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Toplam Faktör Verimliliği, Ekonomik Büyüme ve İhracat İlişkisi: Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Örneği

Year 2020, Volume: 27 Issue: 3, 495 - 510, 25.12.2020
https://doi.org/10.18657/yonveek.770977

Abstract

Toplam faktör verimliliği, ekonomik büyüme ve ihracat, özellikle gelişmekte olan ülke ekonomileri için önemli makroekonomik büyüklüklerdir. Bu çalışmada, bu üç büyüklük arasındaki ilişki Dünya Bankası’nın güncel gelir gruplandırma kriterine göre üst orta gelirli ülkeler grubunda yer alan 26 gelişmekte olan ülke için, 1990-2017 dönemi verileriyle incelenmiştir. Panel nedensellik analizinin kullanıldığı çalışmada, toplam faktör verimliliği ve ihracat arasında toplam faktör verimliliğinden ihracata doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Toplam faktör verimliliği ve ekonomik büyüme arasında da çift yönlü nedensellik tespit edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, gelişmekte olan ülkelerde toplam faktör verimliliğinin büyüme ve ihracatın başlıca nedenlerinden biri olduğu göstermektedir.

References

  • Abrigo, M. R., & Love, I. (2016). Estimation of Panel Vector Autoregression in Stata. The Stata Journal, Vol. 16, No. 3, 778-804
  • Ajmi, A. N., Aye, G. C., Balcilar, M., and Gupta, R. (2015). Causality Between Exports and Economic Growth in South Africa: Evidence From Linear and Nonlinear Tests. The Journal of Developing Areas, Vol. 49, No. 2, 163-181.
  • Akkoç, G. K., Akkoç, U. ve Yücel, Ö. F. (2018), BRICS-T Ülkelerinde Toplam Faktör Verimliliği ve Teknoloji Transferi. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, Cilt 21, 101-118.
  • Aktaş, C. (2009), Türkiye’nin İhracat, İthalat ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik Analizi, Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, Cilt 18, 2009/2, 35-47.
  • Alancıoğlu, E. ve Şit, M. (2019), BRICS Ekonomilerinde Toplam Faktör Verimliliği ile Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin Panel Veri Analizi: 2000-2016 Dönemi. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, Cilt 11, Sayı 20, 29-40.
  • Albiman, M. and Suleiman, N. N. (2016). The Relationship Among Export, Import, Capital Formation and Economic Growth in Malaysia. Journal of Global Economics, Vol. 4, No. 2, 2375-4389.
  • Aslan, A. ve Topcu, E. (2018). The Relationship Between Export and Growth: Panel Data Evidence From Turkish Sectors. Economies, Cilt 6, Sayı. 2, 22.
  • Awokuse, T. O. (2008). Trade Openness and Economic Growth: Is Growth Export-led or Import-led?. Applied economics, Vol. 40, No. 2, 161-173.
  • Bahar, D. (2017). Productivity is Key to Economic Growth: Why is it Slowing Down in Advanced Economies? https://www.brookings.edu, Erişim Tarihi: 15.06.2020
  • Bai, J. and Ng, S. (2004). A Panic Attack on Unit Root s and Cointegration, Econometrica, Vol. 42, No. 4, 1127-1177.
  • Bakari, S. (2017). The Relationship Between Export, Import, Domestic Investment and Economic Growth in Egypt: Empirical Analysis. Euro Economica, Vol. 36, No. 2, 34-43.
  • Bal, H., Çiftçi, H., İşcan, E. ve Serin, D. (2016). İhracata Dayalı Büyüme: Teknolojik Bakış The Export-Led Growth: A Technological View. International Conference on Eurasian Economies, Kaposvár-Hungary, 29-31 August 2016, Proceedings Book, Beykent University Publications, 311-316.
  • Bhattacharya, M. and Bhattacharya, S. N. (2016). International Trade and Economic Growth: Evidences From The BRICS. Journal of Applied Economics & Business Research, Vol. 6, No. 2, 150-160.
  • Breuer, J. B., Mcnown, R. and Wallace, M. (2002). Series‐specific Unit Root Tests with Panel Data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 64, No. 5, 527–546.
  • Chang, T., Simo-Kengne, B. D. and Gupta, R. (2013). The Causal Relationship between Exports and Economic Growth in the Nine Provinces of South Africa: Evidence from Panel-Granger Causality Test. International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies (IJEPEE), Vol. 6, No. 3, 2013, 296-310.
  • Chow, P. C. (1987). Causality Between Export Growth and Industrial Development: Empirial Evidence from the NICs. Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 26, No. 1, 55-63.
  • Ekanayake, E. M. (1999). Exports and Economic Growth in Asian Developing Countries: Cointegration and Error-correction Models. Journal of Economic Development, Vol. 24, No. 2, 43-56.
  • Giles, J.A. and Willams, C.L., (1999), “Export-led Growth: A Survey of the Empirical Literature and some Non-causality Results, The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Vol. 9, No. 3, 261-337.
