Haavelmo Hipotezinin Geçerliliği: Türkiye Örneği

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye için Haavelmo Hipotezinin geçerliliği 1986-2015 yılları kapsamında test edilmiştir. Sermaye girişleri ile yurt içi tasarruflar arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkinin tespitinde ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımından yararlanılmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki dinamik ilişki Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi ile araştırılmıştır. ARDL analizi sonuçları Türkiye için Haavelmo Hipotezinin geçerliliğini desteklemektedir. Bir diğer ifade ile sermaye girişleri yurt içi tasarrufları azaltmaktadır. Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi sonuçları portföy yatırımları ile iç tasarruflar arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığına işaret etmektedir.

Keywords

• Haavelmo Hipotezi,Yabancı Sermaye,Yurt İçi Tasarruf,ARDL

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