Türkiye’de Jeopolitik Risk ve Turizm İlişkisi: Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Analizi

Abstract

Gelişmekte olan ülkeler için hayati öneme sahip olan turizm sektörü, ekonomik büyümenin itici gücüdür. Son derece hassas bir yapıya sahip olan turizm sektörünü etkileyebilecek risk faktörlerinin araştırılması önem arz etmektedir. Özellikle jeopolitik gerilimlerin merkezinde yer alan Türkiye’de, jeopolitik risk ve turizm ilişkisinin araştırılması bir gereklilik olarak karşımıza çıkmıştır. Bu bağlamda çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye örneğinde jeopolitik risk ve turizm arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektir. Bu çalışmada 2003:02-2021:01 döneminde Türkiye’nin turist sayısı ile jeopolitik risk, brent petrol, reel efektif döviz kuru ve TÜFE arasındaki ilişki Fourier Toda-Yamamoto (TY) nedensellik testi ve Kesirli Fourier Toda Yamamoto nedensellik testi yardımıyla analiz edilmiştir. Fourier TY nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre, BRENT ve TÜFE değişkeninden TS değişkenine, TS değişkeninden BRENT değişkenine ve REER değişkeninden TÜFE değişkenine doğru bir nedensellik ilişkisi vardır. Ayrıca şokların kalıcı olup olmadığını test etmek için yapılan Kesirli Fourier TY nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre BRENT ve TÜFE’den TS’ye, TS’den BRENT ve TÜFE’ye doğru nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğu görülmektedir. Ayrıca REER’den TÜFE’ye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi vardır. Elde edilen sonuçlar, şokların kalıcı olduğunu göstermektedir. İncelenen literatüre istinaden jeopolitik risklerin turist sayısını olumsuz etkilemesi beklenirken, Türkiye örneğinde jeopolitik risklerle turist sayısı arasında herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilememiştir.

Keywords

• Jeopolitik risk
• turizm
• Fourier TY Nedensellik

The Relationship of Geopolitical Risk and Tourism in Turkey: Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Causes Analysis

Abstract

Economic growth is fueled by the tourism industry, which is crucial for emerging nations. The risk variables that can have an impact on the tourism industry, which has a very delicate structure, must be looked into. Researching the link between geopolitical risk and tourism has become necessary, especially in Turkey, where geopolitical tensions are at their highest. The study's objective is to investigate the connection between geopolitical risk and tourism in the context of Turkey. With the aid of the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto (TY) causality test and the Fractional Fourier Toda Yamamoto causality test, the relationship between the number of tourists, geopolitical risk, Brent oil, real effective exchange rate, and CPI in Turkey during the 2003:02-2021:01 period was examined in this study. The Fourier TY causality test revealed a causal relationship between BRENT and CPI variables and TS variables, as well as a causal relationship between TS variables and BRENT variables and a causal relationship between REER variables and CPI variables. Additionally, it can be observed that there is a causative relationship between BRENT and CPI and TS, as well as between TS and BRENT and CPI, according to the findings of the Fractional Fourier TY causality test used to determine whether the shocks are permanent. In addition, there is a one-way causality relationship from REER to CPI. The results show that the shocks are permanent. Based on the literature reviewed, while geopolitical risks are expected to negatively affect the number of tourists, no causal relationship could be found between geopolitical risks and the number of tourists in the case of Turkey.

Keywords

• Geopolitical risk
• tourism
• Fourier TY causility

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