Yenilenebilir Enerji, Teknolojik Yenilik ve Beşeri Sermayenin Türkiye’nin Çevre Kalitesi Üzerindeki Rolü: LCC Hipotezinin Yumuşak Yapısal Kırılmalarla Test Edilmesi

Abstract

Yeni sanayileşen ekonomiler, batılı ulusların refah düzeyini yakalama arzusuyla hızlı bir kalkınma çabası içindedir. Ancak, bu güçlü ekonomik dinamizmin ortasında, dünya giderek derinleşen bir iklim değişikliği kriziyle yüzleşmektedir. Bu bakımdan, gelişmekte olan ülkelerin sürdürülebilir kalkınma hedeflerini desteklerken aynı zamanda çevresel kalitelerini artırmalarına katkıda bulunan faktörlerin belirlenmesi zorunlu hale gelmektedir. Bu noktadan hareketle bu çalışma, STIRPAT modelini genişleterek Türkiye'de yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi, teknolojik yenilik ve beşeri sermayenin çevresel etkilerini incelemeyi ve "Yük Kapasite Eğrisi" (YKE) hipotezinin geçerliliğini test etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaçla çalışmada 1980’den 2019’a uzanan yıllık veriler literatüre henüz yeni kazandırılan Fourier terimli "genişletilmiş gecikmesi dağıtılmış otoregresif" (A-ARDL) yaklaşımı kullanılarak analiz edilmektedir. Ampirik bulgular, LCC hipotezinin Türkiye'de hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde geçerli olduğunu kanıtlamaktadır. Ayrıca sonuçlar, yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi ve beşeri sermayenin uzun vadede çevresel kaliteyi önemli ölçüde artırdığını, teknolojik inovasyonun ise çevre üzerinde istatistiki açıdan anlamlı bir etkisinin olmadığını ortaya koymaktadır. Bununla birlikte, bulgular nüfus artışının kısa vadede çevre üzerinde olumlu bir etkiye sahip olduğunu, ancak uzun vadede çevresel kaliteyi düşürdüğünü göstermektedir.

Keywords

• Yenilenebilir enerji
• teknolojik inovasyon
• beşeri sermaye
• STIRPAT model
• LCC hipotezi

The Role of Renewable Energy, Technological Innovation, and Human Capital on Environmental Quality in Türkiye: Testing the LCC Hypothesis with Smooth Structural Shifts

Abstract

Newly industrializing economies are ardently striving for rapid development, aspiring to emulate the affluence of Western nations. However, amidst this relentless economic dynamism, the world grapples with an escalating climate change crisis. Therefore, it becomes imperative to identify the factors contributing to improving developing nations' environmental quality while concurrently advancing their sustainable development objectives. In this regard, the present study aims to dissect the environmental implications of renewable energy consumption, technological innovation, and human capital and examine the "Load Capacity Curve" (LCC) hypothesis in Türkiye through an extension of the STIRPAT model. To achieve this objective, the research operates a novel econometric methodology, namely the "augmented autoregressive distributed lag" (A-ARDL) approach with Fourier terms, to analyze yearly data from 1980 to 2019. The empirical findings substantiate the validation of the LCC hypothesis in Türkiye, both in the short and long term. Furthermore, the results unveil that renewable energy consumption and human capital significantly bolster ecological welfare over the long term, whereas technological innovation exhibits no discernible impact on the environment. Additionally, the outcomes display that population growth positively impacts the environment in the short term; nevertheless, over the long term, it becomes detrimental to environmental quality.

Keywords

• Renewable energy
• technological innovation
• human capital
• STIRPAT model
• LCC hypothesis

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