TESTING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TURNOVERS AND ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE VARIABLES WITH FRACTIONAL FREQUENCY FOURIER ADF AND GRANGER CAUSALITY TEST: THE CASE OF TURKIYE 2009:01-2023:05

Abstract

This study aims to determine the causality relationship between economic confidence and sectoral turnover increases in Turkey. The sectors to be analysed in the study are industry, construction, trade and service sectors and the relationship between sectoral turnovers and economic confidence will be evaluated for the period 2009:01-2023:05. In the study, Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit Root Test and Fourier Granger Causality Test were applied. When the causality test results are analysed, it is seen that the relationship between variables differs on sector basis. In this context, while there is no causality relationship between the turnover of the construction sector and economic confidence, there is a relationship with the turnover of other sectors. The outputs obtained in this context will serve as a source for analysing which sector-specific policy arrangements should be made to increase economic confidence.

Keywords

• Economic confidence
• Sectoral turnovers
• Fourier analyses
• Granger causality test.

CİROLAR İLE EKONOMİK GÜVEN DEĞİŞKENLERİ ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN FRAKSİYONEL FREKANSLI FOURIER ADF VE GRANGER NEDENSELLİK TESTİ İLE TEST EDİLMESİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ 2009:01-2023:05

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye'de ekonomik güven ile sektörel ciro artışları arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini belirlemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmada analiz edilecek sektörler sanayi, inşaat, ticaret ve hizmet sektörleri olup, sektörel cirolar ile ekonomik güven arasındaki ilişki 2009:01-2023:05 dönemi için değerlendirilecektir. Çalışmada Augmented Dickey Fuller Birim Kök Testi ve Fourier Granger Nedensellik Testi uygulanmıştır. Nedensellik testi sonuçları incelendiğinde değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin sektör bazında farklılaştığı görülmektedir. Bu kapsamda inşaat sektörü cirosu ile ekonomik güven arasında herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmazken, diğer sektörlerin ciroları ile ilişki bulunmaktadır. Bu kapsamda elde edilen çıktılar, ekonomik güvenin artırılması için hangi sektöre özgü politika düzenlemelerinin yapılması gerektiğinin analiz edilmesine kaynak teşkil edecektir.

Keywords

• Ekonomik güven
• Sektörel cirolar
• Fourier analizleri
• Granger nedensellik testi.

References

1. Acar, D. A. (2019) "The Effects of Political Stability on Economic Growth of The Presidental Government System", Internatıonal Journal of Economıcs and Polıtıcs Scıences Academıc Researches, 3(9): 18-31.
2. Ahmed, D., Xie, Y., and Issam, K. (2021) "Investor Confidence and Life Insurance Demand: Can Economic Condition Limit Life Insurance Business?", International Journal of Emerging Markets, 18(7): 1537-1564.
3. Batchelor, R. and Dua, P. (1998) "Improving Macro-Economic Forecasts: The Role of Consumer Confidence", International Journal of Forecasting, 14(1): 71-81. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(97)00052-6
4. Borisov, L. (2022) "Consumer Confidence and Real Economic Growth in the Eurozone", Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, 8(3): 7-13. https://ideas.repec.org//a/bal/journl/2256-07422017832.html
5. Bovi, M. (2009) "Economic Versus Psychological Forecasting. Evidence From Consumer Confidence Surveys", Journal of Economic Psychology, 30(4): 563-574. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2009.04.001
6. Bugarin, M. and Hazama, Y. (2014) "Consumer Economic Confidence and Preference for Redistribution: Main Equilibrium Results", Economics Bulletin, 34(3): 2002-2009.
7. Choudhry, T. and Wohar, M. (2023) "What Drives US Consumer Confidence? The Asymmetric Effects of Economic Uncertainty", International Journal of Finance and Economics, 29: 4268-4285. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2877
8. Chu, A. C. (2007) "Confidence-Enhanced Economic Growth", The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 7(1): 1-20. https://doi.org/10.2202/1935-1690.1495

