Ekonomik Büyüme ve Dış Ticaretin Çevre Kirliliği Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye İçin Bir ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de ekonomik büyüme ve dış ticaretin çevre kirliliği üzerindeki etkisini karbondioksit salınımı verilerini kullanarak inceler. Burada, Pesaran vd. tarafından son zamanda geliştirilmiş olan ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı 1980-2010 dönemi için kullanılmıştır. Test sonuçları, 1.520 ve 0.265 elastikiyet değerleri ile değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin varlığını göstermektedir. Başka bir ifadeyle, ekonomik büyüme ve dış ticaret açıklığı uzun dönemde çevresel kirliliği artırmaktadır. Sonuç olarak Türkiye’nin İklim Değişikliği Ulusal Eylem Planı 2011-2023 çerçevesinde karbondioksit azaltma hedeflerini gerçekleştirebilmesi için çevre politikalarını tekrar gözden geçirmesi gereklidir.

Keywords

• Ekonomik büyüme, Dış ticaret, Çevre kirliliği, ARDL sınır testi

The Impact of Economic Growth and Foreign Trade on The Environmental Pollution: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach for Turkey

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of economic growth and foreign trade on the environmental pollution as measured by carbon dioxide emissions in Turkey. Here, we use the ARDL bounds testing approach recently developed by Pesaran et al. over the time period 19802010. The results suggest that there is a long-run relationship between variables with the estimated elasticities of 1.520 and 0.265, respectively. In other words, economic growth and trade openness increase environmental pollution in the long run. The main conclusion of this paper is that in order to fulfill National Climate Change Action Plan 2011-2023 to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, Turkey needs a revised environmental policy

Keywords

• Economic growth, Foreign trade, Environmental pollution, ARDL bounds testing

References

1. ANTWEILER W., COPELAND B.R., ve TAYLOR. M.S. (2001), “Is free trade good for the environment?”, The American Economic Review, 91(4), 877-908.
2. ARROW, K., BOLIN, B., COSTANZA, R., DASGUPTA, P., FOLKE, C., HOLLING, C. S., JANSSON, B., LEVIN, S., MALER, K., PERRINGS, C., ve PIMENTEL, D. (1995), “Economic growth, carrying capacity and the environment”, Science, 268, 520-521.
3. BAEK, J., CHO, Y., ve KOO, W.W. (2009), “The environmental consequences of globalization: A country-specific time-series analysis”. Ecological Economics, 68, 2255-2264.
4. BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, M. (2001), “How stable is M2 money demand function in japan?”, Japan and the World Economy. 13, 455-461.
5. BOULATOFF, C. ve JENKINS, M. 2010. “Long-term nexus between openness, income, and environmental quality”, Int. Adv. Econ. Res., 16, 410-418.
6. BECKERMAN, W. (1974), In Defence of economic growth, London: Jonathan Cape.
7. BIRDSALL, N., ve WHEELER, D. (1993), “Trade policy and industrial pollution in Latin America: Where are the pollution havens?”, Journal of Environment and Development, 2(1), 137- 150.
8. BOULATOFF, C., ve JENKINS, M. (2010), “Long-term nexus between openness, income and environmental quality”, International Advances in Economic Research. 16(4), 410-418.

