Determinants of Smuggling: Application of Structural Equation Model on European and Central Asian Countries

Year 2021, , 272 - 285, 20.02.2021

Hande Aksöz Yılmaz

https://doi.org/10.21076/vizyoner.719806

Abstract

Smuggling is done for avoiding taxation through escaping some certain duties in the foreign trade of goods and by-passing border controls. The liberalization of foreign trade without constructing institutional efficiency creates new opportunities for illegal traders. While there are many theoretical studies based on the determinants of smuggling in the literature, studies with applied analyzes are limited. In the study, unlike other studies, smuggling is investigated around the findings obtained from the MIMIC model, which is a special type of Structural Equation Model (SEM). The purpose of the study is to analyze the causes and indicators of smuggling based on 2015 data of selected variables from 52 countries in European and Central Asian in the geographic country classification of World Bank. As a result of the study, the most important determinants of smuggling in European and Central Asian countries are the rule of law, globalization and GDP per capita. For Turkey, the most important determinants of smuggling are found to be cost of imports, trade, tariffs, rule of law, globalization and GDP per capita.

Keywords

Smuggling, Foreign Trade, Import Costs, Informal Trade, Tax Evasion

Kaçakçılığın Belirleyicileri: Avrupa ve Orta Asya Ülkeleri Üzerine Yapısal Eşitlik Modeli Uygulaması

Abstract

Kaçakçılık, malların dış ticaretindeki belli başlı bazı yükümlülüklerden kaçmak ve / veya sınır kontrollerinden kurtulmak için vergilendirmeden kaçınma faaliyetidir. Kurumsal etkinlik sağlanmadan dış ticarette serbestleşmenin gerçekleştirilmesi, kaçak ticaret yapanlara yeni fırsatlar doğurmaktadır. Kaçakçılığın belirleyicileri konusunda literatürde çok sayıda teorik incelemeye dayalı çalışma yer alırken; uygulamalı analizlerin yer aldığı çalışmalar sınırlı sayıdadır. Bu çalışmada kaçakçılık, diğer çalışmalardan farklı olarak, Yapısal Eşitlik Modelinin özel bir çeşidi olan MIMIC modelinden elde edilen bulgular etrafında incelenmiştir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Dünya Bankası’nın coğrafi ülke sınıflandırmasında Avrupa ve Orta Asya'da yer alan 52 ülkeye ait seçilmiş değişkenlerin 2015 yılına ilişkin verilerinden yola çıkarak, kaçakçılığın nedenlerini ve göstergelerini analiz etmektir. Bu çalışma sonucunda, Avrupa ve Orta Asya ülkelerinde kaçakçılığın en önemli belirleyicilerinin hukuk düzeni, küreselleşme ve kişi başına GSMH olduğu iken; Türkiye'de ithalat maliyetleri, ticaretin GSMH içerisindeki payı, tarife oranları, hukuk düzeni, küreselleşme ve kişi başına GSMH olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. 

Keywords

Kaçakçılık, Dış Ticaret, İthalat Maliyetleri, Kayıtdışı Ticaret, Vergi Kaçırmak

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