Sera gazı emisyonlarının sektörlere göre dağılımına ilişkin gelecek tahmini ve ekonomik perspektif

Öz

Çeşitli politikalar, sera gazı (GHG) emisyonlarını azaltmayı, farklı sektörlere belirli sınırlamalar getirmeyi ve çevreyi ve ekonomiyi etkilemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Ancak hızla sanayileşen bölgelerde fosil temelli enerji sistemleri sürekli olarak gelişmektedir. Maliyetler ile sürdürülebilirliğin uzun vadeli faydalarını dengelemek, sera gazı emisyonlarının Türkiye'deki sektörler arasındaki dağılımını ekonomik bir perspektiften ele almanın anahtarıdır. Bu çalışma, Türkiye'de sera gazı emisyonlarının sektörlere göre dağılımına ilişkin geleceğe yönelik bir tahmin ve ekonomik perspektif sunmayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaca bağlı olarak toplanan verilerin analizinde Econometric Views (EViews) 12 yazılımı kullanılmıştır. Gelecekteki değerleri tahmin etmek için Otoregresif Entegre Hareketli Ortalama (ARIMA) modeli kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada sera gazı emisyonlarının 2026 yılında 2022 yılına göre %5,5 oranında artacağı öngörülüyor. Enerji sektörü emisyonlarda en yüksek paya sahip olmaya devam ederken, en önemli artışı da tarım sektörü yaşayacaktır. Ayrıca, endüstriyel süreçlerden ve ürün kullanımından kaynaklanan emisyonların artması, atıklardan kaynaklanan emisyonların ise 2022 ile 2026 arasında azalması beklenmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• ARIMA
• Ekonomik İyileştirme
• Gelecek Tahmini
• Sera Gazı Emisyonu
• Karbon Emisyonunu Azaltın.

Future forecast and economic perspective of the distribution of greenhouse gas emissions by sectors

Öz

Various policies aim to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, placing specific limits on different sectors, and impacting the environment and the economy. However, fossil-based energy systems are continuously developing in rapidly industrializing regions. Balancing the immediate costs of transitioning with the long-term benefits of sustainability is key in addressing the distribution of GHG emissions across sectors in Turkey from an economic perspective. This study aims to provide a future forecast and economic perspective on the distribution of GHG emissions by sectors in Turkey. Depending on this purpose, Econometric Views (EViews) 12 software was used to analyze the collected data. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model has been used to predict future values. The study predicts that greenhouse gas emissions will increase by 5.5% in 2026 compared to 2022. The energy sector will continue to have the highest share of emissions, while the agricultural sector will experience the most significant increase. Additionally, emissions from industrial processes and product use are expected to rise, while emissions from waste are expected to decrease between 2022 and 2026.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• ARIMA
• Economic Improvement
• Future Forecast
• GHG Emission
• Reduce Carbon Emission.

Kaynakça

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