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İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİ: YAĞIŞLARIN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ

Year 2020, Volume: 11 Issue: 28, 665 - 679, 30.09.2020
https://doi.org/10.21076/vizyoner.693363

Abstract

Yağış miktarındaki değişimin gelişmemiş veya tarıma bağımlı ülkelerde daha güçlü olduğu ve sanayi ekonomileri için daha az etkili olduğu görülmüştür. Türkiye, büyüyen hizmet ekonomisine sahip yeni sanayileşmiş bir ülke olduğundan, dünya ulusları arasında yükselen bir ekonomi olarak sınıflandırılmaktadır. Ancak, tarım endüstrisi özellikle istihdam düzeyinde ekonomide önemli bir rol oynamaktadır. Bu makalenin amacı kuraklığın tarım sektörü üzerindeki ekonomik sonuçları ve bunun dolaylı olarak genel ekonomi üzerindeki etkisi incelenmiştir. İncelenen dönem boyunca yağış ve tarımsal sanayi arasında pozitif bir korelasyonun olduğu görülmektedir. Tarım sektöründeki büyüme, genel ekonomik büyüme ile yüksek derecede korelasyona sahip olduğu ve yine ülkedeki yağış trendi ile genel ekonomik büyüme arasında bir ilişkinin olduğu bulunmuştur. Türkiye’de kuraklığın egemen olduğu yıllarda ekonomik krizlerin bu dönemleri izlediği gözlemlenmiştir. Yağışın yanı sıra, bir başka değişken olan sıcaklık verisi de analize konu edilmiştir. Yağışların aksine, sıcaklığın tarımsal üretim üzerinde bir etkisi bulunmamıştır. İstatistikî rakamlar, tarım endüstrisinin tüm ekonominin küçük bir kısmını içermekte olduğunu gösterse de, makalenin sonuçlarına göre Türkiye'de yağış miktarının ekonomik büyüme üzerinde düşünüldüğünden daha fazla etkisi olduğunu göstermektedir.

References

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  • Barrios, S., Bertinelli, L. and Strobl, E. (2010). Trends in rainfall and economic growth in Africa: A neglected cause of the African growth tragedy. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 92(2), 350-366.
  • Batten, S., Sowerbutts, R. and Tanaka, M. (2019). Climate change: Macroeconomic impact and implications for monetary policy. (Fortcoming in: Ecological, Societal, and Technological Risks and Financial Sector).
  • Bayrac, H. N. and Dogan, E. (2016). Impacts of climate change on agriculture sector in Turkey. Eskisehir Osmangazi Universitesi IIBF Dergisi, 11(1), 23-48.
  • Bond, S., Leblebicioglu, A. and Schiantarelli, F. (2007). Capital accumulation and growth: a new look at the empirical evidence. Boston College Working Papers in Economics, 591, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 02 Aug 2007.
  • Borgomeo, E., Vadheim, B., Woldeyes, F. B., Alamirew, T., Tamru, S., Charles, K. J., Kebede, S. and Walker, O. (2018). The distributional and multi-sectoral impacts of rainfall shocks: Evidence from computable general equilibrium modelling for the Awash Basin, Ethiopia. Ecological Economics, 146, 621-632.
  • Bugra, A. (2010). Toplumsal cinsiyet, işgücü piyasaları ve refah rejimleri: Türkiye’de kadın istihdamı. TÜBİTAK Project No: 108K524. Access address: https://spf.boun.edu.tr/sites/spf.boun.edu.tr/files/1439799128_aysebugra_kadinistihdami_tubitak_0.pdf, (20 Feb 2018).
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  • Dell, M., Jones, B. F. and Olken, B. (2012). Temperature shocks and economic growth: Evidence from the last half century. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics. 4(3), 66-95.
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  • Global Economic Prospect. (2013). South Asia Annex. Access address: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPROSPECTS/Resources/334934-1322593305595/8287139-1358278153255/GEP13aSARRegionalAnnex.pdf, (02 May 2018).
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  • Kapluhan, E. (2013). Drought and drought in Turkey effect of agriculture. Marmara Cografya Dergisi, (7), 487-510.
  • Mackinnon, J. G. (1991). Critical Values for cointegration tests. R. F. Engle and C. W. J. Granger (Ed.), Long-run economic relationship: Readings in cointegration, Oxford University Press, New York.
  • Mani, M., Bandyopadhyay, S., Chonabayashi, S., Markandya, A. and Mosier, T. (2018). South Asia's Hotspots: Impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on living standards. South Asia Development Matters; Washington, DC: World Bank. © World Bank. Access address: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/28723 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO, (20 Feb 2018).
  • Mansouri, B. (2004). Impact of drought and fiscal policy on private consumption, private investment and economic growth in Morocco: An empirical analysis. In Workshop on ‘The Prospects of Arab Economic Cooperation to Boost Savings and Investment’, Alexandria, Egypt, June 22-24, 2004.
  • Masters, W. A. and Wiebe, K. D. (2000). Climate and Agricultural Productivity. Center for International Development, 617(496), 7100.
  • Parker, J. (2018). Theory and practice of econometrics at reed college. Access address: http://www.reed.edu/economics/parker/312/tschapters/S13 Ch 3.pdf, (15 Jun 2018).
  • Rodrik, D., Subramanian, A. and Trebbi, F. (2004). Institutions rule: the primacy of institutions over geography and integration in economic development. Journal of Economic Growth, 9(2), 131-165.
  • Rosenzweig, C., Tubiello, F. N., Goldberg, R., Mills, E. and Bloomfield, J. (2002). Increased crop damage in the US from excess precipitation under climate change. Global Environ Change 12, 197-202.
  • Salami, H., Shahnooshi, N. and Thomson, K. J. (2009). The economic impacts of drought on the economy of Iran: An integration of linear programming and macroeconometric modelling approaches. Ecological Economics, 68(4), 1032-1039.
  • Sarı, R., Hammoudeh, S. and Ewing, B. T. (2007). Dynamic relationships between oil and metal commodity futures prices. Geopolitics of Energy, 29(17).
  • Turkes, M. (2012). Observed and projected climate change, drought and desertification in Turkey. Ankara Universitesi Cevre Bilimleri Dergisi, 4(2), 1-32 (2012)
  • Turkish State Meteorological Service. (2019). Access address: https://mgm.gov.tr, (5 May 2019).
  • Turkish Statistical Institute. (2019). Access address: http://www.turkstat.gov.tr, (5 May 2019).

