İyonküre Bozulmaları: 2023 Kahramanmaraş Depremleri Öncesinde ve Sırasında Etki, Tespit ve Değişkenlik

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye genelindeki 15 TUSAGA-Aktif (Türkiye Ulusal Temel GNSS Ağı-Aktif) istasyonundan elde edilen Toplam Elektron İçeriği (TEİ) kestirimleri kullanılarak, 06 Şubat 2023'teki yıkıcı Kahramanmaraş depremleri (Mw 7,8 ve Mw 7,5) öncesi ve sırasındaki iyonküre bozulmaları incelenmiştir. TEİ verilerindeki zamansal değişimleri analiz ederek sismik öncesi iyonküre aykırılıklarını tespit etmek ve nicellemek için TEİ’nin Diferansiyel Oranı (DROT) algoritması uygulanmıştır. Sonuçlar, iyonküre bozulmalarında önemli mekânsal ve zamansal örüntüler ortaya koymuştur; DROT değerleri depremlerden önceki 48-72 saat içinde %50-60'tan %60-70'e doğru kademeli olarak artmıştır. Deprem merkezlerine en yakın istasyonlar, özellikle ELAZ, ERGN ve HAT2, belirgin anomaliler sergilerken, coğrafi olarak dağılmış istasyonlarda eşzamanlı olarak bozulmaların ortaya çıktığı gözlemlenmiştir. Jeomanyetik ve sismik dönemin sakin referans dönemle karşılaştırması, bu bozulmaların sismik kökenini sunarak potansiyel Litosfer-Atmosfer-İyonküre Bağlaşımı hipotezini desteklemektedir. Bulgularımız, TEİ değişimlerinin DROT tabanlı analizinin, sismik-iyonküresel etkileşimler hakkında önemli bulgular sağladığını ve deprem öncüsü çalışmalarını ve erken uyarı yeteneklerini geliştirme potansiyeli taşıdığını göstermektedir.

Keywords

• İyonküre Bozulmaları
• Toplam Elektron İçeriği
• DROT
• Kahramanmaraş Depremleri
• Sismik Öncüller
• GNSS

IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES: IMPACT, DETECTION AND VARIABILITY BEFORE AND DURING 2023 KAHRAMANMARAŞ EARTHQUAKES

Abstract

This study investigates ionospheric disturbances before and during the devastating February 6, 2023, Kahramanmaraş earthquakes (Mw 7.8 and Mw 7.5) using Total Electron Content (TEC) estimates from 15 TNPGN-Active (Turkish National Permanent GNSS Network-Active) stations across Türkiye. The Differential Rate of TEC (DROT) algorithm is applied to detect and quantify pre-seismic ionospheric anomalies by analyzing temporal variations in TEC data. Results reveal significant spatial and temporal patterns in ionospheric disturbances with DROT values progressively increasing from 50-60% to 60-70% within 48-72 hours preceding the earthquakes. Stations closest to the epicenter, particularly ELAZ, ERGN and HAT2, exhibited pronounced anomalies, while a concurrent appearance of disturbances across geographically dispersed stations is observed. Comparison with geomagnetically and seismically quiet reference periods suggests the seismic origin of these disturbances, supporting potential Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling hypothesis. Our findings demonstrate that DROT-based analysis of TEC variations provides valuable insights into seismic-ionospheric interactions and holds potential for enhancing earthquake precursor studies and early warning capabilities. 

Keywords

• Ionospheric Disturbances
• Total Electron Content
• DROT
• Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes
• Seismic Precursors
• GNSS

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