TESTING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TURNOVERS AND ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE VARIABLES WITH FRACTIONAL FREQUENCY FOURIER ADF AND GRANGER CAUSALITY TEST: THE CASE OF TURKIYE 2009:01-2023:05

Öz

This study aims to determine the causality relationship between economic confidence and sectoral turnover increases in Turkey. The sectors to be analysed in the study are industry, construction, trade and service sectors and the relationship between sectoral turnovers and economic confidence will be evaluated for the period 2009:01-2023:05. In the study, Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit Root Test and Fourier Granger Causality Test were applied. When the causality test results are analysed, it is seen that the relationship between variables differs on sector basis. In this context, while there is no causality relationship between the turnover of the construction sector and economic confidence, there is a relationship with the turnover of other sectors. The outputs obtained in this context will serve as a source for analysing which sector-specific policy arrangements should be made to increase economic confidence.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Economic confidence
• Sectoral turnovers
• Fourier analyses
• Granger causality test.

CİROLAR İLE EKONOMİK GÜVEN DEĞİŞKENLERİ ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN FRAKSİYONEL FREKANSLI FOURIER ADF VE GRANGER NEDENSELLİK TESTİ İLE TEST EDİLMESİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ 2009:01-2023:05

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye'de ekonomik güven ile sektörel ciro artışları arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini belirlemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmada analiz edilecek sektörler sanayi, inşaat, ticaret ve hizmet sektörleri olup, sektörel cirolar ile ekonomik güven arasındaki ilişki 2009:01-2023:05 dönemi için değerlendirilecektir. Çalışmada Augmented Dickey Fuller Birim Kök Testi ve Fourier Granger Nedensellik Testi uygulanmıştır. Nedensellik testi sonuçları incelendiğinde değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin sektör bazında farklılaştığı görülmektedir. Bu kapsamda inşaat sektörü cirosu ile ekonomik güven arasında herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmazken, diğer sektörlerin ciroları ile ilişki bulunmaktadır. Bu kapsamda elde edilen çıktılar, ekonomik güvenin artırılması için hangi sektöre özgü politika düzenlemelerinin yapılması gerektiğinin analiz edilmesine kaynak teşkil edecektir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ekonomik güven
• Sektörel cirolar
• Fourier analizleri
• Granger nedensellik testi.

Kaynakça

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