Dynamics of Change in Turkey-Russia Relations: 2011-2016

Year 2019, Volume: 3 Issue: 1, 1 - 15, 24.04.2019

Burak Topuzoğlu , Mehmet Akif Okur

Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyze Turkey-Russia relations
within the period of 2011 and 2016. Since the selected time period in bilateral
relations has been characterized by rapid rapprochement after a severe
political crisis, the study particularly concentrates on the impact of the
Su-24 crisis caused by the downing of a Russian jet in 2015. The paper in this
aspect aims to give an answer to the question of how bilateral relations
between Turkey and Russia have been recovered from the detrimental effects of
the 2015 crisis towards the achievement of high level political cooperation
within a short period of time. In order to analyze this research question, the
study draws on the theoretical framework of neoclassical realism as a theory of
foreign policy analysis in international relations. The study in this respect
is divided into three parts. While the first part intends to evaluate how the
change of relative distribution of power in bilateral relations have affected
the course of political relations between Turkey and Russia, the second part
focuses on the impact of domestic factors that stem from internal political
developments in both countries. The last part on the other hand attempts to
complement this analysis with an overlook on the individual dynamics by
analyzing the impact of state leaders for the resolution of the Su-24 foreign
policy crisis. In this endeavor, the paper attempts to validate the argument
that the dramatic change in Turkey-Russia relations is the outcome of
intertwined relations between structural factors, internal political
developments and individual dynamics.

Keywords

Turkey, Foreign Policy, Russia, Su-24 Crisis

Türkiye-Rusya İlişkilerinde Değişimin Dinamikleri: 2011-2016

Abstract

Bu
çalışmanın amacı, 2011 ve 2016 yılları arasında Türkiye-Rusya ilişkilerinin
incelenmesidir. Seçilen dönem iki ülke ilişkilerinde hızlı bir yeniden
yakınlaşma sürecine sahne olduğundan, çalışma özellikle 2015 yılında Rus
uçağının düşürülmesi sonucunda ortaya çıkan Su-24 siyasi krizinin etkilerine
odaklanmaktadır. Bu bağlamda çalışma, Türkiye ve Rusya arasındaki ikili
ilişkilerin, 2015 krizinin olumsuz etkilerinden yüksek düzeyli siyasi
işbirliğine, söz konusu kısa süre içinde nasıl ulaştığı sorusunun yanıtlanmasını
hedeflemektedir. Belirlenen araştırma sorusunun incelenmesi amacıyla,
uluslararası ilişkilerde bir dış politika analizi sunan neoklasik realizmin
teorik çerçevesine başvurulmaktadır. Üç bölüme ayrılan çalışmanın ilk kısmı,
ikili ilişkilerde meydana gelen göreceli güç dağılımındaki değişikliklerin
politik etkilerini incelemeyi hedeflemektedir. İkinci kısım iç politik
faktörlerin Türkiye-Rusya ilişkilerine etkilerine odaklanmaktadır. Son kısımda
ise, Su-24 dış politika krizinin çözümü sürecinde devlet liderlerinin etkileri
incelenerek çalışmanın analizi tamamlanmaya çalışılacaktır. Çalışma bu
kapsamda, Türkiye-Rusya ilişkilerinde kısa süre içinde meydana gelen büyük
değişimin; yapısal faktörler, iç politik gelişmeler ve bireysel dinamiklerin
birbirini etkiyen ilişkisinin bir sonucu olduğu argümanını desteklemeye
çalışacaktır.

Keywords

Türkiye, dış politika, Rusya, Su-24 krizi

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