9. Claveria, O. (2020) "Evolution of Business and Consumer Uncertainty in The Midst of The Covid-19 Pandemic A Sector Analysis In 32 European Countries", SSRN Electronic Journal, 1-18. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3688033
10. Claveria, O., Monte, E., and Torra, S. (2020) "Economic Forecasting with Evolved Confidence Indicators", Economic Modelling, 93: 576-585. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.09.015
11. Dajčman, S. (2020) "Economic Policy and Confidence of Economic Agents – A Causal Relationship?", Review of Economic Perspectives, 20(4): 471-484. https://doi.org/10.2478/revecp-2020-0023
12. Demirel, S. and Artan, S. (2017) "The Causality Relationships Between Economic Confidence and Fundamental Macroeconomic Indicators: Empirical Evidence from Selected European Union Countries", International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7: 417-424.
13. Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A. (1979) "Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with A Unit Root", Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366): 427-431. https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348
14. Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A. (1981) "Likelihood Ratio Statistics For Autoregressive Time Series With A Unit Root", Econometrica, 49(4): 1057-1072. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912517
15. Enders, W. and Paul, J. (2016) "Grain Prices, Oil Prices, and Multiple Smooth Breaks in a VAR", Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 20(4): 399-419.
16. Filippin, A. and Paccagnella, M. (2012) "Family Background, Self-Confidence and Economic Outcomes", Economics of Education Review, 31(5): 824-834. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econedurev.2012.06.002
17. Gholipour, H. F., Tajaddini, R., and Farzanegan, M. R. (2023) "Governments’ Economic Support for Households During the COVID-19 Pandemic And Consumer Confidence", Empirical Economics, 65(3): 1253-1272. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-023-02367-0
18. Granger, C. W. J. (1969) "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods", Econometrica, 37(3): 424-438. https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/1912791.pdf
19. Guo, Y. and He, S. (2020) "Does Confidence Matter for Economic Growth? An Analysis from the Perspective of Policy Effectiveness", International Review of Economics and Finance, 69: 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2020.04.012
20. Ha, J. and So, I. (2023) "Global Confidence, Uncertainty, and Business Cycles", International Journal of Central Banking, 19(1): 451-495
21. Hanke, S. H. (2008) "Economic Freedom, Confidence and Growth". Içinde W. Bieńkowski, J. C. Brada, and M.-J. Radło (Ed.), Growth versus Security: Old and New EU Members’ Quest for a New Economic and Social Model (ss. 200-207). Palgrave Macmillan UK. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230228238_9
22. Hutcheson, J. M. (1994) "Forecasting the Building Industry's Prospects Beyond 2000", Property Management, 12(1): 5-15. https://doi.org/10.1108/02637479410052271
23. Kilci, E. N. (2020) "Do Confidence Indicators Have an Impact on Macro-Financial Indicators? An Analysis of the Financial Service and Real Sector Confidence Indexes: Evidence from Turkey", European Journal of Government and Economics, 9(1): 74-94. https://doi.org/10.17979/ejge.2020.9.1.5948
24. Kilic, E. and Cankaya, S. (2016) "Consumer Confidence and Economic Activity: A Factor Augmented VAR Approach", Applied Economics, 48(32): 3062-3080. https://doi.org/0.1080/00036846.2015.1133902
25. Koç, E., Şenel, M. C., and Kaya, K. (2018) "Türkiye’de Sanayi Sektörünün Genel Durumu-Sanayi Ciro Endeksi", Mühendis ve Makina, 59(692): 17-34.
26. Kuzenbayev, N. and Pelizzo, R. (2023) "Political Stability, Confidence in the Future, and Values", Social Sciences, 12(2): 1-16. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci12020082
27. Lam, K.-C. (2002) "Interaction Between Economic and Political Factors in the Migration Decision", Journal of Comparative Economics, 30(3): 488-504. https://doi.org/10.1006/jcec.2002.1783
28. Matsusaka, J. G. and Sbordone, A. M. (1995) "Consumer Confidence and Economic Fluctuations", Economic Inquiry, 33(2): 296-318. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7295.1995.tb01864.x Montes, G. C. and Nogueira, F. da S. L. (2021) "Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Political Uncertainty on Business Confidence and Investment", Journal of Economic Studies, 49(4): 577-602. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-12-2020-0582 Nadenichek, J. (2007). "Consumer Confidence and Economic Stagnation in Japan", Japan and the World Economy, 19: 338-346. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.japwor.2006.05.005
29. Pirinsky, C. (2013) "Confidence and Economic Attitudes", Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 91: 139-158. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2013.04.013
30. Vadas, G. (2001) "Beyond Macro Variables: Consumer Confidence Index and Household Expenditure in Hungary", MNB Background Studies (discontinued) 2001/2, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
31. Vaillant, N. and Flambard, V. (2015) "Economic Conditions and Confidence: Do Changes in the Consumption Level Affect The Dynamics of Confidence?", Economics Bulletin, 35(1): 21-29.
32. Van Suntum, U. (2009) "Economic Confidence, Negative Interest Rates, and Liquidity: Towards Keynesianism 2.0" (Working Paper No. 24). CAWM Discussion Paper. 1-25. https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/51272