Application of Statistical Distributions to PM10 Concentrations: Van, Türkiye

Abstract

Air pollution is one of the most serious environmental pollution problems that adversely affect human health and the environment. Industrializing and frequent use of low-quality coals for heating purposes and incorrect combustion techniques may cause intense air pollution in the winter season. There are several studies on air quality employing different methods using various air pollutants (carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, ground-level ozone, and particle pollution) in the related literature. In this study PM_10 (concentration of 10 micrometers or smaller size of air pollutants) levels in Van province which is one of the most crowded provinces in Eastern Anatolia, Türkiye. Due to the fuels used for heating in Van, the air quality may be higher than limits set by regulations several times during the year. In this study, PM_10 levels of Van are modeled using lognormal, Weibull, and Gamma distributions. Information and goodness of fit criteria are used to compare their performance. In addition, predictions of exceedances are provided for the PM_10 concentration higher than given limits. According to the results, the Gamma distribution performed better than the other two distributions in modeling the PM_10 concentrations in Van and predicted the exceedances accurately.

Keywords

• Van.
• Air pollution
• lognormal distribution
• Türkiye

PM10 Konsantrasyonunun İstatistiksel Dağılımına İlişkin Bir Uygulama: Van, Türkiye

Abstract

Hava kirliliği, insan sağlığını ve çevreyi olumsuz yönde etkileyen en ciddi çevre kirliliği sorunlarından biridir. Sanayileşme ve kalitesiz kömürlerin ısınma amacıyla sıklıkla kullanılması ve yanlış yakma teknikleri kış mevsiminde yoğun hava kirliliğine neden olabilmektedir. İlgili literatürde çeşitli hava kirleticilerine (karbon monoksit, kurşun, nitrojen oksitler, yer seviyesinde ozon ve partikül kirliliği) ait ölçümlerin farklı yöntemler kullanarak modellenmesine ve incelenmesine ilişkin birçok çalışma bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışmada Türkiye'nin Doğu Anadolu bölgesindeki en kalabalık illerden biri olan Van ilindeki PM_10 (10 mikrometreden küçük partikül madde) konsantrasyonu, lognormal, Weibull ve Gamma olasılık fonksiyonları kullanılarak modellenmiştir. Ek olarak, verilen limitlerden daha yüksek PM_10 konsantrasyonu için aşım kestirimleri verilmiştir. Van ilinde ısınma amaçlı kullanılan yakıtlar nedeniyle hava kalitesi yıl içerisinde çeşitli zamanlarda hava kalitesi yönetmelikle belirlenen limitlerinin üzerinde olabilmektedir. Bu sebeple hava kalitesi ile ilgili çalışmalar önem arz etmektedir. Çalışmada kullanılan veri seti, Kasım 2021 ile Mart 2022 tarihleri arasında ölçülen PM_10 konsantrasyonlarını içermektedir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre Van ili PM_10 konsantrasyonlarının modellenmesinde Gamma dağılımının diğer dağılmlara göre daha bir iyi performans gösterdiği tespit edilmiştir.

Keywords

• Hava kirliliği
• lognormal dağılımı
• Türkiye
• Van.

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