Araştırma Makalesi
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Dynamics of Change in Turkey-Russia Relations: 2011-2016

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 3 Sayı: 1, 1 - 15, 24.04.2019

Öz

The aim of this study is to analyze Turkey-Russia relations
within the period of 2011 and 2016. Since the selected time period in bilateral
relations has been characterized by rapid rapprochement after a severe
political crisis, the study particularly concentrates on the impact of the
Su-24 crisis caused by the downing of a Russian jet in 2015. The paper in this
aspect aims to give an answer to the question of how bilateral relations
between Turkey and Russia have been recovered from the detrimental effects of
the 2015 crisis towards the achievement of high level political cooperation
within a short period of time. In order to analyze this research question, the
study draws on the theoretical framework of neoclassical realism as a theory of
foreign policy analysis in international relations. The study in this respect
is divided into three parts. While the first part intends to evaluate how the
change of relative distribution of power in bilateral relations have affected
the course of political relations between Turkey and Russia, the second part
focuses on the impact of domestic factors that stem from internal political
developments in both countries. The last part on the other hand attempts to
complement this analysis with an overlook on the individual dynamics by
analyzing the impact of state leaders for the resolution of the Su-24 foreign
policy crisis. In this endeavor, the paper attempts to validate the argument
that the dramatic change in Turkey-Russia relations is the outcome of
intertwined relations between structural factors, internal political
developments and individual dynamics.