CLIMATIC CHANGE: THE EFFECT OF RAINFALL ON ECONOMIC GROWTH

Year 2020, Volume: 11 Issue: 28, 665 - 679, 30.09.2020
https://doi.org/10.21076/vizyoner.693363

Abstract

The variation in rainfall amount is found to be more forceful in poorer or agriculture-dependent countries and seems to be less effective for industrial economies. As Turkey is a newly industrialised country with a growing service economy, it is categorized as an emerging economy in the world. However, agricultural industry still plays a significant role in the economy especially in terms of the level of employment. The aim of the study is to examine the impact of rainfall on economy through economic outcomes of drought on agricultural industry. There seems to be a positive correlation between rainfall and agricultural industry in over the investigated period. As the growth in agricultural industry is highly correlated, similarly rainfall and overall economic growth appear to be coinciding and moving together. When there is drought in the country, economic crises follow this pattern. Besides rainfall, another variable, temperature, is allowed to identify whether it has any effect on the growth. Contrary to rain, temperature has no influence on agricultural output. The descriptive figures note that while agricultural industry involves a small share of the whole economy, the results of the study imply rainfall amount in Turkey has more impacts on economic growth than thought. 

References

  • Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S. and Robinson, J. A. (2001). The Colonial origins of comparative development: An empirical ınvestigation. American Economic Review 91(5), 1369-1401.
  • Arnell, N. W., Brown, S., Gosling, S. N., Gottschalk, P., Hinkel, J., Huntingford, C., Lloyd-Hughes, B., Lowe, J. A., Nicholls, R. J., Osborn, T. J., Osborne, T. M., Rose, G. A.,
  • Smith, P., Wheeler, T. R. and Zelazowski, P. (2014). The impacts of climate change across the globe: A multi-sectoral assessment. Climatic Change, 134(3), 457-474.
  • Barrios, S., Bertinelli, L. and Strobl, E. (2010). Trends in rainfall and economic growth in Africa: A neglected cause of the African growth tragedy. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 92(2), 350-366.
  • Batten, S., Sowerbutts, R. and Tanaka, M. (2019). Climate change: Macroeconomic impact and implications for monetary policy. (Fortcoming in: Ecological, Societal, and Technological Risks and Financial Sector).
  • Bayrac, H. N. and Dogan, E. (2016). Impacts of climate change on agriculture sector in Turkey. Eskisehir Osmangazi Universitesi IIBF Dergisi, 11(1), 23-48.
  • Bond, S., Leblebicioglu, A. and Schiantarelli, F. (2007). Capital accumulation and growth: a new look at the empirical evidence. Boston College Working Papers in Economics, 591, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 02 Aug 2007.
  • Borgomeo, E., Vadheim, B., Woldeyes, F. B., Alamirew, T., Tamru, S., Charles, K. J., Kebede, S. and Walker, O. (2018). The distributional and multi-sectoral impacts of rainfall shocks: Evidence from computable general equilibrium modelling for the Awash Basin, Ethiopia. Ecological Economics, 146, 621-632.
  • Bugra, A. (2010). Toplumsal cinsiyet, işgücü piyasaları ve refah rejimleri: Türkiye’de kadın istihdamı. TÜBİTAK Project No: 108K524. Access address: https://spf.boun.edu.tr/sites/spf.boun.edu.tr/files/1439799128_aysebugra_kadinistihdami_tubitak_0.pdf, (20 Feb 2018).
  • Central Bank of Turkey. (2019). Access address: http://evds.tcmb.gov.tr, (5 May 2019).
  • Chen, Y. Y. Autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model. Access address: http://mail.tku.edu.tw/chenyiyi/ADL.pdf, (14 Jun 2018).
  • Dell, M., Jones, B. F. and Olken, B. (2012). Temperature shocks and economic growth: Evidence from the last half century. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics. 4(3), 66-95.
  • Dell, M., Jones, B. F. and Olken, B. A. (2014). What do we learn from the weather? The new climate-economy literature. Journal of Economic Literature, 52(3), 740-98.
  • Devlet Su İsleri. (2014). Toprak su kaynakları. Access address: http://www.dsi.gov.tr/toprak-ve-su-kaynaklari (20 Dec 2017).
  • Ertunga, E. I. and Unalmis I. (2014). Kurak dönemlerde elektrik üretim kaynakları arasındaki ikame ve bu ikamenin ithalat üzerindeki etkileri. Central Bank of Turkey, Research Notes in Economics. Sayı 2014-15/ 17 Ekim 2014.
