The Relationship Between Economic Policy Uncertainty, Tourism Receipts and The Exchange Rate: The Case of Turkiye

Year 2024, Volume: 31 Issue: 3, 477 - 490, 27.09.2024

Elif Hilal Nazlıoğlu

https://doi.org/10.18657/yonveek.1441935

Abstract

An important research question that has received much attention in recent years is the impact of global uncertainties on economic and financial indicators. Turkiye, which is a very appropriate example for the empirical analysis of the economic impact of uncertainty indicators, as it is designing policies to develop the tourism sector and make tourism receipts sustainable, has a fragile economy and is an emerging market economy. This study aims to examine the impact of global economic policy uncertainty and exchange rates on tourism receipts. In this regard, time series causality and cointegration analyses were conducted using monthly data for the period January 2012-September 2022. Cointegration analysis shows that in the long run, increases in global economic policy uncertainty reduce tourism receipts in Turkiye, while exchange rate appreciation increases tourism receipts. Causality analysis indicated that there was no information transfer between variables in the short run. These findings provide evidence that long-term policies to improve Turkiye's tourism infrastructure should take into account both global uncertainty and exchange rate dynamics.
Key Words: Economic Uncertainty, Tourism Receipts, Exchange Rate, Cointegration, Causality
JEL Classification: D89, F31, Z30

Keywords

Economic Uncertainty, Tourism Receipts, Exchange Rate, Cointegration, Causality

Ekonomik Politika Belirsizliği, Turizm Gelirleri ve Döviz Kuru Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Örneği

Abstract

Küresel belirsizliklerin ekonomik ve finansal göstergeler üzerindeki etkisi son yıllarda üzerine odaklanılan önemli bir araştırma sorusudur. Turizm sektörünü geliştirmek, turizm gelirlerini sürekli hale getirmek için politikalar tasarlayan, ekonomisi kırılgan bir yapıya sahip olan ve yükselen piyasa ekonomisi özelliği gösteren Türkiye, belirsizlik göstergelerinin ekonomik etkilerinin ampirik analizine oldukça uygun bir örnektir. Bu çalışma, küresel ekonomik politika belirsizliği ve döviz kurunun turizm gelirleri üzerindeki etkilerini incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu doğrultuda, Ocak 2012-Eylül 2022 dönemi aylık veriler kullanılarak, zaman serisi nedensellik ve eş bütünleşme analizleri yapılmıştır. Eşbütünleşme analizi, uzun dönemde küresel ekonomi politikası belirsizliğindeki artışın Türkiye’de turizm gelirlerini azalttığını, döviz kurundaki artışın turizm gelirlerini artırdığını göstermektedir. Nedensellik analizi, kısa dönemde değişkenler arasında bilgi transferi olmadığını işaret etmiştir. Bu sonuçlar, Türkiye turizm altyapısını geliştirmek amacıyla tasarlanan uzun vadeli politikaların hem küresel belirsizlik hem de kurları etkileyen dinamikleri dikkate alması gerekliliği yönünde kanıtlar içermektedir.
Anahtar Kelimeler: Ekonomik Politika Belirsizliği, Turizm Geliri, Döviz Kuru, Eşbütünleşme, Nedensellik
JEL Sınıflandırması: D89, F31, Z30

Keywords

Ekonomik Politika Belirsizliği, Turizm Geliri, Döviz Kuru, Eşbütünleşme, Nedensellik

Ethical Statement

Makalenin tüm süreçlerinde Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi'nin araştırma ve yayın etiği ilkelerine uygun olarak hareket edilmiştir.