  • Gömleksiz, M., Şahbaz, A. ve Mercan, B. (2017). Toplam Faktör Verimliliğinin Belirleyicileri Üzerine Ampirik Bir İnceleme: Seçilmiş OECD Ülkeleri Örneği. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt 12, Sayı 2, 65-82.
  • Granger, C. (1988). Causality, Cointegration and Control. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 12, (2-3), 551-559.
  • Güriş, B. (2018). Panel Vektör Otoregresif Modeller ve Panel Nedensellik. (Ed. Selahattin Güriş), Uygulamalı Panel Veri Ekonometrisi, İstanbul: DER Yayınları, 279-292.
  • Hacker, R. S. and Hatemi-J, A. (2003), How Productivity and Domestic Output are Related to Exports and Foreign Output in the Case of Sweden. Empirical Economics 28, 767-782.
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2002). Export Performance and Economic Growth Nexus in Japan: A Bootstrap Approach. Japan and The World Economy, Vol. 14, No. 1, 25-33.
  • İnal, A. (2009). Durağan Olmayan Paneller ve Bir Uygulama. Yayımlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi. Adana: Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Adana.
  • Jordaan, A. C. and Eita, J. H. (2007). Export and Economic Growth in Namibia: A Granger Causality Analysis. South African Journal of Economics, 75(3), 540-547.
  • Kim, S. and Lim, H. (2005). Dynamic Determinants of Korean Productivity Changes: With Emphasis on Trade. East Asian Economic Review, 9(2), 3-45.
  • Kim, S., Lim, H. and Park, D. (2009). Imports, Exports and Total Factor Productivity in Korea, Applied Economics, Vol. 41, No. 14, 1819-1834.
  • Konya, L. (2004). Export-led Growth, Growth-driven Export, Both or None? Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries. Applied Econometrics and International Development, Vol. 4, No. 1, 73-94.
  • Maddala G.S. and Wu, S. (1999). A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistic, Vol. 61, No. 1, 631-652.
  • Nordhaus, W. (2005). The Sources of The Productivity Rebound and The Manufacturing Employment Puzzle. NBER Working Paper, No. 11354, https://www.nber.org/papers, Erişim Tarihi: 20.06.2020
  • Pesaran, H. M. (2003). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0346.
  • Pesaran, H. M. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. IZA Discussion Paper, No. 1240.
  • Pesaran, H. M. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence, Journal of Applied Econometrics Vol. 22, No. 2, 265-312.
  • Paul, S. and Chowdhury, K. (1995). Export–led Growth Hypothesis: Some Empirical Testing. Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 2, No. 6, 177-179.
  • Ramos, F. F. R. (2001). Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in Portugal: Evidence From Causality and Cointegration Analysis. Economic Modelling, Vol. 18, No. 4, 613-623.
  • Rath, B. N. and Akram, V. (2017). Export Diversification and Total Factor Productivity Growth in Case of South Asian Region. Journal of Social and Economic Development, Vol. 19, No. 1, 196-210.
  • Santos, P. G., Ribeiro, A. P. and Carvalho, V. M. (2013). Export-led growth in Europe: Where and What to Export?. FEP Working Papers, No. 479.
  • Solow, R. M. (1956). A Contribution to The Theory of Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 70, No. 1, 65-94.
  • Şak, N. (2018). Panel Birim Kök Testleri. (Ed. Selahattin Güriş), Uygulamalı Panel Veri Ekonometrisi İstanbul: DER Yayınları, 259-314.
  • Thangavelu, S. M. and Rajaguru, G. (2004). Is There an Export or Import-led Productivity Growth in Rapidly Developing Asian Countries? A Multivariate VAR Analysis. Applied Economics, Vol. 36, No. 10, 1083-1093.
  • Trošt, M. and Bojnec, Š. (2016). Export-led Growth: The Case of The Slovenian and Estonian Economies. Post-Communist Economies, Vol. 28, No. 3, 373-383.
  • Uçak, H. ve Arısoy, İ. (2011). Türkiye Ekonomisinde Verimlilik, İhracat ve İthalat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisinin Analizi. Ege Akademik Bakış, Cilt 11, Sayı 4, 639-651.
  • Vergil, H. ve Abasız, T. (2008). Toplam Faktör Verimliliği, Hesaplanması ve Büyüme İlişkisi: Collins Bosworth Varyans Ayrıştırması. Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Sayı 16, 160-188.
  • World Bank (2020). https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups, Erişim Tarihi: 21.06.2020
  • Xu, Z. (1996). On The Causality Between Export Growth and GDP Growth: An Empirical Reinvestigation. Review of International Economics, 4(2), 172-184.
  • Yalçınkaya, Ö. (2018). Toplam Faktör Verimliliğinin Belirleyicileri: G-7 ve Seçilmiş Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomileri Üzerine Bir Uygulama (1992-2013). Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt 18, Sayı 3, 41-60.
  • Yapraklı, S. (2007). Causality Between Exports and Economic Growth: An Econometric Analysis on Turkey. METU Studies in Development, Cilt 34, Sayı 1, 97- 112.

