Gelişmiş Ülkelerde Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım Çıkışları İle Yurt İçi Yatırımlar Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi

Year 2021, Volume: 12 Issue: 31, 903 - 917, 20.08.2021

Nur Aydın

https://doi.org/10.21076/vizyoner.830326

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı gelişmiş ülkelerde doğrudan yabancı yatırım çıkışları ile yurt içi yatırımları arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini incelemektir. Çalışma, dokuz gelişmiş ülke için (ABD, Almanya, Fransa, Hollanda, İngiltere, İrlanda, İsviçre, Japonya ve Kanada) 1985-2018 dönemi için ele alınmıştır. Çalışmada doğrudan yabancı yatırım çıkışları ile yurt içi yatırımlar arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi yatay kesit bağımlılığı ve homojeniteye izin veren panel Granger nedensellik testiyle incelenmiştir. Çalışmanın yatay kesit bağımlılığı ve homojenlik testi sonuçlarına göre serilerde yatay kesit bağımlılığı vardır. Ayrıca çalışmanın eğim katsayıları beklentilere uygun şekilde homojendir. CADF panel birim kök testi sonuçlarına göre ülke ve paneli oluşturan seriler düzey değerinde durağan değildir. Panel Granger nedensellik sonuçlarına göre ise gelişmiş ülkelerde doğrudan yabancı yatırım çıkışlarından ana ülkenin yurt içi yatırımlarına doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi vardır.

Keywords

Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım Çıkışları, Yurt İçi Yatırımlar, Gelişmiş Ülkeler, Panel Nedensellik Analizi

Causality Relationship between Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Domestic Investments in Developed Countries

Abstract

The aim of the study is to examine the causality relationship between outward foreign direct investment and domestic investments in developed countries. The study encompasses 1985-2018 period for nine developed countries (USA, Germany, France, Netherlands, UK, Ireland, Switzerland, Japan and Canada). In the study, the causality relationship between outward foreign direct investment and domestic investments is examined with the panel Granger causality test that allows for cross-sectional dependency and homogeneity. According to the results of the cross-section dependence and homogeneity test of the study, there is a cross-section dependence in the series. In addition, the slope coefficients of the study are homogeneous in accordance with the expectations. According to the CADF panel unit root test results, the country and the series forming the panel are not stable at level value. According to the panel Granger causality results, there is a one-way causality relationship from outward foreign direct investment to the domestic investments of the home country in developed countries.

Keywords

Outward Foreign Direct Investment, Domestic Investments, Developed Countries, Panel Causality Analysis

