In this study, sector-based relationships between
confidence indices and stock exchange indices are investigated for January
2011-June 2019 period. Monthly data sets on financial service confidence index,
service confidence index, construction confidence index, retail trade
confidence, and stock market indices are firstly analyzed by Hacker and
Hatemi-J (2006) test. Secondly, they are examined in terms of asymmetric
causality relationship with Hatemi-J (2012) test. According to the findings
obtained as a result of the tests; the existence of a symmetric causality
relationship between the sectoral confidence indices and related Istanbul Stock
Exchange (ISE) sector indices could not be identified in Turkey. However, an
asymmetric causality relationship is found between these variables. In other
words, while there is no direct causal relationship between sectoral confidence
indices and stock market sector indices, there is a causality relationship
through the components of these variables.
Key Words: Confidence Index, Stock Exchange Sector Index,
Symmetric Causality, Asymmetric Causality
JEL Classification: G19, G23, G40
In this study, sector-based relationships between
confidence indices and stock exchange indices are investigated for January
2011-June 2019 period. Monthly data sets on financial service confidence index,
service confidence index, construction confidence index, retail trade
confidence, and stock market indices are firstly analyzed by Hacker and
Hatemi-J (2006) test. Secondly, they are examined in terms of asymmetric
causality relationship with Hatemi-J (2012) test. According to the findings
obtained as a result of the tests; the existence of a symmetric causality
relationship between the sectoral confidence indices and related Istanbul Stock
Exchange (ISE) sector indices could not be identified in Turkey. However, an
asymmetric causality relationship is found between these variables. In other
words, while there is no direct causal relationship between sectoral confidence
indices and stock market sector indices, there is a causality relationship
through the components of these variables.
Key Words: Confidence Index, Stock Exchange Sector Index,
Symmetric Causality, Asymmetric Causality
JEL Classification: G19, G23, G40
Bu çalışmada
Ocak 2011-Haziran 2019 dönemi için, güven ve borsa endeksleri arasındaki
sektörel bazlı ilişkiler araştırılmaktadır. Finansal hizmet güven endeksi,
hizmet sektörü güven endeksi, inşaat sektörü güven endeksi, perakende ticaret
sektörü güven ve borsa endeksleri değişkenlerine ait aylık veriler, ilgili
dönemde ilk olarak, Hacker ve Hatemi-J (2006) testiyle simetrik nedensellik, ikinci olarak, Hatemi-J (2012) testiyle
asimetrik nedensellik ilişkisi açılarından incelenmiştir. Yapılan testler
sonucunda edinilen bulgulara göre; Türkiye’de sektörel güven endeksleri ile
ilgili Borsa İstanbul (BİST) sektör endeksleri arasında simetrik bir
nedensellik ilişkinin varlığı tespit edilememiştir. Buna karşın, bu değişkenler
arasında asimetrik bir nedensellik ilişkisi saptanmıştır. Diğer bir ifadeyle,
sektörel güven endeksleri ile borsa sektör endeksleri arasında doğrudan bir
nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmazken, bu değişkenlerin bileşenleri üzerinden bir
nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmaktadır.
Anahtar Kelimeler: Güven Endeksi, Borsa Sektör Endeksi,
Simetrik Nedensellik, Asimetrik Nedensellik
JEL Sınıflandırması: G19, G23, G40
Primary Language | Turkish |
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Journal Section | Articles |
Authors | |
Publication Date | December 25, 2019 |
Published in Issue | Year 2019 |