Türkiye'de Çevresel Kuznets Hipotezi ve Yenilenebilir Enerji Tüketiminin Karbon Salımı Üzerine Etkisi: Yapısal Kırılmalı Eşbütünleşme Yaklaşımı

Abstract

Çalışmanın amacı çevresel Kuznets hipotezini sınamak ve yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi ile sera gazı salımı arasındaki ilişkiyi ortaya çıkarmaktır. Bu amaçla; karbondioksit emisyonu, gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla ve yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklı elektrik tüketimi değişkenleri kullanılarak 1960-2013 dönemi için seriler elde edilmiş; tek ve çift yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testleriyle beraber yapısal kırılmaya izin veren eşbütünleşme analizleri ile seriler arasındaki uzun dönem ilişkinin varlığı tespit edilerek dinamik en küçük kareler yöntemi ile uzun dönem denge ilişkisi tahmin edilmiştir. Analiz sonucunda yenilenebilir kaynaklı enerji tüketiminin sera gazı salımını azalttığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Ayrıca Türkiye’de, Çevresel Kuznets hipotezinin geçerli olduğu ekonometrik yöntemlerle belirlenmiştir.

Keywords

• Birim Kök; Yapısal Kırılma; Eşbütünleşme; Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi

Environmental Kuznets Hypothesis and The Impact of Renewable Energy Consumption on Carbon Emmissions in Turkey: Cointegration with Structural Breaks Approach

Abstract

The aims of study are to reveal that how renewable energy consumption impacts on the GHG emissions and test the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for Turkey. For this purposes, series of CO2 emissions, GDP and electricity generated using renawebles between 1960 and 2013 are used. The unit root tests with structural breaks have been performed and cointegration tests have been used. Finally, DOLS estimation method has been used to find out long run relationship. Model results show that renewable electricity production has negative and significant effects on the carbon emmissions and results supported the validity of Environmenal Kuznets Curve hypothesis for Turkey.

Keywords

• Structural Breaks,Cointegration,Environmental Kuznets Curve,Renewable Energy

References

1. Agras, J., & Chapman, D. (1999). A Dynamic Approach to the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis. Ecological Economics. 28(2). 267-277.
2. Ahmed, K., & Long, W. (2012). Environmental Kuznets Curve and Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis. Procedia Economics and Finance. 1. 4-13. doi: 10.1016/S2212-5671(12)00003-2.
3. Akbostanci, E., Türüt-Aşık, S. & Tunç, İ. (2009). The Relationship Between Income and Environment in Turkey: Is There an Environmental Kuznets Curve?. Energy Policy. 37. 861-867. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.09.088.
4. Ang, J. B. (2007). CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption, and Output in France. Energy Policy. 35(10). 4772-4778. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2007.03.032
5. Apergis, N., & Payne, J. E. (2009). Energy Policy. 37(8). 3282-3286. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2009.03.048.
6. Arı, A. & Zeren, F. (2011). CO2 Emisyonu ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Panel Veri Analizi. Celal Bayer Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi. 18(2). 37-47. www2.bayar.edu.tr/yonetimekonomi/dergi/pdf/C18S22011/37_47.pdf
7. Azam, M., & Khan, A. Q. (2016). Testing the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: A Comparative Empirical Study for Low, Lower Middle, Upper Middle and High Income Countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 63. 556-567. doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2016.05.052.
8. Baek, J., Cho, Y., & Koo, W. W. (2009). The Environmental Consequences of Globalization: A Country-Specific Time-Series Analysis. Ecological Economics. 68(8). 2255-2264. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.02.021.

