Türkiye’de Politik İş Çevrimleri: Mali Bir Yaklaşım

Year 2013, Volume: 20 Issue: 1, 245 - 262, 01.03.2013

Mesut Karakaş

Abstract

Politik iş çevrimi araştırmaları yalın iş çevrimi araştırmalarına alternatif olarak doğmuştur. Politik iş çevrimleri alanındaki araştırmalar seçmenlerin seçim dönemlerinde manipüle edilip, edilmediği üzerine yoğunlaşmaktadır. Ayrıca, politikacıların tekrar seçilmek için kullandıkları metodlar açığa çıkarılmaktadır. Bu makalede, Türkiye’de fırsatçı politik iş çevrimlerinin olup, olmadığına cevap aranmaya çalışılmıştır. Araştırmamız Türkiye’deki durumu belirlemek için mali politikalara odaklanmıştır. Politik iş çevrimleri ve mali değişkenler arasındaki ilişkileri keşfetmek için ARMA bağlamında basit ama güçlü zaman serisi modelleri kullanılmıştır. Ampirik sonuçlar Türkiye’de mükemmele yakın politik iş çevrimlerinin olduğunu göstermektedir.

Keywords

Politik iş çevrimleri; Zaman serisi analizi; Türkiye Politik Ekonomisi

Türkiye’de Politik İş Çevrimleri: Mali Bir Yaklaşım

Abstract

Political business cycle studies have arisen as alternatives to pure business cycle studies. The studies in the political business cycle area mainly try to answer the question that whether the voters are manipulated in election periods or not. Also, the methods which the politicians use to be re-elected are uncovered. In this paper, we ask the question whether there are opportunistic political business cycles in Turkey or not. Our study focuses on the fiscal policies to discover the Turkish case. We use simple but powerful time series models in ARMA context to discover the relationships between political business cycles and fiscal variables. Empirical results show that there are quite perfect opportunistic political business cycles in Turkey.

Keywords

Political business cycles; Time series analysis; Turkish political economy

References

• ALESINA, Alberto (1987), “Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-party System as a Repeated Game”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 102, 651-678.
• ALESINA, Alberto (1988), “Credibility and Policy convergence in a Two-party System with Rational Voters”, American Economic Review, 78, 796-805.
• ALESINA, Alberto, ROUBINI, Nouriel and Gerald D. COHEN (1992), Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy, MIT Press, Cambridge.
• ALESINA, Alberto and Nouriel ROUBINI (1992), “Political cycles in OECD Economies”, Review of Economic Studies, 59, 663-688.
• ASUTAY, Mehmet (2004), “Searching for Opportunistic Political Business Cycles in Turkey”, Paper presented in European Public Choice Society.
• AYLAR İTİBARİYLE KONSOLİDE BÜTÇE VE GELİR GERÇEKLEŞMELERİ (1957-1993), Ankara Üniversitesi Basımevi.
• BERUMENT, Hakan and Jac C. HECKELMAN (1998), “Political Business Cycles and Endogenous Elections”, Southern Economic Journal, 64(4), 987-1000.
• DRAZEN, Allan (2000a), Political Economy in Macroeconomics, Princeton University Press, Nj. DRAZEN, Allan (2000b), “The Political Business Cycle after 25 Years”, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 15, 75-117.
• EVDS CENTRAL BANK OF TURKEY, http://evds.tcmb.gov.tr/ FAIR, Ray C. (1978), “The Effects of Economic Events on Votes for President”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 60, 159-172.
• GRIER, Kevin B. (1989), “On the Existence of a Political Monetary Cycle”, American Journal of Political Science, 33, 376-389.
• HAYNES, Stephen E. and Joe A. STONE (1989), “Political Models of the Business Cycle Should be Reviewed”, Economic Inquiry, 28, 442-465.
• HIBBS, Douglas A. (1977), “Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy”, American Political Science Review, 71, 1467-1487.
• JOHNSTON, Jack and John DINARDO (1997), Econometric Methods, McGraw-Hill.
• KEECH, William R. and Kyoungsan PAK (1989), “Electoral Cycles and Budgetary Growth in Veterans’ Benefit Programs”, American Journal of Political Science, 33, 901-911.
• KRAMER, Gerald H. (1971), “Short-term Fluctuations in US Voting Behavior, 1896-1964”, American Political Science Review, 65, 131-143.
• KUZU, Yasemin (2003), “Political Business Cycle in the Turkish Economy:1977-2001”, METU Conference in Economics VII September 6-9, 2003, Ankara, Turkey.
• NORDHAUS, William D. (1975), “The Political Business Cycle”, Review of Economic Studies, 42, 169-190.
• ROGOFF, Kenneth and Anne SIBERT (1988), “Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles”, Review of Economic Studies, 55, 1-16.
• ROGOFF, Kenneth (1990), “Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles”, American Economic Review, 80, 21SEZGİN, Şennur (2007), “Türkiye’de Politik Konjonktürel Dalgalanmalar: 1950-2003 Dönemi”, Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 62(2), 136-154.
• TUFTE, Edward R. (1975), “Determinants of the Outcomes of Midterm Congressional Elections”, American Political Science Review, 69, 812-826.
• TUFTE, Edward R. (1978), Political Control of the Economy, Princeton University Press, Princeton, Nj.
• TUTAR, İbrahim and Aysit TANSEL (2000), “Political Business Cycles, Institutional Structure and Budget Deficits in Turkey”, Paper presented in Metu Conference in Economics.
• TÜRKİYE SEÇİMLERİ, http://www.belgenet.net/ WILLIAMS, John T. (1990), “The political Manipulation of Macroeconomic Policy”, American Political Science Review, 84,767-795.