YÜKSEK-ORTA GELİRLİ ÜLKELERDE TURİZM VE GSYİH ARASINDAKİ BOOTSTRAP NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Year 2020, , 80 - 89, 20.12.2020

Mustafa Koçoğlu , Bayram Veli Doyar

https://doi.org/10.21076/vizyoner.722021

Abstract

Ülkelerin gelirlerini artıran kaynaklardan biri de turizmdir. Birçok çalışma çeşitli ülkelerde ve ülke gruplarında GSYİH ile turizm arasında nedensel ilişkiler olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu çerçevede, mevcut çalışmanın amacı üst-orta gelir grubundaki 33 ülke için turizm ve GSYİH arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini incelemektir. Bu amaca yönelik olarak 1995-2018 dönemini kapsayan yıllık verilere Emirmahmutoğlu ve Köse (2011) tarafından önerilen bootstrap nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Bu test hem yatay kesit bağımlılığı ve bağımsızlığı durumlarında, hem de gözlem sayısı düşükken uygulanabilen güçlü bir testtir. Sonuçlar Grenada ve Güney Afrika için turizmden GSYİH’ye tek yönlü bir nedensellik; Arnavutluk, Bulgaristan, Dominik Cumhuriyeti, Ekvador, Jamaika, Peru ve Sri Lanka için GSYİH’den turizme tek yönlü bir nedensellik; Ermenistan, Mauritius ve Kuzey Makedonya için turizm ve GSYİH arasında çift yönlü nedensellik olduğunu; ancak geriye kalan 21 ülke için nedenselliğin olmadığını göstermiştir.

Keywords

Turizm, GSYİH, Üst-Orta Gelirli Ülkeler, Bootstrap Nedensellik

BOOTSTRAP PANEL CAUSALITY TESTING OF TOURISM AND GDP NEXUS FOR UPPER-MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES

Abstract

One of the sources that increases the income of the countries is tourism. Many studies show that there are causal associations between GDP and tourism in various countries and country groups. In this respect, the purpose of current paper is to explore the causal relationship between tourism and GDP in 33 upper-middle income countries. Therefore, bootstrap panel causality test of Emirmahmutoğlu and Köse (2011) to annual data from 1995 to 2018. This test is powerful both under cross-section dependency and independency, also when the number of observations is small. The findings reveal that a unidirectional causality from tourism to GDP for Grenada and South Africa; a unidirectional causality from tourism to GDP in Albania, Bulgaria, Dominic Republic, Ecuador, Jamaica, Peru and Sri Lanka; bidirectional causality between tourism and GDP in Armenia, Mauritius and North Macedonia; and no causality for remaining 21 countries.

Keywords

Tourism, GDP, Upper-Middle Income Countries, Bootstrap Causality

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