Türkiye’de Bütçe Dengesi ve Finans Hesabı Dengesi Arasında Bir İlişki Var Mı?(Is There A Relationship Between The Budget Balance And Financial Account Balance In Turkey?)

Year 2015, Volume: 22 Issue: 2, 651 - 662, 12.01.2016

Taner Turan

https://doi.org/10.18657/yecbu.16172

Abstract

Bütçe dengesi ve diğer makroekonomik değişkenler arasındaki ilişki uzun zamandan beri iktisatçıların ilgisini çekmiştir. Bu kapsamda bütçe dengesi ile finans hesabı dengesi arasında da bir ilişki olabileceği ileri sürülmüştür. Teorik olarak bütçe dengesi ve finans hesabı dengesinin değişik kanallarla birbirlerini etkilemeleri mümkündür. Bu çalışmada Türkiye için 1975-2014 dönemi verileri kullanılarak merkezi yönetim bütçe dengesi ve finans hesabı dengesi arasındaki ilişki hem eşbütünleşme hem de nedensellik testleri yardımıyla incelenmiştir. Değişkenlerin farklı bütünleşme derecelerine sahip olmaları nedeniyle ARDL yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. ARDL yaklaşımına göre bütçe dengesi ve finans hesabı dengesi arasında bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin olmadığı anlaşılmışır. Ayrıca söz konusu değişkenler arasında bir Granger nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığı Toda-Yamamoto yöntemiyle test edilmiş ve bu değişkenler arasında iki yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

The relationship between the government budget balance and other macroeconomic variables has drawn attention from economists for a long time. In this context it is argued that there would be a relation between the budget balance and financial account balance. Theory suggests that the budget balance and financial account balance would affect each other through different channels. This paper examines the relationship between the central government budget balance and financial account balance in Turkey by using annual data over the period 1975-2014 and employing ARDL approach to co-integration and Toda-Yamamoto approach to test for Granger causality. ARDL bounds testing results indicate that there is no long run relationship between the budget balance and financial account balance during the period examined. However, Granger causality tests suggest that there is a bi-directional causality between the budget balance and financial account balance.