Kaynakça

  • Referans1: DUGIN, Alexander. (2014), Eurasian Mission: An Introduction to Neo-Eurasianism, London: Arktos.
  • Referans2: NUGRAHA, Aryanta. (2018), Neo-Eurasianism in Russian Foreign Policy: Echoes from the Past or Compromise with the Future? , Global and Strategis, 9(1), 100-110.
  • Referans3 :GÖRENER Ş, Aylin., UCA Ş, Meltem. (2011), The Personality and Leadership Style of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: Implications for Turkish Foreign Policy, Turkish Studies, 12(3), 358-371.
  • Referans4: WILLIAMS, Brian., SOUZA, Robert. (2016), Operation ‘Retribution’: Putin’s Military Campaign in Syria, 2015-2016, Middle East Policy, 23(4), 42-45.
  • Referans5: RATHBUN, Brian. (2008), A Rose by Any Other Name: Neoclassical Realism as the Logical and Necessary Extension of Structural Realism, Security Studies, 17(1), 294-321.
  • Referans6: KALKIŞIM, Cemal., ERDOĞAN, Seven. (2018), Türkiye-Avrupa Birliği İlişkileri ve 15 Temmuz Darbe Girişimin Ardından Yaşanan Gelişmeler, KSDB, 10(18), 339-410.
  • Referans7: REUS-SMITH, Christian.,SNIDAL, Duncan. (2008), The Oxford Handbook of International Relations, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • Referans8: Ed. PIET, Rémi.,SİMAO, Piet. (2016), Security in Shared Neighbourhoods Foreign Policy of Russia, Turkey and the EU, New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Referans9: CUNNINGHAM, Finian. (2016), Erdogan Plays US and Russia, [29.11.2017],
  • Referans10:https://sputniknews.com/columnists/201608261044660930-erdogan-russia-us-jarablus/
  • Referans11: TELLAL, Erel. (2017), Avrasya’da Türkiye-Rusya İlişkleri in Kuşku ile Komşuluk: Türkiye ve Rusya İlişkilerinde Değişen Dinamikler (pp. 129-147), İstanbul: İletişim Yayınları.
  • Referans12: ROSE, Gideon. (1998), Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy, World Politics, 51(1), 144-172.
  • Referans13: DERMAN, G. Saynur., OBA, Hande. (2016), Making a Determination from the Operational Code of a New and Influential Actor: President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Bilig, 79(1), 45-67.
  • Referans14: NOTTE, Hanna. (2016), Russia in Chechnya and Syria: Pursuit of Strategic Goals, Middle East Policy, 13(1), 59-69.
  • Referans15: ÖZERTEM, S. Hasan. (2017), Turkey and Russia: A Fragile Friendship, Turkish Policy Quarterly, 5(4), 121-134.
  • Referans16: MANKOFF, Jeffrey. (2017), Russia and Turkey's Rapprochement, Foreign Affairs, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/turkey/2016-07-20/russia-and-turkeys-rapprochement
  • Referans17: MEARSHEIMER, J. John. (2001), The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, London: Norton Company.
  • Referans18: NYE, S. Joseph., WELCH, A. David. (2014), Understanding Global Conflict and Cooperation: Intro to Theory and History, London: Pearson.
  • Referans19: WALTZ, N. Kenneth. (1979), Theory of International Politics, Berkeley: University of California.
  • Referans20: RIPSMANN, M. Norrin., TALIAFERRO, W. Jeffrey., LOBELL, E. Steven. (2016), Neoclassical Theory of International Politics, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • Referans21: SCHWELLER, L. Randall. (1994), Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back In, International Security, 19(1), 72-107.
  • Referans22: AKTÜRK, Şener. (2014), Toward a Turkish-Russian Axis? Conflicts in Georgia, Syria, and Ukraine, and Cooperation over Nuclear Energy, Insight Turkey, 16(1), 13-22.
  • Referans23: _______. (2007), Turkish–Russian Relations after the Cold War (1992–2002), Turkish Studies, 7(3), 338-340.
  • Referans24:_______. (2017) Türkiye’nin Rusya ile İlişkilerinin Yükselişi ve Gerilemesi in Kuşku ile Komşuluk: Türkiye ve Rusya İlişkilerinde Değişen Dinamikler, (pp. 129-147), İstanbul: İletişim Yayınları.
  • Referans25: DYSON, B. Stephen., PARENT, J. Matthew. (2018), The Operational Code Approach to Profiling Political Leaders: Understanding Vladimir Putin, Intelligence and National Security, 33(1), 84-100.
  • Referans26: WALKER, G. Stephen., SCHAFER, Mark., YOUNG, D. Micheal. (1999), Presidential Operational Codes and Foreign Policy Conflicts in the Post-Cold War World, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 43(5), 610-616.
  • Referans27: FLANAGAN, J. Stephen. (2013), The Turkey–Russia–Iran Nexus: Eurasian Power Dynamics, The Washington Quarterly, 36(1), 165-170.
  • Referans28: WALT, M. Stephen. (2011), The End of the American Era, The National Interest, 116, 6-16.
  • Referans29: _______. (1990), The Origins of Alliances, London: Cornell University Press.
  • Referans30: LOBELL, E. Steven., RIPSMAN, M. Norrin., TALIAFERRO, W. Jeffrey. (2009), Neoclassical Realism, the State, and Foreign Policy, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009.
  • Referans31: “Turkey and Russia Push for Safe-zones in Syria”, http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/05/russia-turkey-push-safe-zones-syria-170504053138097.html [05.08.2018].
  • Referans32: “Turkey Revives Plan for Safe Zone in Syria to Stem Flow of Refugees” https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/16/turkey-safe-zone-syria-refugees-russian-airstrikes [20.11.2017].
  • Referans33: “Turkey Uneasy as U.S. Support of Syrian Kurds Grows” https://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/30/world/middleeast/turkey-uneasy-as-us-support-of-syrian-kurds-grows.html [05.08.2018].
  • Referans34: SENDEROV, Valerii.(2009), Neo-Eurasianism: Realities, Dangers, Prospects, Russian Politics and Law, 47(1), 30-35.
  • Referans35: PAPAVA, Vladimer. (2013), The Eurosianism of Russian Anti-Westernism and the Concept of ‘Central Caucaso-Asia, Russian Politics and Law, 51(6), 45-52.
  • Referans36: ZIMMERMAN, William. (2015), Slavophies and Westernizers Redux: Contemporary Russian Elite Perspectives, The National Council for Eurasian and East European Research, 7-12.
  • Referans37: ÖNİŞ, Ziya., YILMAZ, Şuhnaz. (2016), Turkey and Russia in a Shifting Global Order: Cooperation, Conflict and Asymmetric Interdependence in a Turbulent Region, Third World Quarterly, 37(1),71-95.

Türkiye-Rusya İlişkilerinde Değişimin Dinamikleri: 2011-2016

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 3 Sayı: 1, 1 - 15, 24.04.2019

Öz

Bu
çalışmanın amacı, 2011 ve 2016 yılları arasında Türkiye-Rusya ilişkilerinin
incelenmesidir. Seçilen dönem iki ülke ilişkilerinde hızlı bir yeniden
yakınlaşma sürecine sahne olduğundan, çalışma özellikle 2015 yılında Rus
uçağının düşürülmesi sonucunda ortaya çıkan Su-24 siyasi krizinin etkilerine
odaklanmaktadır. Bu bağlamda çalışma, Türkiye ve Rusya arasındaki ikili
ilişkilerin, 2015 krizinin olumsuz etkilerinden yüksek düzeyli siyasi
işbirliğine, söz konusu kısa süre içinde nasıl ulaştığı sorusunun yanıtlanmasını
hedeflemektedir. Belirlenen araştırma sorusunun incelenmesi amacıyla,
uluslararası ilişkilerde bir dış politika analizi sunan neoklasik realizmin
teorik çerçevesine başvurulmaktadır. Üç bölüme ayrılan çalışmanın ilk kısmı,
ikili ilişkilerde meydana gelen göreceli güç dağılımındaki değişikliklerin
politik etkilerini incelemeyi hedeflemektedir. İkinci kısım iç politik
faktörlerin Türkiye-Rusya ilişkilerine etkilerine odaklanmaktadır. Son kısımda
ise, Su-24 dış politika krizinin çözümü sürecinde devlet liderlerinin etkileri
incelenerek çalışmanın analizi tamamlanmaya çalışılacaktır. Çalışma bu
kapsamda, Türkiye-Rusya ilişkilerinde kısa süre içinde meydana gelen büyük
değişimin; yapısal faktörler, iç politik gelişmeler ve bireysel dinamiklerin
birbirini etkiyen ilişkisinin bir sonucu olduğu argümanını desteklemeye
çalışacaktır.

