Energy Supply Security Index: An Analysis for Turkish Economy

Abstract

Energy consumption in Turkish economy has been rising continuously and composition of energy mix will be substantially changed in forthcoming periods due to environmental concerns and economic sustainability. On the other hand, energy shortage expected to increase because of accelerating economic activities and increase in population. In addition, structure of energy markets and demand/supply balance in Turkey are closely related with financial stability (current account deficit). Therefore, there is need to balance between energy consumption-economic growth and environment duality in energy policy. Conversely, any disruptions in energy supply will lead to destabilize economy, interruption in output and suspend social life in the long term. Accordingly, rising and ennsuring energy security would be helpful for Turkish economy. In this frame we assesed energy security in line with Cabalu (2010) on the basis of energy intensity, import dependency, domestic production and geopolitical risk indicators. Lastly, we derived a composite security index from them. Results showed that Turkey is vulnerable in terms of fossil fuels due to insufficient domestic production and huge share in the national energy mix. On that note, policy makers can target possible sources of supply disruptions and mitigate their effects by taking measures against risks in energy security.

Keywords

• Energy Security Index
• Energy Mix
• Energy Policy

Enerji Arz Güvenliği Endeksi: Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Bir Analiz

Abstract

Türkiye ekonomisinde enerji tüketimi sürekli artmaya devam etmekte ve enerji karmasının, çevresel endişeler ve sürdürülebilir büyüme yüzünden önemli derecede değişmesi beklenmektedir. Diğer yandan artan ekonomik faaliyetler ve nüfus artışı ekonominin enerji açığını artırmaktadır. Ayrıca Türkiye’deki enerji piyasalarının yapısının ve arz/talep dengesizliklerinin finansal istikrar ve ekonomik sürdürülebilirlik ile olan yakın ilişkisi unutulmamalıdır. Bu yüzden büyüme ve çevre ikilemindeki denge mutlaka sağlanmalıdır. Aksine enerji arzında yaşanabilecek problemler uzun vadede, ekonomide istikrarsızlık yaratacak, toplam çıktıda kesintiler ve günlük hayatta aksamalar görülebilecektir. Bu yüzden Türkiye ekonomisi için enerji güvenliğini sağlamak ve artırmak faydalı olacaktır. Bu çerçevede enerji güvenliği Cabalu (2010) çalışmasındakine uygun şekilde değerlendirilmiş ve enerji arz güvenliği için enerji yoğunluğu, ithal bağımlılığı, yerli üretim ve jeopolitik risk göstergeleri kullanılmıştır. Son olarak bu dört gösterge bağlamında Türkiye ekonomisi için kompozit risk endeks hesaplanmıştır. Sonuçlara göre fosil tabanlı yakıtların enerji karması içindeki yüksek payı ve yetersiz yerli üretim kırılganlığı artırmaktadır. Bu bağlamda karar vericiler bu doğrultuda enerji güvenliğini artıcı önlemler alarak arz kesintileri karşısında doğabilecek olumsuz sonuçları hafifletebilirler. 

Keywords

• Enerji Güvenliği Endeksi
• Enerji Karması
• Enerji Politikası

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