Gelişmekte Olan Piyasa Ekonomilerinde İhracatın Dinamikleri

Year 2012, Volume: 19 Issue: 1, 19 - 33, 01.03.2012

Asuman KOÇ Yurtkur Arzu TAY Bayramoğlu

Abstract

Keywords

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Gelişmekte Olan Piyasa Ekonomilerinde İhracatın Dinamikleri

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, 1994:1-2009:1 arası çeyreklik veriler kullanılarak gelişmekte olan piyasa ekonomilerinde ihracatın belirleyicileri dengeli panel veri yöntemi ile analiz edilmektedir. Temel makroekonomik teoride, ihracat ile reel döviz kuru ve yurtiçi gelir arasında doğrusal ve pozitif bir ilişki bulunmaktadır. Buradan hareketle ihracatın yurtiçi gelirden bağımsız olduğu da anlaşılmaktadır. Aynı zamanda yerel fiyatlarda bir artış reel döviz kurunda düşüşe neden olmaktadır. Bu nedenle enflasyon artışı ihracatı negatif etkilemektedir. Teoriye ilaveten, ithalatın uluslar arası entegre ekonomilerde ihracat için önemli bir faktör olduğu açıkça görülmektedir. Bu çalışmada makroekonomik teori test edilmektedir. Ampirik sonuçlar reel döviz kuru, yurtiçi gelir, ithalat ve enflasyon oranının ihracat için önemli değişkenler olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır

Keywords

İhracat, Reel Döviz Kuru, Panel Veri Yöntemi

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• Appendix 1: The Anaysis of Autocorrelation GDP AC 346 INF AC 661 346 064 000 PC 661 90 000 Lag Lag 055 000 257 0.318 54 000 Lag 055 000 078 126 93 000 Lag 893 000 067 046 45 000 CA/GDP AC 451 RER AC 194 451 50 000 PC 194 688 000 Lag Lag 84 000 001 0.038 688 000 Lag 22 000 0.099 0.095 082 000 Lag 24 000 0.064 0.027 350 000 IMP AC 245 RESİD AC 0.138 245 040 000 PC 0.138 457 001 Lag Lag 912 000 0.278 0.303 305 000 Lag 651 000 0.063 0.173 479 000 Lag 851 000 377 284 23 000