  • European Commision Factsheet. (2019). Access address: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/3217494/7777899/KS-FK-16-001-EN-N.pdf/cae3c56f-53e2-404a-9e9e-fb5f57ab49e3, (16 March 2019).
  • Evans, R. G. and Sadler, E. J. (2008). Methods and technologies to improve efficiency of water use. Water Resour. Res., 44, W00E04, doi:10.1029/2007WR006200.
  • Financial Times. (2019). Access Address: https://www.ft.com/content/04540eb8-b52d-11e8-bbc3-ccd7de085ffe, (27 Nov 2019).
  • Gilmont, M., Hall, J. W., Grey, D., Dadson, S. J., Abele, S. and Simpson, M. (2018). Analysis of the relationship between rainfall and economic growth in Indian states, Global Environmental Change, 49, 56-72. doi:10.1016/ j.gloenvcha.2018.01.003.
  • Global Economic Prospect. (2013). South Asia Annex. Access address: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPROSPECTS/Resources/334934-1322593305595/8287139-1358278153255/GEP13aSARRegionalAnnex.pdf, (02 May 2018).
  • Gulati, A. and Sharma, A. (1995). Subsidy syndrome in Indian agriculture. Economic and Political Weekly, 30(39), A93-A102.
  • Kapluhan, E. (2013). Drought and drought in Turkey effect of agriculture. Marmara Cografya Dergisi, (7), 487-510.
  • Mackinnon, J. G. (1991). Critical Values for cointegration tests. R. F. Engle and C. W. J. Granger (Ed.), Long-run economic relationship: Readings in cointegration, Oxford University Press, New York.
  • Mani, M., Bandyopadhyay, S., Chonabayashi, S., Markandya, A. and Mosier, T. (2018). South Asia's Hotspots: Impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on living standards. South Asia Development Matters; Washington, DC: World Bank. © World Bank. Access address: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/28723 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO, (20 Feb 2018).
  • Mansouri, B. (2004). Impact of drought and fiscal policy on private consumption, private investment and economic growth in Morocco: An empirical analysis. In Workshop on ‘The Prospects of Arab Economic Cooperation to Boost Savings and Investment’, Alexandria, Egypt, June 22-24, 2004.
  • Masters, W. A. and Wiebe, K. D. (2000). Climate and Agricultural Productivity. Center for International Development, 617(496), 7100.
  • Parker, J. (2018). Theory and practice of econometrics at reed college. Access address: http://www.reed.edu/economics/parker/312/tschapters/S13 Ch 3.pdf, (15 Jun 2018).
  • Rodrik, D., Subramanian, A. and Trebbi, F. (2004). Institutions rule: the primacy of institutions over geography and integration in economic development. Journal of Economic Growth, 9(2), 131-165.
  • Rosenzweig, C., Tubiello, F. N., Goldberg, R., Mills, E. and Bloomfield, J. (2002). Increased crop damage in the US from excess precipitation under climate change. Global Environ Change 12, 197-202.
  • Salami, H., Shahnooshi, N. and Thomson, K. J. (2009). The economic impacts of drought on the economy of Iran: An integration of linear programming and macroeconometric modelling approaches. Ecological Economics, 68(4), 1032-1039.
  • Sarı, R., Hammoudeh, S. and Ewing, B. T. (2007). Dynamic relationships between oil and metal commodity futures prices. Geopolitics of Energy, 29(17).
  • Turkes, M. (2012). Observed and projected climate change, drought and desertification in Turkey. Ankara Universitesi Cevre Bilimleri Dergisi, 4(2), 1-32 (2012)
  • Turkish State Meteorological Service. (2019). Access address: https://mgm.gov.tr, (5 May 2019).
  • Turkish Statistical Institute. (2019). Access address: http://www.turkstat.gov.tr, (5 May 2019).
There are 34 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Environment and Culture, Economics
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Erkan Kara 0000-0001-7228-0396

Ahmet Diken 0000-0002-6455-9749

Publication Date September 30, 2020
Submission Date February 24, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020 Volume: 11 Issue: 28

Cite

APA Kara, E., & Diken, A. (2020). CLIMATIC CHANGE: THE EFFECT OF RAINFALL ON ECONOMIC GROWTH. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Vizyoner Dergisi, 11(28), 665-679. https://doi.org/10.21076/vizyoner.693363

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