The Impact of R&D Expenditures on Economic Growth in Türkiye: New Evidence from Machine Learning Method

Year 2024, PRODUCTIVITY FOR INNOVATION, 107 - 118, 15.01.2024

Yasin Acar İbrahim Kesici

https://doi.org/10.51551/verimlilik.1344757

Abstract

Purpose: This study analyzes the impacts of R&D expenditures on economic growth in Türkiye.
Methodology: In this study, we explore the impact of R&D expenditure on economic growth in Türkiye. Annual time series from 1990 to 2021 are considered for this research examination based on the data availability. R&D expenditure, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, gross fixed capital formation, labor force, and tertiary ratio variables are used for the analysis and obtained from the World Bank. Based on machine learning, analyses were conducted using the Kernel Regularized Least Square method.
Findings: The empirical analysis using KRLS shows that higher spending on research and development leads to a significant boost in economic growth. Furthermore, labor force participation, school enrolment (tertiary) ratio, and gross fixed capital formation are all significantly and positively associated with economic growth in Türkiye.
Originality: The contribution of the paper is twofold: (1) it provides new scientific evidence based on the machine learning econometric method, the Kernel Regularized Least Square (KRLS); (2) many papers in the literature have only examined the relationship between R&D expenditures and economic growth, without controlling for other variables. We have used possible control variables such as labor force participation rate, school enrolment (tertiary) ratio, and gross fixed capital formation, which are also linked to economic growth models.

Keywords

Productivity, KRLS method, Research and Development, Economic Growth, Innovation

Türkiye'de Ar-Ge Harcamalarının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: Makine Öğrenmesi Yönteminden Yeni Kanıtlar

Abstract

Amaç: Bu çalışma, Türkiye'de Ar-Ge harcamalarının ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerini analiz etmektedir.
Yöntem: Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'de Ar-Ge harcamalarının ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi araştırılmaktadır. Veri mevcudiyetine bağlı olarak bu araştırmada 1990'dan 2021'e kadar olan yıllık zaman serileri kullanılmıştır. Ar-Ge harcaması, kişi başına Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla (GSYH), gayri safi sabit sermaye oluşumu, işgücü ve okula kayıt (yükseköğretim) oranı değişkenleri Dünya Bankası'ndan temin edilmiştir. Makine öğrenimine dayalı olarak, analizler Kernel Düzenlenmiş En Küçük Kare yöntemi kullanılarak gerçekleştirilmiştir.
Bulgular: KRLS kullanılarak yapılan ampirik analiz, araştırma ve geliştirmeye yapılan daha yüksek harcamaların ekonomik büyümede önemli bir artışa yol açtığını göstermektedir. Ayrıca, işgücüne katılım, okula kayıt (yükseköğretim) oranı ve gayrisafi sabit sermaye oluşumu Türkiye'deki ekonomik büyüme ile anlamlı ve pozitif bir şekilde ilişkilidir.
Özgünlük: Bu makalenin katkısı iki yönlüdür: (1) makine öğrenimi ekonometrik yöntemi olan Kernel Düzenlenmiş En Küçük Kare (KRLS) yöntemine dayalı yeni bilimsel kanıtlar sunmaktadır; (2) literatürdeki birçok makale, diğer değişkenleri kontrol etmeden sadece Ar-Ge harcamaları ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemiştir. Bu çalışmada, ekonomik büyüme modelleriyle bağlantılı olan işgücüne katılım oranı, okullaşma (yükseköğretim) oranı ve gayrisafi sabit sermaye oluşumu gibi olası kontrol değişkenleri de analizde kullanılmıştır.

Keywords

Verimlilik, KRLS yöntemi, Araştırma ve Geliştirme, Ekonomik Büyüme, İnovasyon

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