politics, Cilt 31, Sayı: 1, ss. 61-89.
• Bila, Fikret (2012), “Davutoğlu: Esad, Miloseviç olmayı tercih etti”, Milliyet, 26.01.2012, Erişim Tarihi: 22.07.2023, Erişim Adresi: https://www.milliyet.com.tr/yazarlar/fikretbila/davutoglu-esad-milosevic-olmayi-tercih-etti-1493808.
• Cowden, Robert (2014), “OSS Double-Agent Operations in World War II”, Studies in Intelligence, Cilt 58, Sayı: 2, ss. 35-45.
• Davies, Philip H.J. (2004), “Intelligence culture and intelligence failure in Britain and the United States”, Cambridge Review of International Affairs, Cilt 17, Sayı: 3, ss. 495-520.
• De Mesquita, Bruce Bueno (2002), “Domestic Politics and International Relations”, International Studies Quarterly, Cilt 46, Sayı: 1, ss. 1-9.
• Emekli Büyükelçi Ömer Önhon ile 01.08.2023 tarihinde yapılan özel görüşme.
• Erel, Nursun (2022), “AKP’nin eski Dışişleri Bakanı Yaşar Yakış’tan özel değerlendirmeler”, Muhalif, 16.08.2022, Erişim Tarihi: 25.07.2023, Erişim Adresi: https://www.muhalif.com.tr/makale/akpnin-eski-disisleri-bakani-yasar-yakistan-ozeldegerlendirmeler-1565.
• Gentry, John A. (2008), “Intelligence Failure Reframed”, Political Science Quarterly, Cilt 123, Sayı: 2, ss. 247-270.
• Goldstein, Judith & Keohane, Robert O. (1993), “Ideas and Foreign Policy: An Analytical Framework”, içinde (editörler: Judith Goldstein & Robert O. Keohane) Ideas and Foreign Policy: Beliefs, Institutions, and Political Change, Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
• Haass, Richard N. (2014), Yeni Amerika - Dış Politika İçeride Başlar, İstanbul: Tuti Kitap.
• Hamidi, İbrahim (2023), “Erdoğan friend-turned-rival Davutoğlu talks Turkey's post-election Future”, Al Majalla, 21.07.2023, Erişim Tarihi: 25.07.2023, Erişim Adresi: https://en.majalla.com/node/295866/politics/erdo%C4%9Fan-friend-turned-rivaldavuto%C4%9Flu-talks-turkeys-post-election-future.
• Havercroft, Jonathan & Prichard, Alex (2017), “Anarchy and International Relations Theory: A Reconsideration”, Journal of International Political Theory, Cilt 13, Sayı: 3, ss. 252-265.
• Heuer Jr., Richard J. (1981), “Strategic Deception and Counterdeception: A Cognitive Process Approach”, International Studies Quarterly, Cilt 25, Sayı: 2, ss. 294-327.
• Hürriyet (2016), “Obama, CIA'nin Esad'ı devirme planlarını reddetti”, 06.04.2016, Erişim Tarihi: 26.07.2023, Erişim Adresi: https://www.hurriyet.com.tr/dunya/obama-cianin-esadidevirme-planlarini-reddetti-40082228.
• Irwin, Daniel & Mandel, David R. (2019), “Improving information evaluation for intelligence production”, Intelligence and National Security, Cilt 34, Sayı: 4, ss. 503-525.
• Janis, Irving Lester (1972), Victims of Groupthink: A Psychological Study of Foreign-Policy Decisions and Fiascoes, Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company.
• Jervis, Robert (1968), “Hypotheses on Misperception”, World Politics, Cilt 20, Sayı: 3, ss. 454-479.
• Jervis, Robert (1976), Perception and Misperception in International Politics, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
• Jervis, Robert (1989), “Perceiving and Coping with Threat”, içinde (editörler: Robert Jervis & Richard Ned Lebow & Janice Gross Stein) Psychology and Deterrence, Maryland: Johns Hopkins University Press.
• Keohane, Robert O. (1992), “Institutional Theory and the Realist Challenge after the Cold War”, içinde (editör: David. A. Baldwin) Neorealism and Neoliberalism: The Contemporary Debate, New York: Columbia University Press, ss. 3-25.
• Kılınç, Ramazan (2016), “İdeoloji ve Dış Politika: Türkiye’de Kemalist (1930-1939) ve İslamcı (2011-2015) Dış Politikaların Karşılaştırmalı Bir Analizi”, Uluslararası İlişkiler, Cilt 13, Sayı: 52, ss. 67-88.
• Levy, Jack S. (2003), “Political Psychology and Foreign Policy”, içinde (editörler: David O. Sears & Leonie Huddy & Robert Jervis) Oxford Handbook of Political Psychology, New York: Oxford University Press, ss. 253-284.
