KOBİ Büyümesinden Kaynaklanan Potansiyel Verimlilik Kazançlarının Modellenmesi: Türk İmalat Sanayii İçin Bir Monte Carlo Simülasyonu

Year 2025, Volume: 59 Issue: 3, 589 - 608, 21.07.2025

Fatih Cemil Özbuğday

https://doi.org/10.51551/verimlilik.1688156

Abstract

Amaç: Bu çalışma, Türkiye imalat sanayiinde faaliyet gösteren küçük ve orta büyüklükteki işletmelerin (KOBİ), mikro ölçekten küçük ölçeğe ve küçük ölçekten orta ölçeğe geçiş yapmaları halinde elde edebilecekleri işgücü verimliliği kazanımlarını tahmin etmeyi amaçlamaktadır.
Yöntem: TÜİK’in çalışan başına katma değer verileri kullanılarak, teknolojik düzey sabit tutulurken firma ölçeğinin değiştiği Monte Carlo simülasyonları gerçekleştirilmiştir. Sınıf içi heterojenliği temsil etmek üzere log-normal ve gamma şok süreçleri; 0,5, 1,0 ve 2,0 olmak üzere üç farklı değişim katsayısıyla birleştirilmiştir.
Bulgular: Yüksek teknoloji düzeyindeki KOBİ’ler, özellikle küçükten orta ölçeğe geçişte, ortalama 260–370 bin TL arasında değişen en yüksek verimlilik artışlarını sağlamaktadır. Düşük teknoloji firmaları ise daha sınırlı ortalama artışlar göstermekte; heterojenlik düzeyi arttıkça olumsuz sonuçlarla karşılaşma olasılığı da yükselmektedir. Log-normal şoklar daha kalın üst kuyruklara ve aşırı yüksek performans gösteren firmalara yol açarken, gamma şokları daha dar merkezi dağılımlar üretmekte; ancak yüksek saçılma düzeylerinde yine de dikkate değer aykırı değerlere rastlanmaktadır.
Özgünlük: Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de KOBİ’lerin ölçek büyütmesinden doğabilecek potansiyel verimlilik kazanımlarını tamamen stokastik bir çerçevede niceliksel olarak ortaya koyan ilk çalışmalardan biridir. Teknolojiye bağlı heterojenliği toplulaştırılmış veriyle modelleyerek, koşullu teşvikler ve hedefe yönelik sanayi politikaları için yeni ve özgün bir kanıta dayalı yaklaşım sunmaktadır.

Keywords

KOBİ’ler , İşgücü Verimliliği , Ölçek Ekonomileri , Monte Carlo Simülasyonu , Teknoloji Yoğunluğu , İmalat Sanayi

Modeling Potential Productivity Gains from SME Growth: A Monte Carlo Simulation for Turkish Manufacturing Firms

Abstract

Purpose: The paper estimates the labor-productivity gains that Turkish manufacturing small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) can expect when they scale up from micro to small and from small to medium size classes.
Methodology: Using value-added-per-employee data from TurkStat, we run Monte Carlo simulations that keep the technological tier constant while varying firm size. Log-normal and gamma shock processes are combined with three coefficients of variation (0.5, 1.0, 2.0) to represent alternative degrees of within-class heterogeneity.
Findings: High-technology SMEs realize the highest average gains—around TL 260–370 thousand—especially in the small-to-medium transition. Low-technology firms show modest mean improvements and a rising probability of negative outcomes as heterogeneity increases. Log-normal shocks generate fatter upper tails and more extreme winners, whereas gamma shocks deliver narrower central ranges but still sizable outliers at high dispersion.
Originality: This is among the first studies to quantify potential productivity pay-offs from SME scaling in Turkey within a fully stochastic framework. By modeling technology-conditioned heterogeneity with aggregate data, it offers fresh evidence for designing conditional subsidies and other targeted industrial-policy tools.

Keywords

SMEs , Labor Productivity , Economies of Scale , Monte Carlo Simulation , Technology Intensity , Manufacturing Industry

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