9. BROWN, R. L., DURBIN, J., ve EVANS, J. M. (1975), “Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relations over time”, Journal of Royal Statistical Society. 37 (Series B), 149- 163.
10. CHEBBI, H. E., OLARREAGA, M. ve ZITOUNA, H. (2009), “Trade Openness and CO2 Emissions in Tunisia. Shocks vulnerability and therapy”, ERF 16th Annual Conference November 7-9, Egypt.
11. CHOW, G. C. 1960, “Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions”, Econometrica, 28, 591-605.
12. COLE, M.A. (2004), “Trade, the pollution haven hypothesis and the environmental Kuznets curve: examining the linkages”, Ecological Economics, 48, 71-81.
13. COLE, M. A., ELLIOT, R. J. R., ve Fredriksson, P. G. (2004), “Endogenous pollution havens: Does FDI influence environmental regulations?”, Working Paper 2004/20, University of Nottingham.
14. COONDOO, D., ve DINDA, S. (2002), “Causality between income and emissions: A country group-specific econometric analysis”, Ecological Economics, 40 (3), 351-367.
15. COPELAND, B.R., & TAYLOR, M.S. (1994), “North-south trade and the environment, Quarterly Journal of Economics”, 109(3), 755-787.
16. COPELAND, B.R., ve TAYLOR, M.S. (1995), “Trade and transboundary pollution. The American Economic Review”, 85(4), 716-737.
17. COPELAND, B.R. ve TAYLOR, M.S. (1997), “The trade-induced degradation hypothesis. Resource and Energy Economics”, 19, 321-344.
18. COPELAND, B.R., ve Taylor, M.S. (2001), “International trade and the environment: A framework for analysis”, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 8540.
19. ÇŞB (2011), İklim Değişikliği Ulusal Eylem Planı:2011-2020, Çevre ve Şehircilik Bakanlığı. Erişim Tarihi: 08 Ocak 2013. http://www.tarimreformu.gov.tr/iklim/dosya/idep.pdf
20. DASGUPTA, S., LAPLANTE, B., Wang, H., ve Wheeler, D. (2002), “Confronting the environmental Kuznets curve”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 16(1), 147-168.
21. DE BRUYN, S. M., (1997)”, Explaining the environmental Kuznets curve: structural change and international agreements in reducing sulphur emissions”, Environment and Development Economics, 2, 485-503.
22. DE BRUYN, S. M., VAN DER BERGH J.C.J.M., ve OPSCHOOR, J. B. (1998), “Economic growth and emissions: Reconsidering the empirical base of environmental Kuznets curves”, Ecological Economics, 25, 161-175.
23. ELLIOTT, G., ROTHENBERG, T., ve STOCK, J. (1996), “EfŞcient tests for an autoregressive unit root”, Econometrica, 64, 813-836.
24. EMERSON, J.W., ESTY, D.C., ve HSU, A. (2012), “Environmental performance index and pilot trend environmental performance index”, Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy, Yale University Center for International Earth Science Information Network, Columbia University.
25. ENGLE, R.F., ve GRANGER, C.W.J. (1987), “Cointegration and error correction: Representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica, 55, 251-76.
26. EPI (2012), “Environmental performance index: Country profiles”, Yale University Erişim Tarihi: 17.05.2013, http://epi.yale.edu/epi2012/countryprofiles
27. FOSU, O. A. E., ve JOSEPH, M. F. (2006), “Aggregate import demand and expenditure components in Ghana: An econometric analysis”, MPRA Paper No.599, August.
28. GALE, L.R., ve J.A. MENDEZ, (1998), “The empirical relationship between trade, growth and the environment”, International Review of Economics and Finance, 7(1), 53-61.
29. GALEOTTI, M., ve LANZA, A. (1999), “Richer and cleaner? A study on carbon dioxide emissions by developing countries”, Energy Policy, 27, 565-573.
30. GALEOTTI, M., MANERA, M., ve LANZA, A. (2009), “On the robustness of robustness checks of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis”, Environment and Resources Economics, 42, 551-574.
31. GILES, D. E., ve MOSK, C. (2003), “Ruminant eructation and a long-run environmental Kuznets curve for enteric methane in New Zealand: Conventional and fuzzy regression”, Econometrics Working Paper, Vol. 0306. Canada: Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
32. GREGORY, A.W., ve HANSEN, B.E. (1996), “Residual based tests for co-integration in models with regime shifts”, Journal of Econometrics, 70, 99-126.
33. GROSSMAN, G. M., ve KRUEGER, A. B. (1991), “Environmental impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement”, Working Paper 3914, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.
34. GROSSMAN, G. M., ve KRUEGER, A.B. (1993), “Environmental impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement”, in The U.S.-Mexico Free Trade Agreement, Peter Garber (Ed.), MIT Press.
35. GROSSMAN, G. M., ve KRUEGER, A.B. (1995), “Economic growth and the environment”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(2): 353-77.
36. HALICIOĞLU, F. (2009), “An econometric study of CO2 emissions, energy consumption, income and foreign trade in Turkey”, Energy Policy, 37, 1156-1164.
37. HAMILTON, J. (1994), Time series analysis. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
38. HE, J. ve PATRICK, R. (2010), “Environmental Kuznets curve for CO2 in Canada. Ecological Economics”, 69, 1083–1093.
39. HUNG, M. ve SHAW, D. (2006), Economic growth and the environmental Kuznets curve in Taiwan: A simultaneity model analysis. In M. Boldrin (Eds.), Long-Run Growth and Economic Development From Theory to Empirics, UK, Edward Elgar.
40. IEA (2011), “CO2 emissions from fuel combustion”, Erişim Tarihi: 12 Mart 2013, http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/name,32870,en.htm
41. JOHANSEN, S. (1988), “Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-4.
42. JOHANSEN, S., ve JUSELIUS, K. (1990), “Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration: With application to the demand for money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210.
43. KAUFMANN, R. K., DAVIDSDOTTIR, B., Garnham, S., & Pauly, P. (1998), “The determinants of atmospheric SO2 concentrations: Reconsidering the environmental Kuznets curve”, Ecological Economics, 25(2), 209-220.