Supporting Institution

yok

References

• Akadiri, S. S., Alola, A. A., and Uzuner, G. (2020). Economic Policy Uncertainty and Tourism: Evidence From The Heterogeneous Panel. Current Issues in Tourism, 23(20), 2507-2514. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2019.1687662
• Akdağ, S., Kılıç, İ., Gürlek, M., & Alola, A. A. (2023). Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Drive Outbound Tourism Expenditures in 20 Selected Destinations?. Quality & Quantity, 57(5), 4327-4337. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11135-022-01538-y
• Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., and Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131 (4), 1593–1636. http://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw024
• Bloom, N., M.A. Kose, and M. Terrones. (2013) Held Back by Uncertainty, Finance and Development. International Monetary Fund, Washington, 2013
• Carroll, S. S. (1996). Estimating The Uncertainty in Spatial Estimates of Areal Snow Water Equivalent. Hydrology Research, 27(5), 295-312. https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.1996.0011
• Cekin, S.E., Pradhan, A.K., Tiwari, A.K., and Gupta, R. (2020). Measuring Co-dependencies of Economic Policy Uncertainty in Latin American Countries Using Vine Copulas. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 76, 207-217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2019.07.004
• Dickey, D.A., and Fuller, W.A., (1979). Distribution of The Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Society, 75, 427–431. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531
• Dragouni, M., Filis, G., Gavriilidis, K. and Santamaria, S. (2016). Sentiment, Mood and Outbound Tourism Demand. Annals of Tourism Research, 60 (1), 80–96. http://dx.doi. org/10.1016/j.annals.2016.06.004
• Economic Policy Uncertainty, (2023). https://www.policyuncertainty.com/global_monthly.html
• Engle, R. F., and Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing. Econometrica,55, 251-276. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236
• Giavazzi, F. and McMahon, M. (2012). Policy Uncertainty and Household Savings. Review of Economics and Statistics, 94 (2), 517–531. https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00158
• Gozgor, G. and Demir, E. (2018). The Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Outbound Travel Expenditures. Journal of Competitiveness, 10(3), 5-15. https://doi.org/10.7441/joc.2018.03.01
• Gozgor, G., and Ongan, S. (2017). Economic Policy Uncertainty and Tourism Demand: Empirical Evidence from The USA. International Journal of Tourism Research, 19(1), 99-106. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2089
• Granger, C.W.J., (1969). Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods. Econometrica 37, 424–438. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912791
• Güney, P.Ö. (2020). Ekonomik Politika Belirsizliği ve Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı. Bankacılar Dergisi, 114, 3-17. https://www.tbb.org.tr/Content/Upload/dergiler/dosya/89/tbb_114.pdf#page=5
• Gürsoy, S. (2021). Ekonomik Politik Belirsizliğin Turizm Getirileri Etkisi: Türkiye’den Kanıtlar. Hacettepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 3(1), 28-43. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/husbdergi/issue/60365/852400
• Işık, C. Sirakaya-Turk, E. ve Ongan, S. (2020). Testing The Efficacy of The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index on Tourism Demand in USMCA: Theory and Evidence. Tourism Economics,26(8), 1344-1357. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816619888346
• Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P.C.B., Schmidt, P., and Shin, Y., (1992). Testing The Null Hypothesis of Stationary Against The Alternative of a Unit Root. Journal of Econometrics 54,159–178. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(92)90104-Y
• Korkmaz, Ö., ve Güngör, S. (2018). Küresel Ekonomi Politika Belirsizliğinin Borsa İstanbul’da İşlem Gören Seçilmiş Endeks Getirileri Üzerindeki Etkisi. Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 6(ICEESS’18), 211-219. https://doi.org/10.18506/anemon.452749
• Kök, D. ve Nazlıoğlu, E. H. (2020). Finansal Piyasalarda Asimetrik Nedensellik: BIST100, VIX ve Döviz Kuru Örneği. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, (55), 245-262. https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibf.659871
• Park, J. Y. (1992). Canonical Cointegrating Regressions. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 119-143. https://doi.org/10.2307/2951679
• Payne, J. E., Nazlioglu, S., Mervar, A., and Niroomand, F. (2023). Economic Policy Uncertainty, COVID-19, and Tourist Stays in Croatia: Evidence from a Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Modeling Approach. The International Trade Journal, 37(1), 7-26. https://doi.org/10.1080/08853908.2022.2134233
• Phillips, P. C. B., and Ouliaris, S. (1990). Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration. Econometrica, 58 (1), pp. 165-193. https://doi.org/10.2307/2938339
• Phillips, P. C., and Hansen, B. E. (1990). Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes. The Review of Economic Studies, 57(1), 99-125. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297545
• Singh, R., Das, D., Jana, R. K., and Tiwari, A. K. (2019). A Wavelet Analysis for Exploring the Relationship Between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Tourist Footfalls in the USA. Current Issues in Tourism, 22(15), 1789-1796. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2018.1445204
• Stock, J. H., and Watson, M. W. (1993). A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order İntegrated Systems. Econometrica: Journal Of The Econometric Society, 783-820. https://doi.org/10.2307/2951763
• Tsai, C. H., & Chen, C. W. (2011). The Establishment of a Rapid Natural Disaster Risk Assessment Model for the Tourism Industry. Tourism Management, 32(1), 158-171. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2010.05.015
• Tsui, W. H. K., Balli, F., Tan, D. T. W., Lau, O., and Hasan, M. (2018). New Zealand Business Tourism: Exploring the Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainties. Tourism Economics, 24(4), 386-417. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816617731387
• TUIK, (2023). https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Turizm-Istatistikleri-III.-Ceyrek:-Temmuz---Eylul,-2023-49604.
• Wu, T. P., and Wu, H. C. (2019). Causality Between European Economic Policy Uncertainty and Tourism Using Wavelet-Based Approaches. Journal of Travel Research, 58(8), 1347-1356. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287518803204
• Wu, T. P., and Wu, H. C. (2020). A Multiple and Partial Wavelet Analysis of the Economic Policy Uncertainty and Tourism Nexus in BRIC. Current Issues in Tourism, 23(7), 906-916. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2019.1566302
• Wu, T. P., Wu, H. C., Wang, C. H., Wu, H., and Wu, Y. Y. (2021). The Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on BRIC Tourism. Anatolia, 32(3), 501-509. https://doi.org/10.1080/13032917.2021.1916550
• Wu, T. P., Wu, H. C., Liu, S. B., Wu, C. F., and Wu, Y. Y. (2022). Causality Between Global Economic Policy Uncertainty and Tourism in Fragile Five Countries: A Three-dimensional Wavelet Approach. Tourism Recreation Research, 47(5-6), 608-622. https://doi.org/10.1080/02508281.2020.1870072