• Lundborg, Tom (2022), “The politics of intelligence failures: power, rationality, and the intelligence process”, Intelligence and National Security, Cilt 38, Sayı: 5, ss. 726-739.
• Maiolo, Joseph A. (2013), “Deception and Intelligence Failure: Anglo-German Preparations for U-boat Warfare in the 1930s”, Journal of Strategic Studies, Cilt 22, Sayı: 4, ss. 55-76.
• Marrin, Stephen (2004), “Preventing Intelligence Failures by Learning from the Past”, International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence, Cilt 17, Sayı: 4, ss. 655-672.
• Massad, Joseph (1999), “Ideology and Foreign Policy”, Journal of Palestine Studies, Cilt 29, Sayı: 1, ss. 93-95.
• Milliyet (2013), “Suriye’nin 40 yıllık hanedanlığı: Esadlar”, 10.09.2013, Erişim Tarihi: 23.07.2023, Erişim Adresi: https://www.milliyet.com.tr/dunya/suriye-nin-40-yillikhanedanligi-esadlar-1761305.
• Moravcsik, Andrew (1999), “A New Statecraft? Supranational Entrepreneurs and International Cooperation”, International Organization, Cilt 53 Sayı: 2, ss. 267-306.
• NTV (2012), “Davutoğlu Esad'a ömür biçti”, 24.08.2012, Erişim Tarihi: 24.07.2023, Erişim Adresi: https://www.ntv.com.tr/turkiye/davutoglu-esada-omurbicti,Nsez_e7zmEO7uz5O9Pv6hw.
• Oğuzlu, Tarık (2011), “Ortadoğu’da Demokratikleşme ve Türkiye Model Olabilir mi Tartışması: ‘Evet, Ama!’”, Ortadoğu Analiz, Cilt 3, Sayı: 27, ss. 73-79.
• Önder, Hasan Mesut (2018), “SDG Eski Sözcüsü Talal Silo: YPG’ye talimat Kandil’den gelir”, Karar Gazetesi, 28.11.2018, Erişim Tarihi: 27.07.2023, Erişim Adresi: https://www.karar.com/sdg-eski-sozcusu-talal-silo-ypgye-talimat-kandilden-gelir-1043705.
• Önhon, Ömer (2022), Büyükelçinin Gözünden Suriye, İstanbul: Remzi Kitabevi.
• Shlaim, Avi (1976), “Failures in National Intelligence Estimates: The Case of the Yom Kippur War”, World Politics, Cilt 28, Sayı: 3, ss. 348-380.
• Suriye Muhalefeti ve Devrimci Güçler Ulusal Koalisyonu eski Başkanı Halid Hoca ile 27.07.2023 tarihinde yapılan özel görüşme.
• Turner, Marlene E. & Pratkanis, Anthony R. (1998), “Twenty-Five Years of Groupthink Theory and Research: Lessons from the Evaluation of a Theory”, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Cilt 73, Sayı: 2-3, ss. 105-115.
• Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel (1974), “Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases”, American Association for the Advancement of Science, Cilt 185, Sayı: 4157, ss. 1124-1131.
• Vatan (2012), “Suriye, Türk savaş uçağını düşürdü!”, 23.06.2012, Erişim Tarihi: 21.07.2023, Erişim Adresi: https://www.gazetevatan.com/gundem/suriye-turk-savas-ucagini-dusurdu459720.
• Waltz, Kenneth N. (2021), Uluslararası Politika Teorisi, Ankara: Phoenix Yayınevi.
• Wasserman, Benno (1960), “The Failure of Intelligence Prediction”, Political Studies, Cilt 8, Sayı: 2, ss. 156-169.
• Whaley, Barton S. (1973), Codeword Barbarossa, Cambridge: MIT Press.
• Whitesmith, Martha (2020), Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis Testing the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method, Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press.
• Wish, Naomi Bailin (1980), “Foreign Policy Makers and Their National Role Conceptions”, International Studies Quarterly, Cilt 24, Sayı: 4, ss. 532-554.
• Wu, Zhengyu (2018), “Classical Geopolitics, Realism and the Balance of Power Theory”, Journal of Strategic Studies, Cilt 41, Sayı: 6, ss. 786-823.
• Young, Alex (2013), “Too Much Information Ineffective Intelligence Collection”, Harvard International Review, Cilt 35, Sayı: 1, ss. 24-27.
• Yuan, Teh Yong (2019), “The Spies in Numbers 13 as a Research Process”, Journal of Christian Ministry, Cilt 8, Sayı: 1, ss. 1-18.