The Relationship of Total Factor Productivity, Economic Growth and Exports: The Case of Developing Countries

Year 2020, Volume: 27 Issue: 3, 495 - 510, 25.12.2020
https://doi.org/10.18657/yonveek.770977

Abstract

Total factor productivity, economic growth and exports are important macroeconomic sizes, especially for developing economies. In this study, the relationship between these three sizes is analyzed with the data of 1990-2017 for 26 developing countries in the upper middle income countries group according to the current income grouping criteria of the World Bank. In the study in which panel causality analysis is used, one-way causality relationship is found between total factor productivity and exports from total factor productivity to exports. Bidirectional causality is also found between total factor productivity and economic growth. Findings indicate that, total factor productivity is one of the main causes of growth and exports in developing countries.
Key Words: Total Factor Productivity, Economic Growth, Exports, Panel Causality
JEL Classification: F43, O33, 047

References

  • Abrigo, M. R., & Love, I. (2016). Estimation of Panel Vector Autoregression in Stata. The Stata Journal, Vol. 16, No. 3, 778-804
  • Ajmi, A. N., Aye, G. C., Balcilar, M., and Gupta, R. (2015). Causality Between Exports and Economic Growth in South Africa: Evidence From Linear and Nonlinear Tests. The Journal of Developing Areas, Vol. 49, No. 2, 163-181.
  • Akkoç, G. K., Akkoç, U. ve Yücel, Ö. F. (2018), BRICS-T Ülkelerinde Toplam Faktör Verimliliği ve Teknoloji Transferi. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, Cilt 21, 101-118.
  • Aktaş, C. (2009), Türkiye’nin İhracat, İthalat ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik Analizi, Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, Cilt 18, 2009/2, 35-47.
  • Alancıoğlu, E. ve Şit, M. (2019), BRICS Ekonomilerinde Toplam Faktör Verimliliği ile Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin Panel Veri Analizi: 2000-2016 Dönemi. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, Cilt 11, Sayı 20, 29-40.
  • Albiman, M. and Suleiman, N. N. (2016). The Relationship Among Export, Import, Capital Formation and Economic Growth in Malaysia. Journal of Global Economics, Vol. 4, No. 2, 2375-4389.
  • Aslan, A. ve Topcu, E. (2018). The Relationship Between Export and Growth: Panel Data Evidence From Turkish Sectors. Economies, Cilt 6, Sayı. 2, 22.
  • Awokuse, T. O. (2008). Trade Openness and Economic Growth: Is Growth Export-led or Import-led?. Applied economics, Vol. 40, No. 2, 161-173.
  • Bahar, D. (2017). Productivity is Key to Economic Growth: Why is it Slowing Down in Advanced Economies? https://www.brookings.edu, Erişim Tarihi: 15.06.2020
  • Bai, J. and Ng, S. (2004). A Panic Attack on Unit Root s and Cointegration, Econometrica, Vol. 42, No. 4, 1127-1177.
  • Bakari, S. (2017). The Relationship Between Export, Import, Domestic Investment and Economic Growth in Egypt: Empirical Analysis. Euro Economica, Vol. 36, No. 2, 34-43.
  • Bal, H., Çiftçi, H., İşcan, E. ve Serin, D. (2016). İhracata Dayalı Büyüme: Teknolojik Bakış The Export-Led Growth: A Technological View. International Conference on Eurasian Economies, Kaposvár-Hungary, 29-31 August 2016, Proceedings Book, Beykent University Publications, 311-316.
