Evaluation of the EU Aviation Sector’s Progress Towards Net-Zero CO2 Emission by 2050

Year 2025, Volume: 16 Issue: 45, 261 - 277, 28.02.2025

Caner İlhan , Aybike Esra Şahin

https://doi.org/10.21076/vizyoner.1500869

Abstract

The study examines 31 years of aviation-related CO2 emission data from 1990 to 2021, utilizing advanced modeling techniques such as linear regression and Prophet to anticipate CO2 emissions for the critical years 2030 and 2050. The report digs into each country's performance, assessing their promises to cut or even eliminate carbon emissions in line with the ambitious targets of the European Green Deal. Romania emerges as a noteworthy pioneer, demonstrating a remarkable commitment to decreasing emissions by an average of 47.22% by 2030 and 56.54% by 2050, establishing itself as a vital contributor to carbon neutrality. On the other hand, Luxembourg, Poland, and Spain are recognized as countries that deviate considerably from the established targets, raising worries about their capacity to reach the ambitious goals set by the European Green Deal. The study not only gives insights into expected CO2 emission trajectories but also helps our knowledge of the obstacles and possibilities each nation has in achieving the carbon-neutral ambitions described in the European Green Deal.

Keywords

Aviation, European Green Deal, Linear Regression, Prophet, Sustainability

AB Havacılık Sektörünün 2050 Yılına Kadar Net Sıfır CO2 Emisyonuna Yönelik İlerlemesinin Değerlendirilmesi

Abstract

Bu makale, 2030 ve 2050 yıllarına yönelik CO2 emisyon tahminlerini yapmak amacıyla, 1990'dan 2021'e kadar olan 31 yıllık havacılık kaynaklı CO2 emisyon verilerini incelemekte ve doğrusal regresyon ile Prophet gibi ileri modelleme tekniklerini kullanmaktadır. Çalışma, her bir ülkenin performansını değerlendirerek, emisyon azaltma taahhütlerini incelemektedir. Avrupa Yeşil Mutabakatının iddialı hedefleri doğrultusunda karbon emisyonlarının azaltılması hedeflenmektedir. Romanya, emisyonlarını 2030 yılına kadar ortalama %47,22 ve 2050 yılına kadar %56,54 oranında azaltma konusundaki kararlılığı ile öne çıkarak, karbon nötrlüğüne ciddi katkılar sunan bir ülke olarak kendini kanıtlamaktadır. Buna karşılık, Lüksemburg, Polonya ve İspanya, belirlenen hedeflerden önemli ölçüde sapmakta olup, bu ülkelerin Avrupa Yeşil Mutabakatının iddialı hedeflerine ulaşma kapasiteleri hakkında endişeler artmaktadır. Bu çalışma, sadece beklenen CO2 emisyon trendleri hakkında bilgi sağlamakla kalmamakta, aynı zamanda her ülkenin Avrupa Yeşil Mutabakatı çerçevesinde karbon nötr hedeflerine ulaşmada karşılaştığı engeller ve sahip olduğu fırsatlar konusunda da derinlemesine içgörüler sunmaktadır.

Keywords

Havacılık, Avrupa Yeşil Mutabakatı, Doğrusal Regresyon, Prophet, Sürdürülebilirlik

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