Kaynakça

  • Referans1: DUGIN, Alexander. (2014), Eurasian Mission: An Introduction to Neo-Eurasianism, London: Arktos.
  • Referans2: NUGRAHA, Aryanta. (2018), Neo-Eurasianism in Russian Foreign Policy: Echoes from the Past or Compromise with the Future? , Global and Strategis, 9(1), 100-110.
  • Referans3 :GÖRENER Ş, Aylin., UCA Ş, Meltem. (2011), The Personality and Leadership Style of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: Implications for Turkish Foreign Policy, Turkish Studies, 12(3), 358-371.
  • Referans4: WILLIAMS, Brian., SOUZA, Robert. (2016), Operation ‘Retribution’: Putin’s Military Campaign in Syria, 2015-2016, Middle East Policy, 23(4), 42-45.
  • Referans5: RATHBUN, Brian. (2008), A Rose by Any Other Name: Neoclassical Realism as the Logical and Necessary Extension of Structural Realism, Security Studies, 17(1), 294-321.
  • Referans6: KALKIŞIM, Cemal., ERDOĞAN, Seven. (2018), Türkiye-Avrupa Birliği İlişkileri ve 15 Temmuz Darbe Girişimin Ardından Yaşanan Gelişmeler, KSDB, 10(18), 339-410.
  • Referans7: REUS-SMITH, Christian.,SNIDAL, Duncan. (2008), The Oxford Handbook of International Relations, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • Referans8: Ed. PIET, Rémi.,SİMAO, Piet. (2016), Security in Shared Neighbourhoods Foreign Policy of Russia, Turkey and the EU, New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Referans9: CUNNINGHAM, Finian. (2016), Erdogan Plays US and Russia, [29.11.2017],
  • Referans10:https://sputniknews.com/columnists/201608261044660930-erdogan-russia-us-jarablus/
  • Referans11: TELLAL, Erel. (2017), Avrasya’da Türkiye-Rusya İlişkleri in Kuşku ile Komşuluk: Türkiye ve Rusya İlişkilerinde Değişen Dinamikler (pp. 129-147), İstanbul: İletişim Yayınları.
  • Referans12: ROSE, Gideon. (1998), Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy, World Politics, 51(1), 144-172.
  • Referans13: DERMAN, G. Saynur., OBA, Hande. (2016), Making a Determination from the Operational Code of a New and Influential Actor: President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Bilig, 79(1), 45-67.
  • Referans14: NOTTE, Hanna. (2016), Russia in Chechnya and Syria: Pursuit of Strategic Goals, Middle East Policy, 13(1), 59-69.
  • Referans15: ÖZERTEM, S. Hasan. (2017), Turkey and Russia: A Fragile Friendship, Turkish Policy Quarterly, 5(4), 121-134.
  • Referans16: MANKOFF, Jeffrey. (2017), Russia and Turkey's Rapprochement, Foreign Affairs, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/turkey/2016-07-20/russia-and-turkeys-rapprochement
  • Referans17: MEARSHEIMER, J. John. (2001), The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, London: Norton Company.
  • Referans18: NYE, S. Joseph., WELCH, A. David. (2014), Understanding Global Conflict and Cooperation: Intro to Theory and History, London: Pearson.
  • Referans19: WALTZ, N. Kenneth. (1979), Theory of International Politics, Berkeley: University of California.
  • Referans20: RIPSMANN, M. Norrin., TALIAFERRO, W. Jeffrey., LOBELL, E. Steven. (2016), Neoclassical Theory of International Politics, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • Referans21: SCHWELLER, L. Randall. (1994), Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back In, International Security, 19(1), 72-107.
  • Referans22: AKTÜRK, Şener. (2014), Toward a Turkish-Russian Axis? Conflicts in Georgia, Syria, and Ukraine, and Cooperation over Nuclear Energy, Insight Turkey, 16(1), 13-22.
  • Referans23: _______. (2007), Turkish–Russian Relations after the Cold War (1992–2002), Turkish Studies, 7(3), 338-340.
  • Referans24:_______. (2017) Türkiye’nin Rusya ile İlişkilerinin Yükselişi ve Gerilemesi in Kuşku ile Komşuluk: Türkiye ve Rusya İlişkilerinde Değişen Dinamikler, (pp. 129-147), İstanbul: İletişim Yayınları.
  • Referans25: DYSON, B. Stephen., PARENT, J. Matthew. (2018), The Operational Code Approach to Profiling Political Leaders: Understanding Vladimir Putin, Intelligence and National Security, 33(1), 84-100.
  • Referans26: WALKER, G. Stephen., SCHAFER, Mark., YOUNG, D. Micheal. (1999), Presidential Operational Codes and Foreign Policy Conflicts in the Post-Cold War World, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 43(5), 610-616.
  • Referans27: FLANAGAN, J. Stephen. (2013), The Turkey–Russia–Iran Nexus: Eurasian Power Dynamics, The Washington Quarterly, 36(1), 165-170.
  • Referans28: WALT, M. Stephen. (2011), The End of the American Era, The National Interest, 116, 6-16.
  • Referans29: _______. (1990), The Origins of Alliances, London: Cornell University Press.
  • Referans30: LOBELL, E. Steven., RIPSMAN, M. Norrin., TALIAFERRO, W. Jeffrey. (2009), Neoclassical Realism, the State, and Foreign Policy, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009.
  • Referans31: “Turkey and Russia Push for Safe-zones in Syria”, http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/05/russia-turkey-push-safe-zones-syria-170504053138097.html [05.08.2018].
  • Referans32: “Turkey Revives Plan for Safe Zone in Syria to Stem Flow of Refugees” https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/16/turkey-safe-zone-syria-refugees-russian-airstrikes [20.11.2017].
  • Referans33: “Turkey Uneasy as U.S. Support of Syrian Kurds Grows” https://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/30/world/middleeast/turkey-uneasy-as-us-support-of-syrian-kurds-grows.html [05.08.2018].
  • Referans34: SENDEROV, Valerii.(2009), Neo-Eurasianism: Realities, Dangers, Prospects, Russian Politics and Law, 47(1), 30-35.
  • Referans35: PAPAVA, Vladimer. (2013), The Eurosianism of Russian Anti-Westernism and the Concept of ‘Central Caucaso-Asia, Russian Politics and Law, 51(6), 45-52.
  • Referans36: ZIMMERMAN, William. (2015), Slavophies and Westernizers Redux: Contemporary Russian Elite Perspectives, The National Council for Eurasian and East European Research, 7-12.
  • Referans37: ÖNİŞ, Ziya., YILMAZ, Şuhnaz. (2016), Turkey and Russia in a Shifting Global Order: Cooperation, Conflict and Asymmetric Interdependence in a Turbulent Region, Third World Quarterly, 37(1),71-95.
Toplam 37 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Burak Topuzoğlu 0000-0001-5961-4291