  • Bhattacharya, M. and Bhattacharya, S. N. (2016). International Trade and Economic Growth: Evidences From The BRICS. Journal of Applied Economics & Business Research, Vol. 6, No. 2, 150-160.
  • Breuer, J. B., Mcnown, R. and Wallace, M. (2002). Series‐specific Unit Root Tests with Panel Data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 64, No. 5, 527–546.
  • Chang, T., Simo-Kengne, B. D. and Gupta, R. (2013). The Causal Relationship between Exports and Economic Growth in the Nine Provinces of South Africa: Evidence from Panel-Granger Causality Test. International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies (IJEPEE), Vol. 6, No. 3, 2013, 296-310.
  • Chow, P. C. (1987). Causality Between Export Growth and Industrial Development: Empirial Evidence from the NICs. Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 26, No. 1, 55-63.
  • Ekanayake, E. M. (1999). Exports and Economic Growth in Asian Developing Countries: Cointegration and Error-correction Models. Journal of Economic Development, Vol. 24, No. 2, 43-56.
  • Giles, J.A. and Willams, C.L., (1999), “Export-led Growth: A Survey of the Empirical Literature and some Non-causality Results, The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Vol. 9, No. 3, 261-337.
  • Gömleksiz, M., Şahbaz, A. ve Mercan, B. (2017). Toplam Faktör Verimliliğinin Belirleyicileri Üzerine Ampirik Bir İnceleme: Seçilmiş OECD Ülkeleri Örneği. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt 12, Sayı 2, 65-82.
  • Granger, C. (1988). Causality, Cointegration and Control. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 12, (2-3), 551-559.
  • Güriş, B. (2018). Panel Vektör Otoregresif Modeller ve Panel Nedensellik. (Ed. Selahattin Güriş), Uygulamalı Panel Veri Ekonometrisi, İstanbul: DER Yayınları, 279-292.
  • Hacker, R. S. and Hatemi-J, A. (2003), How Productivity and Domestic Output are Related to Exports and Foreign Output in the Case of Sweden. Empirical Economics 28, 767-782.
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2002). Export Performance and Economic Growth Nexus in Japan: A Bootstrap Approach. Japan and The World Economy, Vol. 14, No. 1, 25-33.
  • İnal, A. (2009). Durağan Olmayan Paneller ve Bir Uygulama. Yayımlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi. Adana: Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Adana.
  • Jordaan, A. C. and Eita, J. H. (2007). Export and Economic Growth in Namibia: A Granger Causality Analysis. South African Journal of Economics, 75(3), 540-547.
  • Kim, S. and Lim, H. (2005). Dynamic Determinants of Korean Productivity Changes: With Emphasis on Trade. East Asian Economic Review, 9(2), 3-45.
  • Kim, S., Lim, H. and Park, D. (2009). Imports, Exports and Total Factor Productivity in Korea, Applied Economics, Vol. 41, No. 14, 1819-1834.
  • Konya, L. (2004). Export-led Growth, Growth-driven Export, Both or None? Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries. Applied Econometrics and International Development, Vol. 4, No. 1, 73-94.
  • Maddala G.S. and Wu, S. (1999). A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistic, Vol. 61, No. 1, 631-652.
  • Nordhaus, W. (2005). The Sources of The Productivity Rebound and The Manufacturing Employment Puzzle. NBER Working Paper, No. 11354, https://www.nber.org/papers, Erişim Tarihi: 20.06.2020
