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TÜKETİCİ GÜVEN ENDEKSİ VE TÜRKİYE’DE SEÇİMLER

Year 2020, Issue: 4, 888 - 906, 22.12.2020
https://doi.org/10.47994/usbad.787598

Abstract

Tüketici güven endeksi (TGE) gelişmiş ülkelerde uzun bir geçmişe sahip ve hemen her ülkede üretilen önemli bir veridir. Ülkemizde de bu endeks Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TUİK) tarafından 2003 yılı aralık ayından bu yana derlenen tüketici eğilim anketi verilerinden aylık olarak hesaplanıp, yayımlanmaktadır. Bu çalışma ile endeksin aylık değerleri ile Türkiye’de 2003 yılından sonra yapılan milletvekili seçimleri, yerel seçimlerde il genel meclisine üye seçimi, halk oylamaları ve cumhurbaşkanı seçimlerinde iktidar partisinin oyları arasında bir korelasyonun olup olmadığının araştırılması amaçlanmıştır. Türkiye’de tüketici güven endeksi ile seçimler arasındaki ilişki bugüne kadar incelenmemiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, seçimlerde iktidar partisinin aldığı oy oranları ile endeks değerleri arasında çok güçlü bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir.

Supporting Institution

Hiç bir kurumdan destek almadım.

Project Number

-

Thanks

Makalemin yayımlanması sırasında ücret almadığınız için teşekkür ederim.

References

  • Akhmedov, A., Zhuravskaya, E. (2004) Opportunistic Political Cycles: Test in a Young Democracy Setting. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119 (4): 1301-1338.
  • Avrupa Komisyonu (2020) Tüketici eğilim istatistikleri aylık soru formu,https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/questionnaires_tr_cons_tr.pdf, ET. :12.08.2020.
  • Caleiro, A., Difonsio, A. and Ramalho, E. A. (2011). Explaining consumer confidence in Portugal. Journal of Economic Psychology, 32, pp. 25-35.
  • De Boef, S. and Kellstedt, P. M. (2004). The political (and economic) origins of consumer confidence, American Journal of Political Science, 48(4), pp. 633-649.
  • Fransa Ulusal İstatistik ve Ekonomik Çalışmalar Enstitüsü (INSEE) (2017), Purchasing Power Slows Down, While The Outlook Remains Positive,https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/2662664?sommaire=2662688&q=Electoral+periods+have+a+positive+albeit+short-lived+effect+on+household +confidence, ET. :08.08.2020
  • Frey, B., Schenider, F. (1978) An Empirical Study of Politico Economic Interaction in the United States. Review of Economics & Statistics, Vol 60: 174-183.
  • Mačkić V., Sorić P., Lolić I. (2017) Competitiveness, consumer confidence and election outcomes, Efzg Working Paper Series, No. 17-04 Zagreb, Croatia.
  • Marc B., Reuter A. (2018) “The Effect of Elections on Consumer Confidence in Europe”, European Commission – Discussion Paper 90.
  • Suzuki M. (1992) Political Business Cycles in the Public Mind, The American Political Science Review, Dec., 1992, Vol. 86, No. 4 (Dec., 1992), pp. 989-996
  • The Conference Board (2011) Consumer Confidence Index, https://conference-board.org/pdf_free/press/TechnicalPDF_4134_ 1298367128.pdf, ET. :11.08.2020
  • Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (2020) Tüketici güven endeksi metaverisi http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1104, ET. :12.08.2020
  • Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (2020) http://www.tuik.gov.tr/ PreHaberBultenleri.do?id=33907, ET.:12.08.2020
  • University of Michigan (2020) Surveys of Consumers https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=24774, ET. :14.08.2020
  • Yun L. (2011) Consumer Confidence And Election Results, The National Association Of Realtors,https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/ economists-outlook/consumer-confidence-and-election-results, ET. :12.08.2020

THE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX AND ELECTIONS IN TURKEY

Year 2020, Issue: 4, 888 - 906, 22.12.2020
https://doi.org/10.47994/usbad.787598

Abstract

Consumer confidence index (CCI) is an important data that has a long history in developed countries and is produced in almost every country. In our country, this index is published as calculated from data of consumer tendency survey by Turkey Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) since December 2003. With this study, it is aimed to investigate whether there is a correlation between the monthly values of the index calculated in Turkey since 2003 and done in Turkey the votes of the ruling party in the parliamentary elections, the election of members to the provincial assembly in local elections, the plebiscites and the presidential elections. The relationship between the consumer confidence index and the elections in Turkey has not been studied so far. The findings obtained show that there is a very strong relationship between the voting rates of the ruling party and monthly index values.

Project Number

-

References

  • Akhmedov, A., Zhuravskaya, E. (2004) Opportunistic Political Cycles: Test in a Young Democracy Setting. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119 (4): 1301-1338.
  • Avrupa Komisyonu (2020) Tüketici eğilim istatistikleri aylık soru formu,https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/questionnaires_tr_cons_tr.pdf, ET. :12.08.2020.
  • Caleiro, A., Difonsio, A. and Ramalho, E. A. (2011). Explaining consumer confidence in Portugal. Journal of Economic Psychology, 32, pp. 25-35.
  • De Boef, S. and Kellstedt, P. M. (2004). The political (and economic) origins of consumer confidence, American Journal of Political Science, 48(4), pp. 633-649.
  • Fransa Ulusal İstatistik ve Ekonomik Çalışmalar Enstitüsü (INSEE) (2017), Purchasing Power Slows Down, While The Outlook Remains Positive,https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/2662664?sommaire=2662688&q=Electoral+periods+have+a+positive+albeit+short-lived+effect+on+household +confidence, ET. :08.08.2020
  • Frey, B., Schenider, F. (1978) An Empirical Study of Politico Economic Interaction in the United States. Review of Economics & Statistics, Vol 60: 174-183.
  • Mačkić V., Sorić P., Lolić I. (2017) Competitiveness, consumer confidence and election outcomes, Efzg Working Paper Series, No. 17-04 Zagreb, Croatia.
  • Marc B., Reuter A. (2018) “The Effect of Elections on Consumer Confidence in Europe”, European Commission – Discussion Paper 90.
  • Suzuki M. (1992) Political Business Cycles in the Public Mind, The American Political Science Review, Dec., 1992, Vol. 86, No. 4 (Dec., 1992), pp. 989-996
  • The Conference Board (2011) Consumer Confidence Index, https://conference-board.org/pdf_free/press/TechnicalPDF_4134_ 1298367128.pdf, ET. :11.08.2020
  • Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (2020) Tüketici güven endeksi metaverisi http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1104, ET. :12.08.2020
  • Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (2020) http://www.tuik.gov.tr/ PreHaberBultenleri.do?id=33907, ET.:12.08.2020
  • University of Michigan (2020) Surveys of Consumers https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=24774, ET. :14.08.2020
  • Yun L. (2011) Consumer Confidence And Election Results, The National Association Of Realtors,https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/ economists-outlook/consumer-confidence-and-election-results, ET. :12.08.2020
There are 14 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Rıdvan Yaka 0000-0003-0662-452X

Project Number -
Publication Date December 22, 2020
Acceptance Date December 2, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020 Issue: 4

Cite

APA Yaka, R. (2020). TÜKETİCİ GÜVEN ENDEKSİ VE TÜRKİYE’DE SEÇİMLER. Uluslararası Sosyal Bilimler Akademi Dergisi(4), 888-906. https://doi.org/10.47994/usbad.787598

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