Mehmet Akif Okur

Yayımlanma Tarihi 24 Nisan 2019
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2019 Cilt: 3 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Topuzoğlu, B., & Okur, M. A. (2019). Dynamics of Change in Turkey-Russia Relations: 2011-2016. Yıldız Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 3(1), 1-15.
AMA Topuzoğlu B, Okur MA. Dynamics of Change in Turkey-Russia Relations: 2011-2016. Yıldız Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi. Nisan 2019;3(1):1-15.
Chicago Topuzoğlu, Burak, ve Mehmet Akif Okur. “Dynamics of Change in Turkey-Russia Relations: 2011-2016”. Yıldız Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi 3, sy. 1 (Nisan 2019): 1-15.
EndNote Topuzoğlu B, Okur MA (01 Nisan 2019) Dynamics of Change in Turkey-Russia Relations: 2011-2016. Yıldız Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi 3 1 1–15.
IEEE B. Topuzoğlu ve M. A. Okur, “Dynamics of Change in Turkey-Russia Relations: 2011-2016”, Yıldız Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, c. 3, sy. 1, ss. 1–15, 2019.
ISNAD Topuzoğlu, Burak - Okur, Mehmet Akif. “Dynamics of Change in Turkey-Russia Relations: 2011-2016”. Yıldız Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi 3/1 (Nisan 2019), 1-15.
JAMA Topuzoğlu B, Okur MA. Dynamics of Change in Turkey-Russia Relations: 2011-2016. Yıldız Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi. 2019;3:1–15.
MLA Topuzoğlu, Burak ve Mehmet Akif Okur. “Dynamics of Change in Turkey-Russia Relations: 2011-2016”. Yıldız Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, c. 3, sy. 1, 2019, ss. 1-15.
Vancouver Topuzoğlu B, Okur MA. Dynamics of Change in Turkey-Russia Relations: 2011-2016. Yıldız Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi. 2019;3(1):1-15.