  • Pesaran, H. M. (2003). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0346.
  • Pesaran, H. M. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. IZA Discussion Paper, No. 1240.
  • Pesaran, H. M. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence, Journal of Applied Econometrics Vol. 22, No. 2, 265-312.
  • Paul, S. and Chowdhury, K. (1995). Export–led Growth Hypothesis: Some Empirical Testing. Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 2, No. 6, 177-179.
  • Ramos, F. F. R. (2001). Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in Portugal: Evidence From Causality and Cointegration Analysis. Economic Modelling, Vol. 18, No. 4, 613-623.
  • Rath, B. N. and Akram, V. (2017). Export Diversification and Total Factor Productivity Growth in Case of South Asian Region. Journal of Social and Economic Development, Vol. 19, No. 1, 196-210.
  • Santos, P. G., Ribeiro, A. P. and Carvalho, V. M. (2013). Export-led growth in Europe: Where and What to Export?. FEP Working Papers, No. 479.
  • Solow, R. M. (1956). A Contribution to The Theory of Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 70, No. 1, 65-94.
  • Şak, N. (2018). Panel Birim Kök Testleri. (Ed. Selahattin Güriş), Uygulamalı Panel Veri Ekonometrisi İstanbul: DER Yayınları, 259-314.
  • Thangavelu, S. M. and Rajaguru, G. (2004). Is There an Export or Import-led Productivity Growth in Rapidly Developing Asian Countries? A Multivariate VAR Analysis. Applied Economics, Vol. 36, No. 10, 1083-1093.
  • Trošt, M. and Bojnec, Š. (2016). Export-led Growth: The Case of The Slovenian and Estonian Economies. Post-Communist Economies, Vol. 28, No. 3, 373-383.
  • Uçak, H. ve Arısoy, İ. (2011). Türkiye Ekonomisinde Verimlilik, İhracat ve İthalat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisinin Analizi. Ege Akademik Bakış, Cilt 11, Sayı 4, 639-651.
  • Vergil, H. ve Abasız, T. (2008). Toplam Faktör Verimliliği, Hesaplanması ve Büyüme İlişkisi: Collins Bosworth Varyans Ayrıştırması. Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Sayı 16, 160-188.
  • World Bank (2020). https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups, Erişim Tarihi: 21.06.2020
  • Xu, Z. (1996). On The Causality Between Export Growth and GDP Growth: An Empirical Reinvestigation. Review of International Economics, 4(2), 172-184.
  • Yalçınkaya, Ö. (2018). Toplam Faktör Verimliliğinin Belirleyicileri: G-7 ve Seçilmiş Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomileri Üzerine Bir Uygulama (1992-2013). Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt 18, Sayı 3, 41-60.
  • Yapraklı, S. (2007). Causality Between Exports and Economic Growth: An Econometric Analysis on Turkey. METU Studies in Development, Cilt 34, Sayı 1, 97- 112.
There are 47 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Hamza Çeştepe 0000-0003-1541-5703

Ersin Arslan This is me 0000-0001-6647-1962

Murat Yazıcı 0000-0002-9037-9901

Publication Date December 25, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020 Volume: 27 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Çeştepe, H., Arslan, E., & Yazıcı, M. (2020). Toplam Faktör Verimliliği, Ekonomik Büyüme ve İhracat İlişkisi: Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Örneği. Journal of Management and Economics, 27(3), 495-510. https://doi.org/10.18657/yonveek.770977