44. KOO, A. Y. C. (1974), “Environmental repercussions and trade theory”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 56(2), 235-244.
45. KUKLA-GRYZ, A. (2009), “Economic growth, international trade and air pollution: A decomposition analysis”, Ecological Economics, 68, 1329‐1339.
46. LAIDLER, E. W. D. (1993), The Demand for Money: Theories, Evidence and Problems (4th ed.). Harper Collins College Publishers.
47. LAPAN, H. E. ve SIKDAR, S. (2011), “Strategic environmental policy under free trade with transboundary pollution”, Review of Development Economics, 15(1), 1–18.
48. LOPEZ, R. (1994), “The environment as a factor of production: The effects of economic growth and trade liberalization”, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 27: 163-184.
49. LUCAS, R.E.B., WHEELER, D., ve HETTIGE, H. (1992), Economic development, environmental regulation and the international migration of toxic industrial pollution: 1960-88. In P. Low (Eds.), International Trade and the Environment, The World Bank, Washington, DC, pp. 67-88.
50. MEADOWS, D., ZAHN, E., ve MILLING, P. (1972). The limits to growth. New York: Universe Books.
51. METE, F. (2007), “Impact of trade liberalization on the environment in developing countries: The case of Nigeria”, MPRA Paper, No: 731, November.
52. MEYER, A.L., VAN KOOTEN, G.C., ve Wang, S. (2003), “Institutional, social and economic roots of reforestation: A cross-country comparison”, International Forestry Review, 5, 29-37.
53. NEWEY, W.K., ve WEST, K.D. (1994), “Automatic lag selection in covariance matrix estimation”, Review of Economic Studies, 61, 631-653.
54. OECD (2012), OECD Economic survey: Turkey overview. Erişim Tarihi: 12 Mart 2013, www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/OVERVIEW%20ENGLISH%20FINAL.pdf
55. ÖZTÜRK, İ., ve ACARAVCI, A. (2010), “CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 14, 3220-3225.
56. PALMER, K.L., ve SIMPSON, D. R. (1993), “Environmental policy as industrial policy”, Resources, 112, 17-21.
57. PANAYOTOU, T. (1993), “Empirical tests and policy analysis of environmental degradation at different stages of economic development”, Working Paper WP238, Technology and Employment Programme, Geneva: International Labour Office.
58. PESARAN, M. H., ve SHIN, Y. (1995), An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. In S. Strom, A. Holly, A. Diamond (Eds.), Centennial Volume of Ragner Frisch, Cambridge University Press.
59. PESARAN, M. H., ve SHIN, Y. (1999), “An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis”, In S. Strom (Eds.), Econometrics and economic theory in the 20th century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium. Cambridge University Press.
60. PESARAN, H., SHIN, Y. ve SMITH, R. (2001), “Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics,16, 289-326
61. PHILLIPS, P.C.B., ve PERRON, P. (1988), “Testing for a unit root in time series regressions”, Biometrika, 75, 335-346.
62. ROCA, J., PADILLA, E., FARRE, M., ve GALLETTO, V. (2001), “Economic growth and atmospheric pollution in Spain: Discussing the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis”, Ecological Economics, 39(1), 85-99.
63. ROCK, M. (1996), “Pollution intensity of GDP and trade policy: Can the World Bank be wrong?”, World Development, 24(3), 471-479.
64. SABOORI, B. (2012), “An empirical analysis of the Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO2 emissions in Indonesia: The role of energy consumption and foreign trade”, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 4(2), 243-251.
65. SACHS, J., PANATAYOU, T., ve PETERSON, A. (1999), “Developing countries and the control of climate change: A theoretical perspective and policy implications”, CAER II Discussion Paper, no. 44. Harvard Institute for International Development, USA: Cambridge, MA.
66. SCHMALENSEE, R., STOKER, T. M., ve JUDSON, R.A. (1998), “World carbon dioxide emissions: 1950-2050”, Review of Economics and Statistics, LXXX, 15-27.
67. SELDEN, T. M., ve SONG, D. (1994), “Environmental quality and development: Is there a Kuznets curve for air pollution emissions?”, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 27, 147-162.
68. SHAFIK, N., ve BANDYOPADHYAY, S. (1992), “Economic growth and environmental quality”, Background Paper for the 1992 World Development Report, Washington D.C: The World Bank.
69. SOYTAS, U., ve SARI, R. (2009), “Energy consumption, economic growth, and carbon emissions: Challenges faced by an EU candidate member”, Ecological Economics, 68, 1667-1675.
70. STERN, D., COMMON, M.S., ve BARBIER, E.B. (1996), “Economic growth and environmental degradation: The environmental Kuznets curve and sustainable development”, World Development, 24, 1151-1160.
71. STOCK, J. H., ve WATSON, M.W. (1993), “A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems”, Econometrica, 61(4), 783-820.
72. SURI, V., ve CHAPMAN, D. (1998), “Economic growth, trade, and energy: Implications for the environmental Kuznets curve”, Ecological Economics, 25, 195-208.
73. TÜİK, (2013), “Seragazi emisyon envanteri: 1990-2011”, Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu Haber Bülteni, Sayı http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreHaberBultenleri.do?id=13482. Erişim Tarihi: 25 Nisan 2013,
74. VICTOR P. A. (1972), Pollution, economy and environment, London: George Allen and Unwin.
75. VINCENT, J.R. (1997), “Testing for environmental Kuznets curves within a developing country”, Environment and Development Economics, 2, 417-431.
76. VOLLEBERGH, H., DIJKGRAAF, E., ve MELENBERG, B. (2005), “Environmental Kuznets curves for CO2: Heterogeneity versus homogeneity”, Discussion Paper 25, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research, Tilburg.
77. WHEELER, D., ve MARTIN, P. (1992), “Prices, policies and the international diffusion of clean technology: The case of wood pulp production”, In P. Low (Eds.), International trade and the environment (pp.197-224), Washington, DC: World Bank.