9. Başar, S. & Temurlenk, M.S. (2007). Çevreye Uyarlanmış Kuznets Eğrisi: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Atatürk Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi. 21(1). 1-12. dergipark.ulakbim.gov.tr/atauniiibd/article/download/1025003715/1025003544.
10. Bilgili, F., Koçak, E., & Bulut, Ü. (2016). The Dynamic Impact of Renewable Energy Consumption on Co2 Emissions: A Revisited Environmental Kuznets Curve Approach. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 54. 838-845. doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2015.10.080.
11. Bölük, G., & Mert, M. (2014). Fossil & Renewable Energy Consumption, GHGs (Greenhouse Gases) and Economic Growth: Evidence From a Panel of EU (European Union) Countries. Energy. 74. 439-446. doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2014.07.008.
12. Bölük, G., & Mert, M.. (2015). The Renewable Energy, Growth and Environmental Kuznets Curve in Turkey: an ARDL Approach. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 52. 587-595. doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2015.07.138.
13. Çağlar, A., E. (2015). Yapısal Kırılmalı Birim Kök Testlerinin Küçük Örneklem Özelliklerinin Karşılaştırılması. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü. Yüksek Lisans Tezi.
14. Çağlar, M. (2006). Dünya ve Türkiye’de Yenilenebilir Enerji Kaynakları. Türkiye 10. Enerji Kongresi. 1-21. http://www.dektmk.org.tr/pdf/enerji_kongresi_10/mehmetcaglar.pdf
15. Dam, M. M., Karakaya E. & Bulut, Ş. (2014). Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi ve Türkiye: Amprik Bir Analiz. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Eyi Özel Sayısı. 85-96.
16. De Bruyn, S. M., Van den Bergh, J. C. J. M., & Opschoor, J. B. (1996). Economic Growth and Patterns of Emissions-Reconsidering the Empirical Basis of Environmental Kuznet Curves. http://dare.ubvu.vu.nl/handle/1871/10943.
17. Dickey, D.A. & Fuller, W.A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 7(4). 427-431. doi: 10.2307/2286348.
18. Dickey, D.A. & Fuller, W.A. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society. 49(4). 1057-1072. doi: 10.2307/1912517.
19. Dinda, S. (2004). Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: A Survey. Ecological Economics. 49/4. 431-455. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2004.02.011.
20. Dinda, S., Coondoo, D., & Pal, M. (2000). Air Quality and Economic Growth: an Empirical Study. Ecological Economics. 34(3). 409-423. doi: 10.1016/S0921-8009(00)00179-8.
21. Elliot, G. vd. (1996). Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root. Econometrica. 64. 813-836. doi: 10.3386/t0130.
22. Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W. J. (1987). Cointegration and Error-Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing. Econometrica. 66. 251-276. doi: 10.2307/1913236.
23. Fodha, M., & Zaghdoud, O. (2010). Economic Growth and Pollutant Emissions in Tunisia: An Empirical Analysis of the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Energy Policy. 38(2) 1150-1156. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.11.002.
24. Gregory, A. W. & Hansen, B. E. (1996). Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts. Journal of Econometrics. 70. 99–126. doi: 10.1016/0304-4076(69)41685-7.
25. Grossman, G. M., & Krueger, A. B. (1991). Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement. NBER Working Paper. No. 3914. doi: 10.3386/w3914.
26. Grossman, G.M., & Krueger, A.B. (1995). Economic Growth And The Environment. Q. J. Econ. 110. 353–378. doi: 10.3386/w4634.
27. Güriş, S. & Elif T. (2011). Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisinin Geçerliliğinin Panel Veri Modelleriyle Analizi. Trakya Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi. 13(2). 173-190.
28. Haisheng, Y., Jia, J., Yongzhang, Z., & Shugong, W. (2005). The Impact on Environmental Kuznets Curve by Trade and Foreign Direct Investment in China. Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment. 3(2). 14-19. doi: 10.1080/10042857.2005.10677410.
29. Halicioglu, F. (2009). An Econometric Study of CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption, Income and Foreign Trade in Turkey. Energy Policy. 37(3). 1156-1164. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2008.11.012.
30. Hatemi-J, A. (2008). Tests for Cointegration with Two Unknown Regime Shifts with an Application to Financial Market Integration. Empirical Economics. 35. 497-505. doi: 10.1007/s00181-007-0175-9.
31. Iwata, H., Okada, K., & Samreth, S. (2010). Empirical Study on the Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO2 in France: the Role of Nuclear Energy. Energy Policy. 38(8). 4057-4063. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2010.03.031.
32. Jalil, A., & Mahmud, S. F. (2009). Environment Kuznets Curve for CO2 Emissions: A Cointegration Analysis for China. Energy Policy. 37(12). 5167-5172. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2009.07.044.