References

• Acar, S., Eriş, B. ve Tekçe, M. (2012). The effect of foreign direct investment on domestic investment: Evidence from MENA countries. 14th Annual European Trade Study Group Conference Paper 143.
• Agosin, M. R. ve Machado, R. (2005). Foreign investment in developing countries: Does it crowd in domestic investment?. Oxford Development Studies, 33(2), 149-162.
• Ali, U. ve Wang, J. J. (2018). Does outbound foreign direct investment crowd out domestic investment in China? Evidence from time series analysis. Global Economic Review, 47(4), 419-433.
• Al-Sadig, A. J. (2013). Outward foreign direct investment and domestic investment: The case of developing countries. IMF Working Paper, Middle East and Central Asia Department, 13(52), 1-27.
• Ameer, W., Sohag, K., Xu, H. ve Halwan, M. M. (2020). The impact of OFDI and institutional quality on domestic capital formation at the disaggregated level: Evidence for developed and emerging countries. Sustainability, 12(3661), 1-18.
• Ameer, W., Xu, H. ve Alotaish, M. S. M. (2017a). Outward foreign direct investment and domestic investment: Evidence from China. Economic Research, 30(1), 777-788.
• Ameer, W., Xu, H. ve Alotaish, M. S. M. (2017b). Outward fdi, domestic investment and informal institutions: Evidence from China. International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Research (IJECR), 7(1), 25-30.
• Andersen, P. S. ve Hainaut, P. (1998). Foreign direct investment and employment in the industrial countries. Working Paper No.61, Bank for International Settlements (BIS).
• Arndt, C., Buch, C. M. ve Schnitzer M. (2007). Fdi and domestic investment: An industry-level view. In: Centre for Economic Policy Research Discussion Paper Series, Discussion Paper No 6464, London.
• Aydın, N. ve Şimşir Cömertler, N. (2017). Doğrudan yabancı yatırımların yatırımcı ülke ekonomisine etkileri: Panel veri analizi. Bankacılar Dergisi, 34-56.
• Aytun, C. ve Ekiz, F. M. (2016). Gelişmiş ve yükselen ekonomilerde telekomünikasyon yatırımları ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Panel nedensellik analizi. International Congress of Management Economy and Policy 2016, 1013-1027.
• Belderbos, R. (1992). Large multinational enterprises based in a small economy: Effects on domestic investment. Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), 128(3), 543-557.
• Braconier, H., Ekholm, K. ve Midelfart Knarvik, K. H. (2001). In search of fdi-transmitted R&D spillovers: A study based on Swedish data. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 137(4), 644-665.
• Braunerhjelm, P., Oxelheim, L. ve Thulin, P. (2005). The relationship between domestic and outward foreign direct investment: The role of industry-specific effects. International Business Review, 14(6), 677-694.
• Breitung, J. (2005). A parametric approach to the estimation of cointegration vectors in panel data, Econometric Reviews, 24, 151-173.
• Breusch, T. S. ve Pagan, A. R. (1980). The lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification tests in econometrics. Review of Economic Studies, 47, 239-253.
• Chen, T. J. ve Ku, Y. H. (2000). The effect of foreign direct investment on firm growth: The case of Taiwan’s manufactureres. Japan and World Economy, 12(2), 153-172.
• Dam, M. (2014). Sera gazı emisyonlarının makroekonomik değişkenlerle ilişkisi: OECD ülkeleri için panel veri analizi. Doktora Tezi, Adnan Menderes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Aydın.
• Dasgupta, N. (2014). Home country effect of FDI outflows from the BRIC countries: Study of domestic investment. Working Paper, UMBC.
• Dasgupta, N. (2016). Fdi outflows and domestic investment: Substitutes or complements? Exploring the Indian experience. Copenhagen Discussion Papers, 1-50.
• Desai, M. A., Foley, C. F. ve Hines Jr. J. R. (2005a). Foreign direct investment and domestic economic activity. NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper 11717, Cambridge Massachusetts.
• Desai, M. A., Foley, F. ve Hines, Jr. J. R. (2005b). Foreign direct investment and domestic capital stock. NBER Working Paper, No. 11075, 1-16.
• Dunning, J. H. (1993). Multinational enterprises and the global economy (1th ed.). Wokingham: Addison-Wesley.
• Feldstein, M. S. (1995). The effects of outbound foreign direct investment on the domestic capital stock. In The Effects of Taxation on Multinational Corporations. University of Chicago Press: Chicago, 43-66.
• Girma, S., Patnaik, I. ve Shah, A. (2010). The impact of outbound FDI on domestic investment. National Institute of Public Finance and Policy Working Paper.
• Globerman, S., Kokko, A. ve Sjöholm, F. (2000). International technology diffusion: Evidence from Swedish patent data. Kyklos, 53(1), 17-38.
• Goedegebuure, R. V. (2006). The effects of outward foreign direct investment on domestic investment. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 3(1), 9-22.
• Goh, S. K. ve Wong, K. N. (2014). Could inward fdi offset the substitution effect of outward fdi: Evidence from Malaysia. Prague Economic Papers, 413-425.
• Gondim, I., Ogasavara, M. H. ve Masiero, G. (2018). Effects of outward foreign direct investment on domestic investment: The cases of Brazil and China. Journal of International Development, 1-16.
• Granger, C. W. J. (2003). Some aspects of causal relationships, Journal of Econometrics, 112, 69-71.