Keywords

Bütçe dengesi, finans hesabı dengesi, eşbütünleşme ilişkisi, nedensellik

References

• Aisen, A., Hauner, D. (2008). Budget deficits and interest rates: A fresh perspective. IMF Working Paper WP/08/42. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2008/wp0842.pdf
• Akkaya, Y., Gürkaynak, R. S. (2012). Cari açık, bütçe dengesi, finansal istikrar ve para politikası: Heyecanlı bir dönemin izi. İktisat, İşletme ve Finans 27(315), 93-119. DOI: 10.3848/iif.2012.315.9319
• Aksu, H., Başar, S. (2009). Türkiye için ikiz açıklar hipotez’inin tahmini: Bir sınır testi yaklaşımı. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 64(4), 1-14. http://www.politics.ankara.edu.tr/dergi/pdf/64/4/3_Aksu_Basar.pdf
• Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Payesteh, S. (1994). Do Budget Deficts Cause Capital Inflows? Evidence from the United States. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 34(1), 63- 74. doi:10.1016/1062-9769(94)90053-1
• Barro, R. J. (1987). Government spending, interest rates, prices, and budget deficits in the United Kingdom, 1701-1918. Journal of Monetary Economics, 20, 221-247. doi:10.1016/0304- 3932(87)90015-8
• Bayrak,M., Esen, Ö. (2012). Bütçe açıklarının cari işlemler dengesi üzerine etkileri: İkiz açıklar hipotezinin Türkiye açısından değerlendirilmesi. Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 23(82), 23-49. http://ekonomikyaklasim.org/pdfs2/EYD_V23_N82_A02.pdf
• Cebula, R. J. (2003). Budget deficits and interest rates in Germany. International Advances in Economics Research, 9(1), 64-68. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF02295302
• Cebula, R. J., Koch, J. V. (1994). Federal budget deficits, interest rates and international capital flows: A further note. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 34(1), 117-120. doi:10.1016/1062-9769(94)90057-4
• Cebula, R. J. (1997). The Impact of Net International Capital Inflows on Nominal Long-Term Interest Rates in France. Atlantic Economic Journal, 25 (2), 179-190. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2FBF02298384
• Engle, R. F., Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing. URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1913236
• Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276.
• Erden, L., Çağatay, O. (2011). Türkiye’de cari işlemler ve sermaye hesapları arasındaki ilişki. H.Ü. İktisadi http://www.iibfdergi.hacettepe.edu.tr/article/viewFile/5000113471/5000105646
• Erdoğan, S., Yıldırım D.Ç. (2014). The relationship between the budget deficit and current account deficit in Turkey. Emerging Markets Journal, 3(3), 81-86. DOI 10.5195/emaj.2014.52
• Evans, P. (1987). Do budget deficits raise nominal interest rates?: Evidence from six countries. Journal of Monetary Economics, 20(2), 281-300. doi:10.1016/0304-3932(87)90017-1
• Evans, P. (1985). Do large deficits produce high interest rates? The American Economic Review, 75(1), 68-87. URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1812704
• Fry, M. J., Claessens, S., Burridge, P., Blanchet, M.-C. (1995). Foreign direct investment, other capital flows, and current account deficits, what causes what? The World Bank International Economics Department, Debt and International Finance Division, Policy Research Working Paper, No: 1527. wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/IW3P/IB/1995/10/01/000009265 _3961019151844/Rendered/PDF/multi_page.pdf http://www
• Gale, W. G., Orszag, P.R. (2003).Economic effects of sustained budget deficits. Brookings Research Papers, http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2003/07/17budgetdeficit-gale.
• Granger, C.W.J. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1912791
• Gupta, K. L. (1989). Budget deficits and interest rates in the United States. Public Choice, 60(1), 87- 92. http://www.jstor.org/stable/30024985
• Hsing, Y. (2010). The government debt and long-term interest rate: Application of the loanable funds model to Greece. Journal of Economic Integration, 25(4), 722- 733. http://www.jstor.org/stable/23000956
• Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3) 231-254. doi:10.1016/0165 1889(88)90041-3
• Johansen, S., Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration: With Applications to the Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of
• Economics and Statistics, 52(2) 169-210. DOI: 10.1111/j.1468
• 1990.mp52002003.x
• Khalid, A. M., Guan, T. W. (1999). Causality tests of budget and current account deficits: Cross- country comparisons. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs001810050062
• Empirical Economics, 24, 389-402.
• Kılavuz E., Dumrul, Y. (2012). İkiz açıklar hipotezinin geçerliliği: Teori ve uygulama. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 26(3-4), 239-58. http://e- dergi.atauni.edu.tr/atauniiibd/article/viewFile/1025007401/1025006983
• Kumhof, M., Laxton, D. (2013). Fiscal deficits and current account deficits. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 37, 2062-2082. doi:10.1016/j.jedc.2013.05.001
• Kuştepeli, Y. R. (2001). An empirical investigation of the Feldstein chain for Turkey. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi http://www.deu.edu.tr/userweb/yesim.kustepeli/dosyalar/fakultedergisi.pdf Fakültesi
• Dergisi, 2(1). 99-108.
• Lau, E., Fu, N. (2011). Financial and current account interrelationship: An empirical test. Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, 6(15), 34- 42. http://www.jaes.reprograph.ro/articles/spring2011/LauE_FuNelson.pdf
• Laubach, T. (2009). New evidence on the interest rate effects of budget deficits and debt. Journal of the European Economic Assocation, 7(4), 858-885. DOI: 10.1162/JEEA.2009.7.4.858
• Makin, A. J., Narayan, P. K. (2013). Re-examining the ‘Twin Deficit Hypothesis’: Evidence from Australia. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00181-012-0628-7
• Marinheiro, C. F. (2008). Ricardian equivalence, twin deŞcits, and the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle in Egypt. Journal of Policy Modeling, 30, 1041-1056. doi:10.1016/j.jpolmod.2007.12.001
• Merza, E., Alawin, M, Bashayreh, A. (2012). The relationship between current account and government budget balance: The case of Kuwait. International Journal of Humanities and Social Science, http://www.ijhssnet.com/journals/Vol_2_No_7_April_2012/19.pdf 2(7), 168-177.
• Miller, S. M., Russek, F.S. (1989). Are the Twin Deficits Really Related? Contemporary Economic Policy, 7(4), 91-115. DOI: 10.1111/j.1465-7287.1989.tb00577.
• Murthy, V. N. R., Phillips, J.M. (1996). The relationship between budget deficits and capital inflows: Further econometric evidence. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 36(4), 485-494. doi:10.1016/S1062-9769(96)90047-2
• Pesaran, H. M., Shin, Y., Smith, R.J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. DOI: 10.1002/jae.616
• Saher, N., Herbert, M. (2010). Response of long-term interest rate to fiscal imbalance: Evidence from Pakistan, SPB Research Bulletin, 6(1).
• Salvatore, D. (2006). Twin deficits in the G-7 countries and global structural imbalances. Journal of Policy Modeling, 28, 701-712. doi:10.1016/j.jpolmod.2006.06.003
• Tang, T. C. (2014). Fiscal deficit, trade deficit, and financial account deficit: Triple deficits hypothesis with the U.S. experience. Monash University Department of Economics, Discussion Paper, 06/14. https://business.monash.edu/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/339430/fiscal_deficit,_tra de_deficit,_and_financial_account_deficit_triple_deficits_hypothesis_with_the_u.s._exper ience.pdf
• Toda, H. Y., Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1-2), 225-250. doi:10.1016/0304- 4076(94)01616-8
• Togan, S., Berument, H. (2011). Cari işlemler dengesi, sermaye hareketleri ve krediler. Bankacılar Dergisi, 78, 3-21. https://www.tbb.org.tr/Dosyalar/Arastirma_ve_Raporlar/togan.pdf
• Turan, T. (2015). The causal relationship between current account and financial account balance in selected CEE countries. Yayınlanmamış çalışma.
• Ümit, Ö. A., Yıldırım, K. (2008). Twin deficits hypothesis. İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 23(267), 116- 132. DOI: 10.3848/iif.2008.267.4504
• Vamvoukas, G. A. (1999). The twin deficits phenomenon: Evidence from Greece. Applied Economics, 31(9), 1093-1100. DOI:10.1080/000368499323571
• Varol İyidoğan P., Erkam, S. (2013). İkiz açıklar hipotezi: Türkiye için ampirik bir inceleme (1987- 2005). Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 15, 39-48. http://www.journalagent.com/pausbed/pdfs/PAUSBED_2013_15_39_48.pdf
• Warnock, F. E., Warnock, V.C. (2009). International capital flows and U.S. interest rates. Journal of International Money and Finance,28, 903-919. doi:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2009.03.002
• Xie, Z., Chen, S.-W. (2014). Untangling the causal relationship between government budget and current account deŞcits in OECD countries: Evidence from bootstrap panel Granger causality. doi:10.1016/j.iref.2014.01.014
• Yan, H., Yang, C. (2008). Foreign capital inflows and the current account imbalance: Which causality direction? jei.org/upload/N255T51217X55463.pdf http://www.e
• Yan, H. (2005). Causal relationship between the current account and financial account. International Advances in Economic Research, 11(2), 149-162. DOI:10.1007/s11294-005-3012.y