33. Kim, H. S., & Baek, J. (2011). The Environmental Consequences of Economic Growth Revisited. Economics Bulletin. 31(2). 1-13. http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2011/Volume31/EB-11-V31-I2-P113.pdf.
34. Kuznets, S. (1955). Economic Growth and Income Inequality. American Economic Review. 49 1-28. http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/1811581.pdf.
35. Kwiatkowski, D., P.C.B. Phillips, P. Schmidl, & Y. Shin. (1992). Testing The Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against The Alternative of A Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have A Unit Root?. Journal of Econometrics. 54. 159-178. doi:10.1016/0304-4076(92)90104-Y.
36. Lau, L. S., Choong, C. K., & Eng, Y. K. (2014). Investigation of the Environmental Kuznets Curve for Carbon Emissions in Malaysia: Do Foreign Direct Investment and Trade Matter?. Energy Policy. 68. 490-497. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2014.01.002.
37. Lise, W., & Van Montfort, K., (2007). Energy Consumption and GDP in Turkey: Is There a Co‐Integration Relationship?. Energy Economics. 29(6). 1166-1178. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2006.08.010.
38. Managi, S., & Jena, P. R. (2008). Environmental Productivity and Kuznets Curve in India. Ecological Economics. 65(2) 432-440. doi: g/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2007.07.011.
39. Mert, M., & Bölük, G. (2016). Do Foreign Direct Investment and Renewable Energy Consumption Affect the CO2 Emissions? New Evidence from a Panel ARDL Approach to Kyoto Annex Countries. Environ Sci Pollut Res. doi: 10.1007/s11356-016-7413-7.
40. Narayan, P.K. & Popp, S. (2010). A New Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks in Level and Slope at Unknown Time. J. Appl. Statatistic. 37(9). 1425–1438. doi: 10.1080/02664760903039883.
41. Nelson, C.R. & Plosser, C.I. (1982). Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series. Journal of Monetary Economics. 10. 139-162.
42. Ng, S. & Perron, P. (1995). Unit Root Tests in ARMA Models with Data Dependent Methods for the Selection of the Truncation Lag. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 90(429). 268-281.
43. Panayotou, T. (1993). Empirical Tests and Policy Analysis of Environmental Degradation at Different Stages of Economic Development. ILO Technology and Employment Programme Working Paper. WP238.
44. Perron, P., (1989). The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis. Econometrica. 57(6). 1361-1401. doi: 10.2307/1913712.
45. Phillips, P. C. (1987). Time Series Regression with a Unit Root. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society. 277-301. doi: 10.2307/1913237.
46. Phillips, P. & Perron, P. (1988). Testing For A Unit Root in Time Series Regression. Biometrica. 75(2). 335-346. doi: 10.1093/biomet/75.2.335.
47. Saboori, B., Sulaiman, J., & Mohd, S. (2012). Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions in Malaysia: a Cointegration Analysis of the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Energy Policy. 51. 184-191. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.08.065.
48. Selden, T. M., & Song, D. (1994). Environmental Quality and Development: Is There a Kuznets Curve for Air Pollution Emissions?. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management. 27(2). 147-162. doi:10.1006/jeem.1994.1031.
49. Shahbaz, M., Mutascu, M., & Azim, P. (2013). Environmental Kuznets Curve in Romania and the Role of Energy Consumption. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 18. 165-173. doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2012.10.012.
50. Soytas, U., Sari, R., & Ewing, B. T. (2007). Energy Consumption, Income, and Carbon Emissions in the United States. Ecological Economics. 62(3). 482-489. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2006.07.009.
51. Stern, D. I., (2004). The Rise and Fall of the Environmental Kuznets Curve. World Development. 32(8). 1419-1439. doi: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2004.03.004.
52. Stern, D. I., Common, M. S., & Barbier, E. B. (1996). Economic Growth and Environmental Degradation: the Environmental Kuznets Curve and Sustainable Development. World Development. 24(7). 1151-1160. doi:10.1016/0305-750X(96)00032-0.
53. Stock, J.H. & Watson M. (1993). A Simple Estimator Of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems. Econometrica. 61. 783-820. doi:
54. Suri, V., & Chapman, D. (1998). Economic Growth, Trade and Energy: Implications for the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Ecological Economics. 25(2). 195-208. doi: 10.1016/S0921-8009(97)00180-8.
55. WWF, (2011). Yenilenebilir Enerji Geleceği ve Türkiye. WWF Raporu. http://awsassets.wwftr.panda.org/downloads/wwftr_yenilenebilirenerjigelecegiveturkiye.pdf.
56. Zivot, E. & Andrews D.W.K. (1992). Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock and the Unit Root Hypothesis. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics. 10(3). 251-270. doi: 10.2307/1391541.