• Güloğlu, B. ve İvrendi, M. (2010). Output fluctuations: Transitory or permanent? The case of Latin America. Applied Economics Letters, 17, 381-386.
• Hejazi, W. ve Pauly, P. (2002). Foreign direct investment and capital formation. Industry Canada Research Publication Program, Working Paper, No 36.
• Herring, R. ve Willett, T. (1973). The relationship between US direct investment at home and abroad. Revista Internazionale dio Scienze Economiche e Commerciale, 20(1), 72-82.
• Herzer, D. (2008). The causal relationship between domestic and outward foreign investment: Evidence for Italy. Applied Financial Economics Letters, 4(5), 307-310.
• Herzer, D. (2010). Outward fdi and economic growth. Journal of Economic Studies, 37(5), 476-494.
• Herzer, D. ve Schrooten, M. (2008). Outward fdi and domestic investment in two industrialized countries. Economic Letters, 99(1), 139-143.
• Hsu, W. C., Wang, C. ve Clegg, J. (2015). The effects of outward foreign direct investment on fixed-capital formation at home: The roles of host location and industry characteristics. Global Economic Review, 44(3), 353-368.
• International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2016). World economic and financial surveys,subdued demand, symptoms and remedies, Erişim adresi: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo, (26.12.2019).
• Kar, M., Nazlıoğlu, S. ve Ağır, H. (2011). Financial development and economic growth nexus in the MENA countries: Bootstrap panel granger causality analysis. Economic Modelling, 28(1-2), 685-693.
• Kim, S. (2000). Effects of outward foreign direct investment on home country performance: Evidence from Korea. T. Ito ve A. O. Krueger (Ed.), The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in East Asian Economic Development içinde (295-317), Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
• Kurul, Z. (2020). Outward foreign direct investment and domestic investment nexus in Turkey: Crowding out or crowding in?. Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 22/3, 913-936.
• Menyah, K., Nazlıoğlu, Ş. ve Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2014). Financial development, trade openness and economic growth in African countries: New insights from a panel causality approach. Economic Modelling, 37, 386-394.
• Namini, J. E. ve Pennings, E. (2009). Horizontal multinational firms, vertical multinational firms and domestic investment. Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper, TI 2009-004/2.
• Nazlıoğlu, S., Lebe, F. ve Kayhan, S. (2011). Nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in OECD countries: Cross-sectionally dependent heterogeneous panel causality analysis. Energy Policy, 39(10), 6615-6621.
• Noorzoy, M. S. (1979). Flows of direct investment and their effects on investment in Canada. Economics Letters, 2(3), 257-261.
• Noorzoy, M. S. (1980). Flows of direct investment and their effects on US domestic investment’. Economic Letters, 5, 311-317.
• Onaran, Ö., Stockhammer, E. ve Zwickl, K. (2010). Fdi and domestic investment in Germany: Crowding in or out?. Department of Economics and Statistics Middlesex University Business School, Discussion Paper No:143.
• Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 435, 1-39.
• Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22, 265-312.
• Pesaran, M. H. ve Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
• Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A. ve Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias-adjusted Lm test of error cross-section independence. Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105-127.
• Sastre, T. ve Recuero, L. H. (2019). Domestic and foreign investment in advanced economies. The role of industry integration. Documentos de Trabajo, No: 1933, 1-28.
• Sauramo, P. (2008). Does outward foreign direct investment reduce domestic investment? Macroevidence from Finland. Discussion Papers, No:239.
• Shah, S. H., Ameer, W. ve Delpachitra, S. (2020). OFDI impact on private investment in the Gulf economies. Sustainability, 12(4492), 1-13.
• Stevens, G. V. G. ve Lipsey, R. E. (1992). Interactions between domestic and foreign investment. Journal of International Money and Finance, 11(1), 40-62.
• Svensson, R. (1993). Domestic and foreign investment by Swedish multinationals. Working Paper Series 391, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
• Tan, B. W., Goh, S. K. ve Wong, K. N. (2016). The effects of inward and outward fdi on domestic investment: Evidence using panel data of ASEAN-8 countries. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 17(5), 717-733.
• Tatoğlu, F. Y. (2017). Panel zaman serileri analizi (1.Baskı). Beta Yayınevi: İstanbul.
• Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Ekonomi Bakanlığı Yurtdışı Yatırım Raporu. (2017). Türkiye’nin yurtdışı yatırımları. Serbest Bölgeler, Yurtdışı Yatırım ve Hizmetler Genel Müdürlüğü.
• United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). (2020a). Outward foreign direct investment (Milyon Dolar). Erişim adresi: https://unctadstat.unctad.org/wds/ReportFolders/reportFolders.aspx?sCS_ChosenLang=en, (27.10.2020).
• United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). (2020b). Gross fixed capital formation (Milyon Dolar). Erişim adresi: https://unctadstat.unctad.org/wds/TableViewer/tableView.aspx?ReportId=95, (27.10.2020).